| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.357504192131878 |
| beta | 0.200940707428541 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 250.1 | 220.441693376069 | 29.6583066239315 |
| 14 | 239.1 | 224.458053833803 | 14.6419461661969 |
| 15 | 258.9 | 254.395338091194 | 4.50466190880641 |
| 16 | 276.1 | 278.565436115028 | -2.46543611502847 |
| 17 | 264.1 | 272.737418316742 | -8.63741831674241 |
| 18 | 265.5 | 278.494903533154 | -12.9949035331539 |
| 19 | 287.7 | 329.644386077925 | -41.9443860779247 |
| 20 | 285.1 | 302.44780896338 | -17.3478089633801 |
| 21 | 304.5 | 294.498394206664 | 10.0016057933361 |
| 22 | 301.5 | 302.961663352859 | -1.46166335285932 |
| 23 | 274.2 | 300.409264001131 | -26.2092640011305 |
| 24 | 258.6 | 267.805861633489 | -9.20586163348867 |
| 25 | 253.9 | 254.671095080908 | -0.771095080908253 |
| 26 | 269.6 | 231.559780009973 | 38.0402199900274 |
| 27 | 266.9 | 258.428659593779 | 8.4713404062208 |
| 28 | 269.6 | 274.903334892304 | -5.30333489230384 |
| 29 | 257.9 | 259.256148990486 | -1.35614899048585 |
| 30 | 258.2 | 260.500983430093 | -2.3009834300928 |
| 31 | 254.7 | 293.325817658484 | -38.6258176584837 |
| 32 | 237.2 | 279.809388422839 | -42.6093884228392 |
| 33 | 267.2 | 275.276565757883 | -8.07656575788258 |
| 34 | 228.8 | 263.488854501053 | -34.6888545010526 |
| 35 | 196.3 | 224.347562875663 | -28.0475628756633 |
| 36 | 194.8 | 193.069715077274 | 1.73028492272587 |
| 37 | 186.6 | 181.107729846187 | 5.49227015381257 |
| 38 | 176.7 | 177.465404544223 | -0.765404544222918 |
| 39 | 162.1 | 160.969247425387 | 1.13075257461261 |
| 40 | 154.9 | 154.948151715486 | -0.0481517154864548 |
| 41 | 150.1 | 133.071974630052 | 17.0280253699478 |
| 42 | 150.5 | 130.959051315580 | 19.5409486844196 |
| 43 | 143.6 | 140.499851186095 | 3.10014881390546 |
| 44 | 143.8 | 134.584613744054 | 9.21538625594638 |
| 45 | 141.5 | 169.732914322033 | -28.2329143220331 |
| 46 | 147.9 | 131.159320703048 | 16.7406792969519 |
| 47 | 151.4 | 115.884236631745 | 35.5157633682552 |
| 48 | 144.6 | 132.241826304560 | 12.3581736954404 |
| 49 | 140.4 | 133.039032288560 | 7.3609677114396 |
| 50 | 139.5 | 132.721103019803 | 6.7788969801968 |
| 51 | 138.1 | 127.359157990198 | 10.7408420098019 |
| 52 | 136.7 | 131.925449534373 | 4.77455046562679 |
| 53 | 130 | 131.000411103601 | -1.00041110360144 |
| 54 | 128.5 | 131.017307672957 | -2.5173076729574 |
| 55 | 130.4 | 127.484960068976 | 2.91503993102424 |
| 56 | 125.7 | 130.795178791412 | -5.09517879141232 |
| 57 | 121.7 | 141.101605045243 | -19.4016050452431 |
| 58 | 129.9 | 139.549591732372 | -9.64959173237216 |
| 59 | 129.6 | 129.975991063662 | -0.375991063661814 |
| 60 | 128.2 | 119.11831572055 | 9.08168427944997 |
| 61 | 119.7 | 115.792947402479 | 3.90705259752085 |
| 62 | 112.2 | 113.877599890108 | -1.67759989010841 |
| 63 | 105.6 | 107.441813150535 | -1.84181315053543 |
| 64 | 101.2 | 102.176391693773 | -0.976391693773166 |
| 65 | 94.9 | 93.5718037387872 | 1.32819626121280 |
| 66 | 95.1 | 91.7006930269767 | 3.3993069730233 |
| 67 | 93.1 | 92.45295874133 | 0.647041258669972 |
| 68 | 91.4 | 88.3220381479946 | 3.07796185200536 |
| 69 | 89.8 | 91.461924309446 | -1.66192430944595 |
| 70 | 85.9 | 102.895263679034 | -16.9952636790344 |
| 71 | 89.7 | 96.5038267266136 | -6.8038267266136 |
| 72 | 91.6 | 88.8129552612187 | 2.78704473878125 |
| 73 | 88.6 | 78.8486241347878 | 9.75137586521217 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 74 | 74.7904467569966 | 43.0784411307395 | 106.502452383254 |
| 75 | 68.3253325443649 | 33.8140733432684 | 102.836591745461 |
| 76 | 63.8831371318454 | 25.8880535529317 | 101.878220710759 |
| 77 | 56.7871830562333 | 14.6703352014703 | 98.9040309109964 |
| 78 | 55.3553843910084 | 8.53643543212566 | 102.174333349891 |
| 79 | 52.4633357476681 | 0.419496725554822 | 104.507174769781 |
| 80 | 48.9557412045722 | -8.7837595524323 | 106.695241961577 |
| 81 | 47.0215638417077 | -16.8396901621975 | 110.882817845613 |
| 82 | 48.3885074809065 | -21.9831494899258 | 118.760164451739 |
| 83 | 55.032860911676 | -22.2067691501459 | 132.272490973498 |
| 84 | 56.8372050763588 | -27.6021831471619 | 141.276593299880 |
| 85 | 51.0515583301586 | -40.8978792867074 | 143.000995947025 |
