| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999947806481961 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 32 | 33 | -1 |
| 3 | 31 | 32.000052193518 | -1.00005219351804 |
| 4 | 29 | 31.0000521962422 | -2.0000521962422 |
| 5 | 49 | 29.0001043897604 | 19.9998956102396 |
| 6 | 48 | 48.9989561350877 | -0.998956135087695 |
| 7 | 33 | 48.000052139035 | -15.0000521390351 |
| 8 | 23 | 33.0007829054919 | -10.0007829054919 |
| 9 | 24 | 23.000521976043 | 0.999478023957021 |
| 10 | 24 | 23.9999478337257 | 5.21662742727358e-05 |
| 11 | 25 | 23.9999999972773 | 1.00000000272274 |
| 12 | 27 | 24.9999478064818 | 2.00005219351818 |
| 13 | 24 | 26.9998956102398 | -2.99989561023976 |
| 14 | 21 | 24.0001565751056 | -3.00015657510565 |
| 15 | 15 | 21.0001565887263 | -6.00015658872632 |
| 16 | 21 | 15.0003131692811 | 5.99968683071885 |
| 17 | 49 | 20.9996868552372 | 28.0003131447628 |
| 18 | 48 | 48.9985385651508 | -0.998538565150788 |
| 19 | 35 | 48.0000521172406 | -13.0000521172406 |
| 20 | 36 | 35.0006785184547 | 0.999321481545316 |
| 21 | 51 | 35.9999478418962 | 15.0000521581038 |
| 22 | 50 | 50.9992170945071 | -0.999217094507102 |
| 23 | 61 | 50.0000521526554 | 10.9999478473446 |
| 24 | 63 | 60.9994258740236 | 2.00057412597639 |
| 25 | 61 | 62.9998955829983 | -1.99989558299827 |
| 26 | 62 | 61.0001043815862 | 0.999895618413817 |
| 27 | 58 | 61.99994781193 | -3.99994781193001 |
| 28 | 65 | 58.0002087713483 | 6.99979122865172 |
| 29 | 93 | 64.9996346562702 | 28.0003653437298 |
| 30 | 94 | 92.9985385624263 | 1.00146143757365 |
| 31 | 86 | 93.9999477302044 | -7.9999477302044 |
| 32 | 88 | 86.0004175454162 | 1.99958245458383 |
| 33 | 102 | 87.9998956347571 | 14.0001043652429 |
| 34 | 107 | 101.9992692853 | 5.00073071469973 |
| 35 | 121 | 106.999738994271 | 14.0002610057288 |
| 36 | 127 | 120.999269277125 | 6.00073072287535 |
| 37 | 125 | 126.999686800753 | -1.99968680075277 |
| 38 | 128 | 125.000104370689 | 2.9998956293109 |
| 39 | 117 | 127.999843424893 | -10.9998434248934 |
| 40 | 127 | 117.000574120526 | 9.99942587947378 |
| 41 | 160 | 126.999478094785 | 33.000521905215 |
| 42 | 162 | 159.998277586665 | 2.00172241333536 |
| 43 | 153 | 161.999895523065 | -8.9998955230651 |
| 44 | 160 | 153.000469736209 | 6.99953026379066 |
| 45 | 177 | 159.999634669891 | 17.0003653301091 |
| 46 | 178 | 176.999112691125 | 1.00088730887452 |
| 47 | 196 | 177.99994776017 | 18.0000522398298 |
| 48 | 212 | 195.999060513949 | 16.0009394860513 |
| 49 | 212 | 211.999164854676 | 0.000835145323691222 |
| 50 | 211 | 211.999999956411 | -0.999999956410818 |
| 51 | 204 | 211.000052193516 | -7.00005219351576 |
| 52 | 216 | 204.00036535735 | 11.9996346426496 |
| 53 | 248 | 215.999373696853 | 32.0006263031472 |
| 54 | 250 | 247.998329774734 | 2.0016702252662 |
| 55 | 240 | 249.999895525789 | -9.99989552578899 |
| 56 | 249 | 240.000521929728 | 8.99947807027249 |
| 57 | 275 | 248.999530285579 | 26.000469714421 |
| 58 | 277 | 274.998642944015 | 2.00135705598507 |
| 59 | 286 | 276.999895542134 | 9.00010445786558 |
| 60 | 302 | 285.999530252886 | 16.0004697471144 |
| 61 | 290 | 301.999164879194 | -11.9991648791936 |
| 62 | 290 | 290.000626278629 | -0.000626278628544696 |
| 63 | 277 | 290.000000032688 | -13.0000000326877 |
| 64 | 285 | 277.000678515736 | 7.99932148426382 |
| 65 | 311 | 284.99958248727 | 26.0004175127302 |
| 66 | 300 | 310.99864294674 | -10.9986429467396 |
| 67 | 291 | 300.000574057869 | -9.00057405786902 |
| 68 | 299 | 291.000469771624 | 7.99953022837553 |
