| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.615821652041268 |
| beta | 0.118765866706064 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 467037 | 472363.576121795 | -5326.57612179499 |
| 14 | 460070 | 461985.31991359 | -1915.31991359015 |
| 15 | 447988 | 447802.705336887 | 185.294663113018 |
| 16 | 442867 | 440692.538556588 | 2174.46144341241 |
| 17 | 436087 | 433501.005797972 | 2585.99420202849 |
| 18 | 431328 | 429060.914798115 | 2267.08520188474 |
| 19 | 484015 | 482872.994151096 | 1142.00584890414 |
| 20 | 509673 | 517619.499978366 | -7946.49997836648 |
| 21 | 512927 | 494236.869644173 | 18690.1303558273 |
| 22 | 502831 | 490931.706163555 | 11899.2938364450 |
| 23 | 470984 | 479617.187785356 | -8633.18778535567 |
| 24 | 471067 | 471583.195119805 | -516.195119805343 |
| 25 | 476049 | 477284.838288029 | -1235.83828802919 |
| 26 | 474605 | 472103.766461506 | 2501.23353849392 |
| 27 | 470439 | 463138.480944105 | 7300.51905589522 |
| 28 | 461251 | 463385.124885385 | -2134.12488538492 |
| 29 | 454724 | 455594.156086407 | -870.156086407427 |
| 30 | 455626 | 450546.179741995 | 5079.82025800546 |
| 31 | 516847 | 507506.895367786 | 9340.10463221383 |
| 32 | 525192 | 546258.682432269 | -21066.6824322692 |
| 33 | 522975 | 526518.306281595 | -3543.30628159537 |
| 34 | 518585 | 506775.026489137 | 11809.9735108633 |
| 35 | 509239 | 487373.442812695 | 21865.5571873054 |
| 36 | 512238 | 503326.320727631 | 8911.67927236884 |
| 37 | 519164 | 517333.633450255 | 1830.36654974462 |
| 38 | 517009 | 518477.008632763 | -1468.00863276346 |
| 39 | 509933 | 511621.364240714 | -1688.36424071412 |
| 40 | 509127 | 504760.643842347 | 4366.35615765263 |
| 41 | 500857 | 503986.608040813 | -3129.60804081318 |
| 42 | 506971 | 502196.017785733 | 4774.98221426667 |
| 43 | 569323 | 562946.374573375 | 6376.62542662525 |
| 44 | 579714 | 590315.471076116 | -10601.4710761162 |
| 45 | 577992 | 586641.224517669 | -8649.22451766883 |
| 46 | 565464 | 572167.891862108 | -6703.89186210837 |
| 47 | 547344 | 546390.01297408 | 953.987025920069 |
| 48 | 554788 | 544120.857408773 | 10667.1425912273 |
| 49 | 562325 | 556249.491165566 | 6075.50883443374 |
| 50 | 560854 | 558811.192021192 | 2042.80797880818 |
| 51 | 555332 | 554360.94431283 | 971.055687170709 |
| 52 | 543599 | 551986.566648985 | -8387.56664898456 |
| 53 | 536662 | 540068.319813972 | -3406.31981397152 |
| 54 | 542722 | 540713.576494984 | 2008.42350501625 |
| 55 | 593530 | 599742.680573712 | -6212.68057371234 |
| 56 | 610763 | 611282.766075753 | -519.766075753025 |
| 57 | 612613 | 613750.797599158 | -1137.79759915778 |
| 58 | 611324 | 604383.62914963 | 6940.37085037003 |
| 59 | 594167 | 590681.206279158 | 3485.79372084187 |
| 60 | 595454 | 594618.981284408 | 835.018715592101 |
| 61 | 590865 | 599125.871433409 | -8260.87143340858 |
| 62 | 589379 | 590458.197316543 | -1079.1973165432 |
| 63 | 584428 | 582593.822813292 | 1834.17718670797 |
| 64 | 573100 | 576138.937168938 | -3038.93716893846 |
| 65 | 567456 | 568802.713766931 | -1346.71376693109 |
| 66 | 569028 | 572321.718686744 | -3293.71868674399 |
