| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0475220280630285 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 266 | 266 | 0 |
| 4 | 264 | 265 | -1 |
| 5 | 262 | 262.952477971937 | -0.952477971936958 |
| 6 | 261 | 260.907214287025 | 0.0927857129748304 |
| 7 | 262 | 259.911623652281 | 2.08837634771902 |
| 8 | 264 | 261.010867531683 | 2.98913246831654 |
| 9 | 265 | 263.152917168727 | 1.8470828312731 |
| 10 | 265 | 264.240694290869 | 0.759305709130558 |
| 11 | 266 | 264.276778038087 | 1.72322196191288 |
| 12 | 268 | 265.35866904052 | 2.64133095948 |
| 13 | 260 | 267.4841904445 | -7.48419044450014 |
| 14 | 264 | 259.128526536168 | 4.87147346383244 |
| 15 | 265 | 263.360028834824 | 1.63997116517589 |
| 16 | 262 | 264.437963590558 | -2.43796359055813 |
| 17 | 258 | 261.322106616391 | -3.32210661639101 |
| 18 | 265 | 257.164233372538 | 7.83576662746151 |
| 19 | 273 | 264.536604894104 | 8.46339510589593 |
| 20 | 273 | 272.938802593835 | 0.0611974061650358 |
| 21 | 270 | 272.941710818688 | -2.94171081868814 |
| 22 | 263 | 269.801914754609 | -6.80191475460907 |
| 23 | 260 | 262.478673970758 | -2.47867397075822 |
| 24 | 257 | 259.360882356761 | -2.36088235676078 |
| 25 | 248 | 256.248688439149 | -8.24868843914925 |
| 26 | 248 | 246.856694035661 | 1.14330596433916 |
| 27 | 237 | 246.911026253783 | -9.9110262537828 |
| 28 | 228 | 235.440034186017 | -7.44003418601713 |
| 29 | 225 | 226.086468672639 | -1.08646867263931 |
| 30 | 231 | 223.034837477889 | 7.96516252211146 |
| 31 | 243 | 229.413358154791 | 13.5866418452091 |
| 32 | 250 | 242.059022929841 | 7.94097707015874 |
| 33 | 246 | 249.436394265017 | -3.43639426501721 |
| 34 | 240 | 245.273089840319 | -5.27308984031944 |
| 35 | 236 | 239.022501916949 | -3.0225019169489 |
| 36 | 235 | 234.878866496031 | 0.121133503968906 |
| 37 | 225 | 233.884623005806 | -8.88462300580608 |
| 38 | 230 | 223.462407701995 | 6.53759229800528 |
| 39 | 225 | 228.773087346645 | -3.77308734664518 |
| 40 | 221 | 223.593782583874 | -2.59378258387366 |
| 41 | 231 | 219.470520775133 | 11.5294792248666 |
| 42 | 234 | 230.018425010410 | 3.98157498959037 |
| 43 | 249 | 233.2076375288 | 15.7923624712000 |
| 44 | 257 | 248.958122621338 | 8.04187737866212 |
| 45 | 253 | 257.340288943806 | -4.34028894380612 |
| 46 | 252 | 253.134029610817 | -1.13402961081690 |
| 47 | 245 | 252.080138223827 | -7.08013822382733 |
| 48 | 239 | 244.743675696464 | -5.74367569646449 |
| 49 | 229 | 238.470724578832 | -9.47072457883218 |
| 50 | 232 | 228.020656539620 | 3.97934346038031 |
| 51 | 222 | 231.209763011216 | -9.20976301121632 |
| 52 | 218 | 220.772096394943 | -2.77209639494345 |
| 53 | 223 | 216.640360752270 | 6.35963924773046 |
| 54 | 221 | 221.942583707071 | -0.942583707070924 |
| 55 | 230 | 219.897790217692 | 10.1022097823083 |
| 56 | 234 | 229.377867714465 | 4.6221322855348 |
| 57 | 237 | 233.597520814649 | 3.40247918535059 |
| 58 | 226 | 236.759213525980 | -10.7592135259795 |
| 59 | 215 | 225.247913878862 | -10.2479138788618 |
| 60 | 211 | 213.760912227923 | -2.76091222792303 |
| 61 | 203 | 209.629708079548 | -6.62970807954812 |
| 62 | 202 | 201.314650906142 | 0.685349093857866 |
| 63 | 187 | 200.347220085013 | -13.3472200850134 |
| 64 | 179 | 184.71293311757 | -5.71293311757 |
| 65 | 181 | 176.441442949635 | 4.55855705036538 |
| 66 | 172 | 178.658074825709 | -6.65807482570901 |
| 67 | 182 | 169.341669606996 | 12.6583303930041 |
| 68 | 180 | 179.943219139163 | 0.0567808608366533 |
| 69 | 175 | 177.945917480825 | -2.94591748082547 |
| 70 | 163 | 172.805921507630 | -9.80592150763033 |
| 71 | 160 | 160.339924230561 | -0.339924230560854 |
| 72 | 151 | 157.323770341737 | -6.32377034173683 |
| 73 | 145 | 148.023251950093 | -3.02325195009269 |
| 74 | 140 | 141.879580886079 | -1.87958088607877 |
| 75 | 125 | 136.790259390464 | -11.7902593904638 |
| 76 | 122 | 121.229962352840 | 0.770037647160208 |
| 77 | 124 | 118.266556103518 | 5.73344389648227 |
| 78 | 108 | 120.539020985264 | -12.5390209852642 |
| 79 | 115 | 103.943141278120 | 11.0568587218805 |
| 80 | 116 | 111.468585628590 | 4.53141437141032 |
| 81 | 104 | 112.683927629513 | -8.68392762951305 |
| 82 | 98 | 100.271249777006 | -2.27124977700602 |
| 83 | 101 | 94.163315381365 | 6.836684618635 |
| 84 | 91 | 97.4882084996698 | -6.48820849966984 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 87.1798756732697 | 74.3685115015469 | 99.9912398449926 |
| 86 | 83.3597513465395 | 64.8062490078778 | 101.913253685201 |
| 87 | 79.5396270198092 | 56.2792418178234 | 102.800012221795 |
| 88 | 75.719502693079 | 48.2365699427932 | 103.202435443365 |
| 89 | 71.8993783663487 | 40.470538172337 | 103.328218560360 |
| 90 | 68.0792540396185 | 32.8774350756663 | 103.281073003571 |
| 91 | 64.2591297128882 | 25.3973090102854 | 103.120950415491 |
| 92 | 60.439005386158 | 17.9921860204390 | 102.885824751877 |
| 93 | 56.6188810594277 | 10.6364552352157 | 102.601306883640 |
| 94 | 52.7987567326975 | 3.31203661472124 | 102.285476850674 |
| 95 | 48.9786324059672 | -3.99428286974069 | 101.951547681675 |
| 96 | 45.158508079237 | -11.2924234230024 | 101.609439581476 |