| 69 | 332 | 298.999582476375 | 33.0004175236253 |
| 70 | 337 | 331.998277592113 | 5.00172240788731 |
| 71 | 343 | 336.999738942511 | 6.00026105748873 |
| 72 | 360 | 342.999686825266 | 17.0003131747337 |
| 73 | 353 | 359.999112693848 | -6.99911269384768 |
| 74 | 351 | 353.000365308315 | -2.00036530831466 |
| 75 | 341 | 351.000104406103 | -10.0001044061028 |
| 76 | 348 | 341.00052194063 | 6.99947805937029 |
| 77 | 381 | 347.999634672616 | 33.0003653273844 |
| 78 | 358 | 380.998277594837 | -22.998277594837 |
| 79 | 353 | 358.001200361017 | -5.00120036101652 |
| 80 | 358 | 353.000261030241 | 4.99973896975877 |
| 81 | 399 | 357.999739046034 | 41.0002609539661 |
| 82 | 409 | 398.99786005214 | 10.0021399478597 |
| 83 | 407 | 408.999477953128 | -1.99947795312823 |
| 84 | 419 | 407.000104359789 | 11.9998956402114 |
| 85 | 418 | 418.99937368323 | -0.99937368323043 |
| 86 | 421 | 418.000052160828 | 2.99994783917163 |
| 87 | 414 | 420.999843422168 | -6.99984342216834 |
| 88 | 424 | 414.000365346454 | 9.99963465354608 |
| 89 | 463 | 423.999478083888 | 39.0005219161117 |
| 90 | 437 | 462.997964425556 | -25.9979644255558 |
| 91 | 430 | 437.001356925225 | -7.0013569252252 |
| 92 | 436 | 430.000365425449 | 5.99963457455101 |
| 93 | 474 | 435.999686857965 | 38.0003131420354 |
| 94 | 489 | 473.998016629971 | 15.0019833700294 |
| 95 | 482 | 488.99921699371 | -6.99921699371038 |
| 96 | 492 | 482.000365313758 | 9.99963468624156 |
| 97 | 502 | 491.999478083887 | 10.0005219161134 |
| 98 | 500 | 501.999478037579 | -1.99947803757897 |
| 99 | 493 | 500.000104359793 | -7.000104359793 |
| 100 | 504 | 493.000365360073 | 10.9996346399268 |
| 101 | 538 | 503.999425890371 | 34.000574109629 |
| 102 | 516 | 537.998225390422 | -21.9982253904219 |
| 103 | 502 | 516.001148164774 | -14.0011481647738 |
| 104 | 501 | 502.00073076918 | -1.00073076917931 |
| 105 | 541 | 501.00005223166 | 39.9999477683405 |
| 106 | 571 | 540.997912262005 | 30.0020877379953 |
| 107 | 559 | 570.998434085492 | -11.9984340854925 |
| 108 | 569 | 559.000626240486 | 9.99937375951413 |
| 109 | 576 | 568.999478097505 | 7.00052190249471 |
| 110 | 573 | 575.999634618134 | -2.99963461813377 |
| 111 | 562 | 573.000156561484 | -11.0001565614835 |
| 112 | 570 | 562.00057413687 | 7.99942586313011 |
| 113 | 597 | 569.999582481822 | 27.0004175181781 |
| 114 | 573 | 596.998590753221 | -23.9985907532213 |
| 115 | 562 | 573.001252570879 | -11.0012525708794 |
| 116 | 556 | 562.000574194074 | -6.00057419407449 |
| 117 | 600 | 556.000313191077 | 43.9996868089225 |
| 118 | 630 | 599.997703501553 | 30.0022964984472 |
| 119 | 624 | 629.998434074597 | -5.9984340745965 |
| 120 | 634 | 624.000313079377 | 9.99968692062293 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 633.99947808116 | 605.147847133371 | 662.85110902895 |
| 122 | 633.99947808116 | 593.198175093878 | 674.800781068442 |
| 123 | 633.99947808116 | 584.028726209965 | 683.970229952355 |
| 124 | 633.99947808116 | 576.298474973024 | 691.700481189296 |
| 125 | 633.99947808116 | 569.487963784892 | 698.510992377429 |
| 126 | 633.99947808116 | 563.330777839043 | 704.668178323278 |
| 127 | 633.99947808116 | 557.668652649866 | 710.330303512455 |
| 128 | 633.99947808116 | 552.398469336566 | 715.600486825754 |
| 129 | 633.99947808116 | 547.448600874468 | 720.550355287852 |
| 130 | 633.99947808116 | 542.766895840163 | 725.232060322158 |
| 131 | 633.99947808116 | 538.313983989982 | 729.684972172339 |
| 132 | 633.99947808116 | 534.05927847867 | 733.93967768365 |
