| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.227226293087861 |
| beta | 0.00400719516398090 |
| gamma | 0.468268628242811 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5463 | 5564.62030934466 | -101.620309344661 |
| 14 | 5546 | 5645.370230533 | -99.3702305330025 |
| 15 | 6810 | 6947.82867380658 | -137.828673806577 |
| 16 | 6407 | 6473.49533036791 | -66.4953303679094 |
| 17 | 5985 | 6018.63991562603 | -33.6399156260304 |
| 18 | 5119 | 5155.82803312001 | -36.8280331200131 |
| 19 | 5904 | 5607.62182296341 | 296.378177036587 |
| 20 | 5034 | 5908.09839262955 | -874.098392629551 |
| 21 | 4922 | 4944.12993792744 | -22.1299379274387 |
| 22 | 6083 | 5218.77152118562 | 864.228478814378 |
| 23 | 4365 | 4889.35761956567 | -524.357619565667 |
| 24 | 4464 | 4405.36579053152 | 58.6342094684833 |
| 25 | 4557 | 5120.96749380307 | -563.967493803075 |
| 26 | 5885 | 5084.51720181596 | 800.48279818404 |
| 27 | 5286 | 6500.28623857647 | -1214.28623857647 |
| 28 | 6017 | 5842.51903868147 | 174.480961318528 |
| 29 | 5376 | 5488.01101343521 | -112.011013435206 |
| 30 | 5935 | 4680.0453282685 | 1254.9546717315 |
| 31 | 6276 | 5525.22771223572 | 750.772287764278 |
| 32 | 5510 | 5497.85968270902 | 12.1403172909777 |
| 33 | 5998 | 5036.32253345798 | 961.677466542022 |
| 34 | 5193 | 5886.82285300407 | -693.82285300407 |
| 35 | 4602 | 4696.88212709086 | -94.8821270908611 |
| 36 | 5326 | 4519.87855823765 | 806.121441762346 |
| 37 | 5307 | 5206.21138924348 | 100.78861075652 |
| 38 | 5014 | 5862.86548180036 | -848.86548180036 |
| 39 | 6153 | 6167.51037641228 | -14.5103764122814 |
| 40 | 6441 | 6297.004497691 | 143.995502309000 |
| 41 | 5584 | 5803.71369864202 | -219.71369864202 |
| 42 | 6427 | 5424.4526546247 | 1002.54734537530 |
| 43 | 6062 | 6040.77316263407 | 21.2268373659344 |
| 44 | 5589 | 5575.87746116157 | 13.1225388384264 |
| 45 | 6216 | 5443.4791066912 | 772.520893308798 |
| 46 | 5809 | 5646.23803220823 | 162.761967791771 |
| 47 | 4989 | 4839.22847908395 | 149.771520916050 |
| 48 | 6706 | 5043.28937991882 | 1662.71062008118 |
| 49 | 7174 | 5694.40843060607 | 1479.59156939393 |
| 50 | 6122 | 6358.08576395324 | -236.085763953241 |
| 51 | 8075 | 7254.01794292782 | 820.98205707218 |
| 52 | 6292 | 7681.66551547145 | -1389.66551547145 |
| 53 | 6337 | 6614.10719025756 | -277.107190257564 |
| 54 | 8576 | 6672.8638747727 | 1903.1361252273 |
| 55 | 6077 | 7154.25202246334 | -1077.25202246334 |
| 56 | 5931 | 6376.98248550287 | -445.982485502868 |
| 57 | 6288 | 6428.93049316508 | -140.930493165078 |
| 58 | 7167 | 6191.21066920885 | 975.789330791152 |
| 59 | 6054 | 5469.68382585193 | 584.316174148069 |
| 60 | 6468 | 6377.11893836784 | 90.8810616321607 |
| 61 | 6403 | 6589.49810437552 | -186.498104375516 |
| 62 | 6927 | 6254.52454015845 | 672.475459841549 |
| 63 | 7914 | 7774.53806132073 | 139.461938679266 |
| 64 | 7728 | 7221.93899691618 | 506.061003083815 |
| 65 | 8701 | 6966.45053014664 | 1734.54946985336 |
| 66 | 8522 | 8359.83831051347 | 162.161689486527 |
