Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.391420833329359 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.570171376485047 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 70249 | 70721.3266559829 | -472.326655982892 |
14 | 39253 | 39691.492306051 | -438.492306051041 |
15 | 47060 | 47477.3180922313 | -417.31809223134 |
16 | 41697 | 41877.6819068300 | -180.681906830039 |
17 | 38708 | 38567.1700543144 | 140.829945685604 |
18 | 49267 | 48956.837972369 | 310.162027630977 |
19 | 39018 | 39926.8693283814 | -908.869328381443 |
20 | 32228 | 35086.3714151689 | -2858.37141516886 |
21 | 40870 | 39921.6311039019 | 948.36889609805 |
22 | 39383 | 35647.1782575396 | 3735.82174246039 |
23 | 34571 | 31025.5841938334 | 3545.41580616663 |
24 | 12066 | 12151.3362798722 | -85.3362798721682 |
25 | 70938 | 70852.6666441898 | 85.3333558102022 |
26 | 34077 | 40052.8523714584 | -5975.85237145841 |
27 | 45409 | 45678.5874004602 | -269.58740046015 |
28 | 40809 | 40218.8875217193 | 590.112478280738 |
29 | 37013 | 37321.6434689092 | -308.643468909242 |
30 | 44953 | 47594.1354162223 | -2641.13541622234 |
31 | 37848 | 36985.9703876026 | 862.029612397411 |
32 | 32745 | 32162.1728653753 | 582.82713462468 |
33 | 43412 | 39665.3070089376 | 3746.69299106237 |
34 | 34931 | 37453.4070986882 | -2522.40709868816 |
35 | 33008 | 30316.1420891639 | 2691.85791083609 |
36 | 8620 | 9847.94311404445 | -1227.94311404445 |
37 | 68906 | 68161.2547706059 | 744.745229394146 |
38 | 39556 | 35516.3504099588 | 4039.64959004124 |
39 | 50669 | 47042.4036735438 | 3626.59632645623 |
40 | 36432 | 43406.0623377924 | -6974.06233779241 |
41 | 40891 | 37236.1793753662 | 3654.82062463385 |
42 | 48428 | 48250.6920479249 | 177.307952075083 |
43 | 36222 | 39961.3031925521 | -3739.30319255215 |
44 | 33425 | 33239.5664472244 | 185.433552775576 |
45 | 39401 | 41684.9962653044 | -2283.99626530438 |
46 | 37967 | 34937.2161839358 | 3029.78381606419 |
47 | 34801 | 31782.5152378261 | 3018.4847621739 |
48 | 12657 | 10082.0157293514 | 2574.98427064861 |
49 | 69116 | 70568.3842417824 | -1452.38424178238 |
50 | 41519 | 38206.7910639976 | 3312.20893600245 |
51 | 51321 | 49304.7817224748 | 2016.21827752518 |
52 | 38529 | 41359.7354517122 | -2830.73545171221 |
53 | 41547 | 40499.8000429236 | 1047.19995707643 |
54 | 52073 | 49286.9581638865 | 2786.04183611346 |
55 | 38401 | 40659.6398822971 | -2258.63988229705 |
56 | 40898 | 35879.3273589028 | 5018.6726410972 |
57 | 40439 | 45359.7092782919 | -4920.70927829195 |
58 | 41888 | 39423.7168356393 | 2464.28316436071 |
59 | 37898 | 36043.7464445272 | 1854.25355547282 |
60 | 8771 | 13733.6503905962 | -4962.65039059618 |
61 | 68184 | 69872.1572568186 | -1688.15725681855 |
62 | 50530 | 39071.5648608035 | 11458.4351391965 |
63 | 47221 | 52908.4566398564 | -5687.45663985639 |
64 | 41756 | 40266.1656095643 | 1489.83439043573 |
65 | 45633 | 42443.0132013182 | 3189.98679868184 |
66 | 48138 | 52672.271164776 | -4534.27116477599 |
67 | 39486 | 39429.1534553267 | 56.8465446733244 |
68 | 39341 | 38080.3574054008 | 1260.64259459915 |
69 | 41117 | 42640.8579964992 | -1523.85799649917 |
70 | 41629 | 40597.0150911763 | 1031.98490882370 |
71 | 29722 | 36444.7364522787 | -6722.73645227875 |
72 | 7054 | 8412.0001831816 | -1358.00018318159 |
73 | 56231 | 67097.673087001 | -10866.6730870010 |
74 | 34418 | 37266.2125947004 | -2848.21259470037 |
75 | 34568 | 39553.6556024449 | -4985.65560244493 |
76 | 29789 | 29676.5440656061 | 112.455934393929 |
77 | 30630 | 31904.2004350705 | -1274.20043507054 |
78 | 35502 | 37705.8080904286 | -2203.80809042857 |
79 | 33091 | 26967.9744116547 | 6123.02558834527 |
80 | 27630 | 28411.3177316676 | -781.317731667645 |
81 | 33520 | 31206.3463394033 | 2313.65366059672 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
82 | 31551.4486743223 | 24741.4518575181 | 38361.4454911265 |
83 | 24304.3845924712 | 16991.2905312908 | 31617.4786536516 |
84 | 764.600984153938 | -7019.14058725379 | 8548.34255556167 |
85 | 56682.3670010682 | 48454.856991761 | 64909.8770103754 |
86 | 33886.7098011252 | 25238.1718289569 | 42535.2477732936 |
87 | 36547.3217569502 | 27497.3219139211 | 45597.3215999793 |
88 | 30390.7159524518 | 20956.3222113778 | 39825.1096935257 |
89 | 32093.1927020918 | 22289.4651781137 | 41896.9202260698 |
90 | 38070.9802832962 | 27911.3365165496 | 48230.6240500428 |
91 | 31085.1278362436 | 20581.6212993779 | 41588.6343731094 |
92 | 27736.0227641467 | 16899.5594262873 | 38572.4861020060 |
93 | 31910.8132162744 | 20751.3228257790 | 43070.3036067698 |