| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.218782691587284 |
| beta | 0.0803415209988776 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 302 | 309.004540598291 | -7.0045405982907 |
| 14 | 296 | 301.106960022291 | -5.10696002229099 |
| 15 | 282 | 285.951437155768 | -3.95143715576808 |
| 16 | 282 | 285.270933627342 | -3.27093362734234 |
| 17 | 298 | 300.806818198952 | -2.8068181989525 |
| 18 | 300 | 302.894906811642 | -2.89490681164233 |
| 19 | 289 | 285.912838416014 | 3.08716158398636 |
| 20 | 275 | 274.918807116163 | 0.0811928838371045 |
| 21 | 270 | 275.018549047721 | -5.01854904772102 |
| 22 | 269 | 273.372676332563 | -4.37267633256295 |
| 23 | 268 | 272.874582728492 | -4.87458272849193 |
| 24 | 260 | 273.222665189107 | -13.2226651891068 |
| 25 | 271 | 271.748177474684 | -0.748177474684326 |
| 26 | 269 | 265.944231936018 | 3.0557680639825 |
| 27 | 260 | 252.863194437664 | 7.13680556233624 |
| 28 | 262 | 254.721036662147 | 7.2789633378535 |
| 29 | 285 | 272.693879189599 | 12.3061208104014 |
| 30 | 286 | 278.051494203578 | 7.94850579642156 |
| 31 | 272 | 268.337563738436 | 3.66243626156364 |
| 32 | 248 | 255.353681162444 | -7.35368116244422 |
| 33 | 240 | 249.944712765849 | -9.94471276584943 |
| 34 | 234 | 247.740976903980 | -13.7409769039805 |
| 35 | 231 | 244.651822838094 | -13.6518228380943 |
| 36 | 222 | 236.254309606184 | -14.2543096061836 |
| 37 | 233 | 243.977647140466 | -10.9776471404656 |
| 38 | 236 | 238.405817457709 | -2.40581745770933 |
| 39 | 226 | 226.720495262383 | -0.720495262382599 |
| 40 | 232 | 226.234680329796 | 5.76531967020384 |
| 41 | 248 | 247.041388581799 | 0.958611418200803 |
| 42 | 253 | 245.550384041372 | 7.4496159586279 |
| 43 | 233 | 231.408447621158 | 1.59155237884170 |
| 44 | 216 | 208.358603486218 | 7.64139651378201 |
| 45 | 209 | 203.462806894809 | 5.53719310519057 |
| 46 | 202 | 201.209334537847 | 0.790665462152901 |
| 47 | 204 | 201.153326255442 | 2.84667374455813 |
| 48 | 193 | 195.968950264157 | -2.96895026415689 |
| 49 | 201 | 208.993705898151 | -7.99370589815149 |
| 50 | 201 | 211.096213732631 | -10.0962137326314 |
| 51 | 188 | 199.234833252381 | -11.2348332523807 |
| 52 | 198 | 201.520544447966 | -3.52054444796642 |
| 53 | 220 | 216.382412343875 | 3.61758765612541 |
| 54 | 225 | 220.432598263953 | 4.56740173604695 |
| 55 | 215 | 200.921568339763 | 14.0784316602368 |
| 56 | 198 | 185.387272009002 | 12.6127279909977 |
| 57 | 195 | 180.080051124640 | 14.9199488753598 |
| 58 | 183 | 176.480992162869 | 6.51900783713114 |
| 59 | 180 | 179.694822671334 | 0.305177328666275 |
| 60 | 170 | 169.776859758079 | 0.223140241920760 |
| 61 | 175 | 179.996386554005 | -4.99638655400531 |
| 62 | 180 | 181.586648435665 | -1.58664843566476 |
| 63 | 161 | 171.321587716897 | -10.3215877168967 |
| 64 | 174 | 180.473773025011 | -6.4737730250111 |
| 65 | 195 | 200.854183947808 | -5.85418394780822 |
| 66 | 198 | 203.995858860635 | -5.99585886063471 |
| 67 | 188 | 189.840015066262 | -1.84001506626228 |
| 68 | 173 | 169.634264698643 | 3.36573530135686 |
| 69 | 162 | 163.900124932070 | -1.90012493206956 |
| 70 | 149 | 149.556234523558 | -0.556234523558231 |
| 71 | 140 | 145.741478739935 | -5.74147873993545 |
| 72 | 129 | 133.703945470192 | -4.70394547019154 |