| 67 | 620735 | 624064.658499904 | -3329.65849990386 |
| 68 | 628884 | 638915.505962765 | -10031.5059627648 |
| 69 | 628232 | 633941.132577976 | -5709.13257797586 |
| 70 | 612117 | 623180.518266678 | -11063.5182666781 |
| 71 | 595404 | 594065.181605023 | 1338.81839497702 |
| 72 | 597141 | 592506.850285533 | 4634.14971446723 |
| 73 | 593408 | 592981.164534575 | 426.83546542516 |
| 74 | 590072 | 590180.299805429 | -108.2998054286 |
| 75 | 579799 | 581861.778167286 | -2062.77816728572 |
| 76 | 574205 | 568678.597939928 | 5526.40206007194 |
| 77 | 572775 | 565437.348260051 | 7337.65173994948 |
| 78 | 572942 | 572361.675404226 | 580.324595774175 |
| 79 | 619567 | 625565.16877017 | -5998.1687701703 |
| 80 | 625809 | 635091.455175316 | -9282.45517531584 |
| 81 | 619916 | 631187.180302219 | -11271.1803022191 |
| 82 | 587625 | 613485.75173597 | -25860.7517359707 |
| 83 | 565742 | 577481.872909657 | -11739.8729096568 |
| 84 | 557274 | 565638.04356287 | -8364.04356287047 |
| 85 | 560576 | 552043.408674952 | 8532.59132504812 |
| 86 | 548854 | 550173.478856835 | -1319.47885683458 |
| 87 | 531673 | 536414.45706619 | -4741.45706618985 |
| 88 | 525919 | 520357.610692429 | 5561.38930757134 |
| 89 | 511038 | 513696.632341192 | -2658.63234119164 |
| 90 | 498662 | 507000.780898371 | -8338.78089837148 |
| 91 | 555362 | 546663.818819896 | 8698.18118010368 |
| 92 | 564591 | 559532.99190059 | 5058.00809940964 |
| 93 | 541657 | 560299.008870119 | -18642.0088701185 |
| 94 | 527070 | 528517.524193867 | -1447.52419386664 |
| 95 | 509846 | 510822.381644337 | -976.381644336914 |
| 96 | 514258 | 505540.696671402 | 8717.30332859757 |
| 97 | 516922 | 508842.584847475 | 8079.4151525253 |
| 98 | 507561 | 502761.621141279 | 4799.37885872147 |
| 99 | 492622 | 491756.59297945 | 865.407020549697 |
| 100 | 490243 | 483821.302052729 | 6421.69794727088 |
| 101 | 469357 | 475305.68445808 | -5948.6844580801 |
| 102 | 477580 | 464934.446222279 | 12645.5537777211 |
| 103 | 528379 | 526132.977059691 | 2246.02294030902 |
| 104 | 533590 | 535226.047266048 | -1636.04726604815 |
| 105 | 517945 | 523870.844402354 | -5925.84440235398 |
| 106 | 506174 | 508562.197987808 | -2388.19798780815 |
| 107 | 501866 | 492436.171492360 | 9429.82850763958 |
| 108 | 516141 | 500015.456063887 | 16125.5439361132 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 510904.760811597 | 495665.719673594 | 526143.8019496 |
| 110 | 501267.606771325 | 482761.949819087 | 519773.263723563 |
| 111 | 488124.057954161 | 466276.029809854 | 509972.086098469 |
| 112 | 484055.530228084 | 458770.280467361 | 509340.779988807 |
| 113 | 468628.277883591 | 439801.790043209 | 497454.765723973 |
| 114 | 471294.369437229 | 438818.401891705 | 503770.336982752 |
| 115 | 522015.839250204 | 485780.572549717 | 558251.105950692 |
| 116 | 529375.700995004 | 489271.223031825 | 569480.178958183 |
| 117 | 518640.970893084 | 474558.131096588 | 562723.81068958 |
| 118 | 510035.089449248 | 461865.992661955 | 558204.186236541 |
| 119 | 501789.080843939 | 449427.367617441 | 554150.794070437 |
| 120 | 507313.021319746 | 450654.018137292 | 563972.024502201 |