| 67 | 6481 | 7276.77058106426 | -795.770581064257 |
| 68 | 7502 | 6766.5726491668 | 735.427350833205 |
| 69 | 7778 | 7238.94888090384 | 539.051119096164 |
| 70 | 7424 | 7585.31733620368 | -161.317336203680 |
| 71 | 6941 | 6337.61620357216 | 603.383796427842 |
| 72 | 8574 | 7143.82737920431 | 1430.17262079569 |
| 73 | 9171 | 7581.82794222258 | 1589.17205777742 |
| 74 | 7718 | 7968.311187041 | -250.311187041008 |
| 75 | 9083 | 9318.25292636613 | -235.252926366129 |
| 76 | 7164 | 8737.87363004178 | -1573.87363004178 |
| 77 | 8213 | 8431.35671139932 | -218.356711399318 |
| 78 | 8124 | 8836.0324898033 | -712.032489803305 |
| 79 | 7075 | 7163.79785863682 | -88.7978586368235 |
| 80 | 7026 | 7375.32200042453 | -349.322000424528 |
| 81 | 7390 | 7531.14629362274 | -141.146293622739 |
| 82 | 7778 | 7469.69768740157 | 308.302312598425 |
| 83 | 6203 | 6595.34870468105 | -392.348704681050 |
| 84 | 6905 | 7424.91832742048 | -519.918327420483 |
| 85 | 7087 | 7435.72618656723 | -348.726186567232 |
| 86 | 6495 | 6797.93282439275 | -302.932824392748 |
| 87 | 7664 | 7937.71647368105 | -273.716473681052 |
| 88 | 6516 | 6981.53634082563 | -465.536340825629 |
| 89 | 6322 | 7347.30617119082 | -1025.30617119082 |
| 90 | 7828 | 7340.32445446061 | 487.675545539393 |
| 91 | 6708 | 6309.53217276756 | 398.467827232438 |
| 92 | 6717 | 6519.05061806593 | 197.949381934065 |
| 93 | 5707 | 6845.19391198431 | -1138.19391198431 |
| 94 | 8063 | 6699.15604276166 | 1363.84395723834 |
| 95 | 6315 | 5907.39682102024 | 407.60317897976 |
| 96 | 5893 | 6818.06315412562 | -925.063154125619 |
| 97 | 6914 | 6781.4279857217 | 132.572014278303 |
| 98 | 7319 | 6298.26054744564 | 1020.73945255436 |
| 99 | 6615 | 7732.32433212231 | -1117.32433212231 |
| 100 | 7341 | 6548.57837227765 | 792.421627722353 |
| 101 | 6210 | 6987.14737327979 | -777.147373279788 |
| 102 | 7408 | 7590.3860097346 | -182.386009734596 |
| 103 | 6168 | 6385.39907855026 | -217.399078550256 |
| 104 | 5878 | 6379.84234581784 | -501.842345817840 |
| 105 | 6834 | 6057.93455901892 | 776.065440981076 |
| 106 | 6211 | 7241.26909505805 | -1030.26909505805 |
| 107 | 5982 | 5651.11627772225 | 330.883722277754 |
| 108 | 6973 | 6027.16018506365 | 945.839814936346 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 6795.91081526721 | 5948.80138045065 | 7643.02025008377 |
| 110 | 6593.11322302713 | 5687.94898724789 | 7498.27745880638 |
| 111 | 6988.19548846407 | 6011.10222787822 | 7965.28874904992 |
| 112 | 6744.92964029036 | 5724.19533930152 | 7765.6639412792 |
| 113 | 6439.51385370796 | 5383.41362636948 | 7495.61408104644 |
| 114 | 7420.66942208264 | 6239.22384896921 | 8602.11499519606 |
| 115 | 6253.9760871294 | 5121.71885400941 | 7386.23332024938 |
| 116 | 6192.25563919212 | 5015.95653394146 | 7368.55474444279 |
| 117 | 6444.65176732062 | 5193.64392100921 | 7695.65961363203 |
| 118 | 6782.10826614538 | 5445.2047534634 | 8119.01177882736 |
| 119 | 5899.22713435604 | 4626.97034888777 | 7171.4839198243 |
| 120 | 6416.53131944743 | 5316.10183786378 | 7516.96080103108 |