| 73 | 132 | 137.948743610793 | -5.9487436107934 |
| 74 | 133 | 141.158469882299 | -8.1584698822985 |
| 75 | 116 | 121.680284717314 | -5.68028471731375 |
| 76 | 128 | 133.984030051951 | -5.98403005195141 |
| 77 | 148 | 154.094374174646 | -6.09437417464602 |
| 78 | 154 | 156.207351028044 | -2.20735102804406 |
| 79 | 152 | 145.328106444901 | 6.67189355509936 |
| 80 | 141 | 130.402175476366 | 10.5978245236344 |
| 81 | 136 | 121.614370176803 | 14.385629823197 |
| 82 | 119 | 111.647511309316 | 7.35248869068398 |
| 83 | 114 | 105.415378851855 | 8.58462114814515 |
| 84 | 100 | 97.4776359741269 | 2.52236402587312 |
| 85 | 108 | 102.612935710898 | 5.3870642891025 |
| 86 | 115 | 107.0576854272 | 7.94231457279994 |
| 87 | 101 | 93.8023045270182 | 7.19769547298182 |
| 88 | 116 | 109.676828639599 | 6.32317136040099 |
| 89 | 131 | 133.600491189554 | -2.60049118955439 |
| 90 | 133 | 140.782810590659 | -7.78281059065907 |
| 91 | 135 | 136.790701459255 | -1.79070145925476 |
| 92 | 124 | 124.101886486768 | -0.101886486767697 |
| 93 | 131 | 116.765776364523 | 14.2342236354766 |
| 94 | 113 | 102.102227231837 | 10.8977727681633 |
| 95 | 118 | 98.5014677857156 | 19.4985322142844 |
| 96 | 99 | 89.300560033568 | 9.69943996643195 |
| 97 | 107 | 99.4551875326034 | 7.5448124673966 |
| 98 | 112 | 107.617302754157 | 4.38269724584303 |
| 99 | 106 | 94.1879430838786 | 11.8120569161214 |
| 100 | 121 | 111.656437631496 | 9.34356236850446 |
| 101 | 138 | 130.590301631508 | 7.40969836849243 |
| 102 | 134 | 137.410823895043 | -3.41082389504265 |
| 103 | 132 | 140.62988128064 | -8.62988128064012 |
| 104 | 121 | 129.217401209149 | -8.21740120914924 |
| 105 | 132 | 132.616022763925 | -0.616022763924605 |
| 106 | 113 | 113.146624311751 | -0.146624311750983 |
| 107 | 112 | 114.704093756428 | -2.70409375642821 |
| 108 | 91 | 93.4556419524094 | -2.45564195240935 |
| 109 | 96 | 99.5192883691687 | -3.51928836916871 |
| 110 | 99 | 102.847566041112 | -3.84756604111158 |
| 111 | 99 | 93.3339408465313 | 5.66605915346872 |
| 112 | 110 | 107.333765803340 | 2.66623419666018 |
| 113 | 127 | 122.983007323985 | 4.01699267601525 |
| 114 | 122 | 120.235479683790 | 1.76452031621037 |
| 115 | 124 | 120.227958255215 | 3.77204174478526 |
| 116 | 114 | 111.787397013805 | 2.21260298619532 |
| 117 | 129 | 123.525939196962 | 5.4740608030381 |
| 118 | 113 | 105.982383077218 | 7.01761692278161 |
| 119 | 115 | 107.46198863127 | 7.53801136872994 |
| 120 | 94 | 89.1811194332829 | 4.81888056671713 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 96.6659256191486 | 82.533244564833 | 110.798606673464 |
| 122 | 101.230125324693 | 86.7080403614705 | 115.752210287916 |
| 123 | 100.780538457616 | 85.8215762634004 | 115.739500651832 |
| 124 | 111.887667153485 | 96.4443874366208 | 127.330946870348 |
| 125 | 128.652407983997 | 112.677822323689 | 144.626993644306 |
| 126 | 123.839342757327 | 107.287259334772 | 140.391426179883 |
| 127 | 125.556051025776 | 108.381344503599 | 142.730757547952 |
| 128 | 115.547635064790 | 97.7064455756029 | 133.388824553977 |
| 129 | 129.786776921974 | 111.236645377715 | 148.336908466233 |
| 130 | 112.591996020442 | 93.2919447830204 | 131.892047257864 |
| 131 | 113.160010823326 | 93.0705794066338 | 133.249442240019 |
| 132 | 91.1904262367433 | 70.2736714495036 | 112.107181023983 |
