Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.191978877192319 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.14 | 2.14 | 4.44089209850063e-16 |
4 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 0 |
5 | 2.15 | 2.16 | -0.00999999999999979 |
6 | 2.16 | 2.15808021122808 | 0.00191978877192334 |
7 | 2.17 | 2.16844877012096 | 0.00155122987904299 |
8 | 2.17 | 2.17874657349140 | -0.00874657349140273 |
9 | 2.18 | 2.17706741613324 | 0.0029325838667571 |
10 | 2.17 | 2.18763041029126 | -0.0176304102912557 |
11 | 2.17 | 2.1742457439191 | -0.00424574391910015 |
12 | 2.18 | 2.17343065076867 | 0.00656934923133479 |
13 | 2.17 | 2.18469182705798 | -0.0146918270579817 |
14 | 2.18 | 2.17187130659549 | 0.00812869340451394 |
15 | 2.18 | 2.18343184402833 | -0.00343184402832541 |
16 | 2.18 | 2.18277300246507 | -0.00277300246506851 |
17 | 2.17 | 2.18224064456537 | -0.0122406445653733 |
18 | 2.17 | 2.16989069936560 | 0.000109300634397513 |
19 | 2.18 | 2.16991168277867 | 0.0100883172213297 |
20 | 2.17 | 2.18184842659158 | -0.0118484265915817 |
21 | 2.18 | 2.16957377895803 | 0.0104262210419663 |
22 | 2.17 | 2.18157539316703 | -0.0115753931670297 |
23 | 2.17 | 2.16935316218376 | 0.000646837816236534 |
24 | 2.17 | 2.16947734138145 | 0.000522658618550054 |
25 | 2.17 | 2.16957768079619 | 0.000422319203805976 |
26 | 2.17 | 2.16965875716276 | 0.000341242837242461 |
27 | 2.17 | 2.1697242685795 | 0.000275731420498637 |
28 | 2.17 | 2.16977720318802 | 0.000222796811984782 |
29 | 2.17 | 2.16981997546982 | 0.000180024530177736 |
30 | 2.17 | 2.16985453637699 | 0.000145463623007380 |
31 | 2.18 | 2.16988246232001 | 0.0101175376799900 |
32 | 2.18 | 2.18182481584377 | -0.00182481584376548 |
33 | 2.18 | 2.18147448974700 | -0.00147448974699671 |
34 | 2.18 | 2.18119141886094 | -0.00119141886093654 |
35 | 2.18 | 2.18096269160575 | -0.000962691605748134 |
36 | 2.18 | 2.18077787515219 | -0.000777875152194074 |
37 | 2.18 | 2.18062853955388 | -0.000628539553880092 |
38 | 2.18 | 2.18050787323606 | -0.000507873236055278 |
39 | 2.18 | 2.18041037230244 | -0.000410372302441342 |
40 | 2.18 | 2.18033158948859 | -0.000331589488587802 |
41 | 2.18 | 2.18026793131088 | -0.000267931310879987 |
42 | 2.18 | 2.18021649415865 | -0.000216494158652658 |
43 | 2.18 | 2.18017493185316 | -0.000174931853155869 |
44 | 2.19 | 2.1801413486324 | 0.009858651367598 |
45 | 2.19 | 2.19203400145258 | -0.00203400145258392 |
46 | 2.19 | 2.19164351613751 | -0.00164351613750924 |
47 | 2.2 | 2.19132799575478 | 0.00867200424521775 |
48 | 2.2 | 2.20299283739279 | -0.00299283739278655 |
49 | 2.21 | 2.2024182758305 | 0.00758172416949954 |
50 | 2.21 | 2.21387380672374 | -0.00387380672374249 |
51 | 2.21 | 2.21313011765846 | -0.00313011765845861 |
52 | 2.2 | 2.21252920118491 | -0.0125292011849076 |
53 | 2.21 | 2.20012385920931 | 0.00987614079068733 |
54 | 2.2 | 2.21201986962930 | -0.0120198696293019 |
55 | 2.21 | 2.19971230855387 | 0.0102876914461292 |
56 | 2.21 | 2.2116873280066 | -0.00168732800659965 |
57 | 2.22 | 2.21136339667044 | 0.00863660332956284 |
58 | 2.22 | 2.22302144208040 | -0.00302144208040245 |
59 | 2.23 | 2.22244138902231 | 0.00755861097769461 |
60 | 2.24 | 2.23389248267094 | 0.00610751732906367 |
61 | 2.24 | 2.24506499699020 | -0.0050649969902028 |
62 | 2.25 | 2.24409262455504 | 0.00590737544495878 |
63 | 2.25 | 2.25522671586012 | -0.0052267158601178 |
64 | 2.32 | 2.25422329681789 | 0.0657767031821108 |
65 | 2.36 | 2.33685103444020 | 0.0231489655597970 |
66 | 2.37 | 2.38129514685654 | -0.0112951468565363 |
67 | 2.37 | 2.38912671724530 | -0.0191267172452965 |
68 | 2.37 | 2.38545479154417 | -0.0154547915441694 |
69 | 2.38 | 2.38248779801628 | -0.00248779801627874 |
70 | 2.38 | 2.39201019334643 | -0.0120101933464318 |
71 | 2.41 | 2.38970448991292 | 0.0202955100870787 |
72 | 2.42 | 2.42360079915148 | -0.00360079915148415 |
73 | 2.43 | 2.43290952177339 | -0.00290952177338699 |
74 | 2.44 | 2.44235095505017 | -0.00235095505016591 |
75 | 2.44 | 2.45189962133931 | -0.0118996213393054 |
76 | 2.44 | 2.44961514539557 | -0.00961514539557173 |
77 | 2.43 | 2.44776924057849 | -0.0177692405784886 |
78 | 2.43 | 2.43435792172367 | -0.00435792172367044 |
79 | 2.43 | 2.43352129280427 | -0.00352129280426805 |
80 | 2.42 | 2.43284527896544 | -0.0128452789654396 |
81 | 2.42 | 2.42037925673243 | -0.000379256732432331 |
82 | 2.42 | 2.42030644745077 | -0.000306447450772129 |
83 | 2.42 | 2.42024761601325 | -0.000247616013254515 |
84 | 2.42 | 2.42020007896906 | -0.000200078969055273 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 2.42016166803323 | 2.39887428024957 | 2.44144905581688 |
86 | 2.42032333606645 | 2.38720236580123 | 2.45344430633167 |
87 | 2.42048500409968 | 2.3761573594225 | 2.46481264877686 |
88 | 2.42064667213290 | 2.36505548742478 | 2.47623785684103 |
89 | 2.42080834016613 | 2.35367622728531 | 2.48794045304695 |
90 | 2.42097000819936 | 2.34192973318055 | 2.50001028321816 |
91 | 2.42113167623258 | 2.32977678579139 | 2.51248656667377 |
92 | 2.42129334426581 | 2.31720119239107 | 2.52538549614055 |
93 | 2.42145501229903 | 2.30419825128766 | 2.53871177331041 |
94 | 2.42161668033226 | 2.2907693094184 | 2.55246405124612 |
95 | 2.42177834836549 | 2.27691897447779 | 2.56663772225318 |
96 | 2.42194001639871 | 2.26265360174972 | 2.58122643104770 |