| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.236026842400955 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 0.01 |
| 4 | 1.03 | 1.09236026842401 | -0.0623602684240097 |
| 5 | 1.07 | 1.05764157117661 | 0.0123584288233853 |
| 6 | 1.12 | 1.10055849210884 | 0.0194415078911647 |
| 7 | 1.1 | 1.1551472098279 | -0.0551472098279002 |
| 8 | 1.06 | 1.12213098802500 | -0.0621309880249981 |
| 9 | 1.11 | 1.06746640710621 | 0.042533592893794 |
| 10 | 1.08 | 1.12750547673290 | -0.047505476732896 |
| 11 | 1.07 | 1.08629290906288 | -0.0162929090628785 |
| 12 | 1.02 | 1.07244734518324 | -0.0524473451832415 |
| 13 | 1 | 1.01006836390733 | -0.0100683639073280 |
| 14 | 1.04 | 0.987691959766138 | 0.0523080402338625 |
| 15 | 1.02 | 1.04003806133472 | -0.0200380613347182 |
| 16 | 1.07 | 1.01530854099005 | 0.0546914590099521 |
| 17 | 1.12 | 1.07821719336647 | 0.0417828066335317 |
| 18 | 1.08 | 1.13807905728283 | -0.0580790572828305 |
| 19 | 1.02 | 1.08437084078274 | -0.0643708407827399 |
| 20 | 1.01 | 1.00917759449010 | 0.000822405509904867 |
| 21 | 1.04 | 0.999371704265771 | 0.040628295734229 |
| 22 | 0.98 | 1.03896107262005 | -0.0589610726200533 |
| 23 | 0.95 | 0.965044676824969 | -0.0150446768249687 |
| 24 | 0.94 | 0.931493729259029 | 0.00850627074097143 |
| 25 | 0.94 | 0.923501437482628 | 0.0164985625173724 |
| 26 | 0.96 | 0.927395541097758 | 0.0326044589022422 |
| 27 | 0.97 | 0.955091068580646 | 0.0149089314193542 |
| 28 | 1.03 | 0.968609976587128 | 0.0613900234128717 |
| 29 | 1.01 | 1.04309966996819 | -0.0330996699681891 |
| 30 | 0.99 | 1.01528725938108 | -0.0252872593810838 |
| 31 | 1 | 0.989318787396393 | 0.0106812126036074 |
| 32 | 1 | 1.00183984028024 | -0.00183984028023532 |
| 33 | 1.02 | 1.00140558858837 | 0.0185944114116308 |
| 34 | 1.01 | 1.02579436880016 | -0.0157943688001607 |
| 35 | 0.99 | 1.01206647380454 | -0.0220664738045426 |
| 36 | 0.98 | 0.986858193669533 | -0.00685819366953311 |
| 37 | 1.01 | 0.975239475873139 | 0.0347605241268610 |
| 38 | 1.03 | 1.01344389262300 | 0.0165561073769958 |
| 39 | 1.03 | 1.03735157836965 | -0.00735157836964762 |
| 40 | 1 | 1.03561640854040 | -0.0356164085403967 |
| 41 | 0.96 | 0.997209980094944 | -0.0372099800949444 |
| 42 | 0.97 | 0.948427425987332 | 0.0215725740126678 |
| 43 | 0.98 | 0.963519132514003 | 0.0164808674859969 |
| 44 | 1.02 | 0.977409059626752 | 0.0425909403732485 |
| 45 | 1.04 | 1.02746166479794 | 0.0125383352020634 |
| 46 | 1.01 | 1.05042104846464 | -0.0404210484646446 |
| 47 | 1.01 | 1.01088059602900 | -0.00088059602899837 |
| 48 | 1 | 1.01067275172884 | -0.0106727517288432 |
| 49 | 1.01 | 0.998153695838555 | 0.0118463041614451 |
| 50 | 1.02 | 1.01094974160390 | 0.00905025839609785 |
| 51 | 1.03 | 1.02308584551605 | 0.00691415448395416 |
| 52 | 1.06 | 1.03471777156677 | 0.0252822284332341 |
| 53 | 1.12 | 1.07068505611272 | 0.0493149438872782 |
| 54 | 1.12 | 1.14232470660162 | -0.0223247066016163 |
| 55 | 1.13 | 1.13705547659491 | -0.00705547659490935 |
| 56 | 1.13 | 1.14539019473258 | -0.0153901947325787 |
| 57 | 1.13 | 1.14175769566591 | -0.0117576956659124 |
| 58 | 1.17 | 1.13898256388398 | 0.0310174361160243 |
| 59 | 1.14 | 1.18630351138981 | -0.0463035113898143 |
| 60 | 1.08 | 1.1453746398044 | -0.0653746398043995 |
| 61 | 1.07 | 1.06994446999827 | 5.55300017324178e-05 |
| 62 | 1.12 | 1.05995757656924 | 0.060042423430765 |
| 63 | 1.14 | 1.1241292001817 | 0.0158707998183003 |
| 64 | 1.21 | 1.14787513494919 | 0.0621248650508095 |
| 65 | 1.2 | 1.23253827068172 | -0.0325382706817186 |
| 66 | 1.23 | 1.21485836539552 | 0.0151416346044750 |
| 67 | 1.29 | 1.24843219760001 | 0.0415678023999917 |
| 68 | 1.31 | 1.31824331474603 | -0.00824331474602524 |
| 69 | 1.37 | 1.33629767119560 | 0.0337023288043965 |
| 70 | 1.35 | 1.40425232544486 | -0.0542523254448641 |
| 71 | 1.26 | 1.37144732037720 | -0.111447320377204 |
| 72 | 1.26 | 1.25514276125452 | 0.00485723874547528 |
| 73 | 1.28 | 1.25628919997841 | 0.0237108000215931 |
| 74 | 1.28 | 1.28188558523830 | -0.00188558523830396 |
| 75 | 1.27 | 1.28144053650843 | -0.0114405365084294 |
| 76 | 1.35 | 1.26874026280097 | 0.0812597371990282 |
| 77 | 1.37 | 1.36791974198639 | 0.00208025801361011 |
| 78 | 1.37 | 1.38841073871672 | -0.0184107387167216 |
| 79 | 1.4 | 1.38406531019114 | 0.0159346898088550 |
| 80 | 1.4 | 1.41782632471137 | -0.0178263247113675 |
| 81 | 1.28 | 1.41361883357813 | -0.133618833578129 |
| 82 | 1.23 | 1.26208120220338 | -0.0320812022033847 |
| 83 | 1.23 | 1.20450917734689 | 0.0254908226531068 |
| 84 | 1.25 | 1.21052569572791 | 0.0394743042720913 |
| 85 | 1.21 | 1.23984269112123 | -0.0298426911212251 |
| 86 | 1.22 | 1.19279901496714 | 0.0272009850328647 |
| 87 | 1.29 | 1.20921917757464 | 0.0807808224253621 |
| 88 | 1.32 | 1.29828562001825 | 0.0217143799817516 |
| 89 | 1.36 | 1.33341079656004 | 0.0265892034399642 |
| 90 | 1.36 | 1.37968656228993 | -0.0196865622899272 |
| 91 | 1.37 | 1.37504000515491 | -0.00504000515490599 |
| 92 | 1.32 | 1.38385042865251 | -0.063850428652509 |
| 93 | 1.33 | 1.31878001359171 | 0.0112199864082903 |
| 94 | 1.36 | 1.33142823155544 | 0.0285717684445599 |
| 95 | 1.42 | 1.36817193584322 | 0.051828064156779 |
| 96 | 1.39 | 1.4404047501739 | -0.0504047501738996 |
| 97 | 1.42 | 1.39850787614834 | 0.021492123851655 |
| 98 | 1.4 | 1.43358059427754 | -0.0335805942775413 |
| 99 | 1.42 | 1.40565467264427 | 0.0143453273557343 |
| 100 | 1.44 | 1.42904055496325 | 0.0109594450367523 |
| 101 | 1.49 | 1.45162727816974 | 0.0383727218302607 |
| 102 | 1.54 | 1.51068427053767 | 0.0293157294623341 |
| 103 | 1.55 | 1.56760356959534 | -0.0176035695953412 |
| 104 | 1.47 | 1.57344865464877 | -0.103448654648767 |
| 105 | 1.47 | 1.46903199534139 | 0.000968004658608024 |
| 106 | 1.35 | 1.46926047042439 | -0.119260470424392 |
| 107 | 1.2 | 1.32111179816687 | -0.121111798166871 |
| 108 | 1.12 | 1.14252616286804 | -0.0225261628680422 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1.05720938377489 | 0.974382940229404 | 1.14003582732037 |
| 110 | 0.994418767549778 | 0.862733516921612 | 1.12610401817794 |
| 111 | 0.931628151324666 | 0.752165888191685 | 1.11109041445765 |
| 112 | 0.868837535099555 | 0.640316938306172 | 1.09735813189294 |
| 113 | 0.806046918874444 | 0.526493291668566 | 1.08560054608032 |
| 114 | 0.743256302649333 | 0.410454930498806 | 1.07605767479986 |
| 115 | 0.680465686424221 | 0.292128746301707 | 1.06880262654674 |
| 116 | 0.61767507019911 | 0.171512481897177 | 1.06383765850104 |
| 117 | 0.554884453973999 | 0.0486359683901463 | 1.06113293955785 |
| 118 | 0.492093837748887 | -0.076456378478047 | 1.06064405397582 |
| 119 | 0.429303221523776 | -0.203714045451235 | 1.06232048849879 |
| 120 | 0.366512605298665 | -0.333084716270954 | 1.06610992686828 |
