Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation
Y[t] = -2.95769873410341 + 0.703580397848187X[t] + 0.082777822372465M1[t] + 0.198701599531784M2[t] + 0.249104963304368M3[t] + 0.319329307184542M4[t] + 0.364162318698908M5[t] + 0.400460781933539M6[t] + 0.437312951135892M7[t] + 0.400468198456596M8[t] + 0.236425268196903M9[t] + 0.0411791375618283M10[t] -0.0655823836649945M11[t] + 0.0195966362274159t + e[t]


Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares
VariableParameterS.D.T-STAT
H0: parameter = 0
2-tail p-value1-tail p-value
(Intercept)-2.957698734103410.371037-7.971400
X0.7035803978481870.02768125.417700
M10.0827778223724650.1733190.47760.6333950.316697
M20.1987015995317840.1737391.14370.2539660.126983
M30.2491049633043680.1736911.43420.1529010.076451
M40.3193293071845420.1735471.840.0670780.033539
M50.3641623186989080.1737532.09590.0372080.018604
M60.4004607819335390.1744052.29620.0225830.011292
M70.4373129511358920.1753622.49380.0133560.006678
M80.4004681984565960.1762922.27160.024050.012025
M90.2364252681969030.1762841.34120.1812130.090607
M100.04117913756182830.1735530.23730.8126620.406331
M11-0.06558238366499450.173114-0.37880.7051620.352581
t0.01959663622741590.00066829.347600


Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.899679101225787
R-squared0.80942248518244
Adjusted R-squared0.79846006176373
F-TEST (value)73.836090275534
F-TEST (DF numerator)13
F-TEST (DF denominator)226
p-value0
Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics
Residual Standard Deviation0.547423089651235
Sum Squared Residuals67.7258808328268


Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals
Time or IndexActualsInterpolation
Forecast
Residuals
Prediction Error
14.65.37656637932031-0.776566379320307
24.55.30101267335254-0.801012673352539
34.45.23029659378291-0.830296593782907
44.45.24975953410568-0.849759534105683
54.35.103115062493-0.803115062493005
64.14.87757800281578-0.77757800281578
73.94.72295268889109-0.82295268889109
83.74.49463045308475-0.794630453084749
93.64.27982611926766-0.679826119267655
103.94.52632486356891-0.626324863568911
114.24.86130821727842-0.661308217278416
124.24.8761291973860-0.676129197386005
134.14.83778757641625-0.737787576416251
144.14.83259191023336-0.732591910233366
154.14.83223387044853-0.732233870448529
164.14.8516968107713-0.751696810771299
174.14.77541037894344-0.675410378943445
1844.62023135905103-0.620231359051035
193.94.46560604512635-0.56560604512635
203.84.30764184910483-0.507641849104831
213.84.09283751528774-0.292837515287736
2244.26897821980417-0.268978219804169
234.44.60396157351367-0.203961573513675
244.64.68914059340608-0.0891405934060844
254.64.65079897243633-0.0507989724363276
264.64.71596134603824-0.115961346038244
274.74.78596134603824-0.085961346038244
284.84.87578232614583-0.0757823261458346
294.84.799495894317980.000504105682020389
304.74.71467491421039-0.0146749142103887
314.74.70076567985534-0.000765679855340498
324.74.613159523618640.0868404763813602
334.64.468713229586360.131286770413637
3454.715211973887620.284788026112382
355.45.050195327597120.349804672402879
365.55.205732387274350.29426761272565
375.65.308106845874230.29189315412577
385.65.373269219476150.226730780523854
395.85.513627259260960.286372740739036
4065.74416431893820.255835681061807
416.15.808593966679970.291406033320025
426.15.79413102635720.305868973642797
4365.780221792002150.219778207997847
4465.762973675550270.237026324449728
456.15.759243461087630.340756538912367
466.56.005742205388890.494257794611113
477.16.481441638668030.618558361331971
487.46.707336738130080.692663261869925
497.46.809711196729960.590288803270045
507.56.874873570331870.625126429668129
517.67.015231610116690.58476838988331
527.87.17541063000910.624589369990901
537.87.239840277750880.560159722249119
547.77.225377337428110.47462266257189
557.67.211468103073060.388531896926939
567.57.123861946836360.376138053163639
577.36.909057613019260.390942386980735
587.67.08519831753570.514801682464299
5987.42018167124520.579818328754795
6087.646076770707250.353923229292748
617.97.60773514973750.292264850262506
627.87.532181443769770.267818556230226
637.77.531823403984960.168176596015044
647.87.551286344307730.248713655692273
657.77.545357952264690.154642047735310
667.57.46053697215710.0394630278428989
677.37.30591165823241-0.00591165823241391
687.17.21830550199571-0.118305501995715
6977.00350116817862-0.00350116817861892
707.37.249999912479870.0500000875201269
717.87.65534130597420.144658694025804
727.97.881236405436240.0187635945637573
737.97.9132528242513-0.0132528242513042
747.87.83769911828358-0.0376991182835833
757.87.83734107849877-0.0373410784987652
767.97.99752009839117-0.0975200983911736
777.87.99159170634814-0.191591706348138
787.67.83641268645573-0.236412686455729
797.47.75214541231586-0.352145412315861
807.27.52382317650952-0.323823176509524
816.97.23866080290761-0.338660802907610
827.17.34444346763923-0.244443467639227
837.57.74978486113355-0.249784861133551
847.67.83496388102596-0.234963881025961
857.47.65590618048656-0.255906180486564
867.37.50999443473402-0.209994434734025
877.27.5096363949492-0.309636394949207
887.37.52909933527198-0.229099335271979
897.27.45281290344412-0.252812903444124
907.17.36799192333653-0.267991923336534
9177.28372464919667-0.283724649196666
926.97.12576045317515-0.225760453175147
936.86.98131415914287-0.181314159142870
947.27.22781290344412-0.0278129034441247
957.67.63315429693845-0.0331542969384493
967.77.78869135661568-0.0886913566156759
977.67.75034973564592-0.150349735645919
987.57.6747960296782-0.174796029678197
997.57.67443798989338-0.174437989893380
1007.67.76425897000097-0.16425897000097
1017.67.75833057795793-0.158330577957934
1027.67.74386763763516-0.143867637635163
1037.57.58924232371048-0.0892423237104756
1047.37.43127812768896-0.131278127688958
1057.27.21647379387186-0.016473793871861
1067.47.322256458603480.0777435413965224
10787.657239812312980.342760187687017
1088.27.742418832205390.457581167794606
10987.493003091881180.50699690811882
1107.77.276733306343820.42326669365618
1117.77.206017226774180.493982773225815
1127.87.225480167096960.574519832903043
1137.87.219551775053920.580448224946079
1147.77.064372755161510.635627244838488
1157.56.909747441236820.590252558763176
1167.36.751783245215310.548216754784693
1177.16.536978911398210.563021088601788
1187.16.642761576129830.457238423870171
1197.26.83702885026970.362971149730305
1206.86.711133750807650.08886624919235
1216.66.60243409005307-0.00243409005307348
1226.46.45652234430053-0.0565223443005328
1236.46.315448224946080.0845517750539211
1246.56.053479006129580.446520993870424
1256.35.766118454947270.533881545052734
1265.95.610939435054860.289060564945143
1275.55.80810432005426-0.308104320054263
1285.25.65014012403275-0.450140124032745
1294.95.43533579021565-0.535335790215649
1305.45.75219257430172-0.352192574301721
1315.86.01681788822641-0.216817888226408
1325.75.96128082854918-0.261280828549180
1335.65.99329724736424-0.393297247364242
1345.55.8473855016117-0.347385501611702
1355.45.63595334247243-0.235953342472428
1365.45.303626083871110.0963739161288935
1375.45.086623572473610.313376427526386
1385.55.001802592366030.498197407633974
1395.85.198967477365430.601032522634569
1405.75.111361321128730.588638678871268
1415.44.7558409077420.644159092258001
1425.64.79126553268880.808734467311203
1435.84.915174767043850.884825232956153
1446.25.281785946075530.91821405392447
1456.85.876666683169140.92333331683086
1466.76.012187096555880.687812903444125
1476.76.363619255695150.33638074430485
1486.46.6645143551572-0.264514355157194
1496.36.65858596311416-0.358585963114159
1506.36.43304890343693-0.133048903436932
1516.45.996991430372970.403008569627029
1526.35.839027234351450.460972765648547
15365.764938980103990.235061019896006
1546.36.5743020426838-0.274302042683796
1556.36.62785323725403-0.327853237254028
1566.66.57231617757680.0276838224232006
1577.56.322900437252581.17709956274741
1587.86.247346731284871.55265326871513
1597.96.45806281085451.44193718914550
1607.86.829315950101370.970684049898633
1617.66.964103637627970.635896362372031
1627.56.738566577950740.761433422049259
1637.66.443225184456421.15677481554358
1647.56.214902948650081.28509705134992
1657.36.07045665461781.22954334538220
1667.66.739103637627970.86089636237203
1677.56.863012871983020.636987128016981
1687.66.948191891875430.651808108124571
1697.96.839492231120851.06050776887915
1707.96.904654604722770.995345395277233
1718.17.185728724077220.914271275922775
1728.27.697697942893730.502302057106273
17387.691769550850690.308230449149311
1747.57.395874451388640.104125548611356
1756.86.748742858970230.0512571410297723
1766.56.52042062316389-0.0204206231638906
1776.66.7277645280557-0.127764528055706
1787.67.8889177895596-0.288917789559602
17988.29425918305392-0.294259183053924
1808.18.2387221233767-0.138722123376698
1817.77.70787422391321-0.0078742239132098
1827.57.28053031902140.219469680978605
1837.67.35053031902140.249469680978604
1847.87.651425418483440.148574581516558
1857.87.786213106010040.0137868939899565
1867.87.771750165687270.028249834312728
1877.57.54676681197777-0.0467668119777664
1887.57.388802615956250.111197384043751
1897.17.31471436170879-0.214714361708790
1907.57.91300330493414-0.413003304934137
1917.57.96655449950437-0.466554499504368
1927.67.98137547961196-0.381375479611958
1937.77.661601699502930.0383983004970735
1947.77.515689953750390.184310046249614
1957.97.65604799353520.243952006464794
1968.17.816227013427620.283772986572385
1978.27.88065666116940.319343338830602
1988.27.79583568106180.404164318938192
1998.27.711568406921940.48843159307806
2007.97.694320290470060.205679709529942
2017.37.54987399643778-0.249873996437781
2026.97.93708882030867-1.03708882030867
2036.67.9906400148789-1.39064001487890
2046.77.93510295520168-1.23510295520168
2056.97.68568721487746-0.785687214877462
20677.61013350890974-0.61013350890974
2077.17.68013350890974-0.580133508909742
2087.27.84031252880215-0.64031252880215
2097.17.90474217654393-0.804742176543933
2106.97.96063727600598-1.06063727600598
21178.08744412122057-1.08744412122057
2126.87.78876384562941-0.988763845629413
2136.47.29252735267304-0.892527352673042
2146.77.1872358980502-0.487235898050203
2156.66.88899689369634-0.288996893696341
2166.46.69274375444948-0.292743754449476
2176.36.93583429261899-0.635834292618993
2186.27.07135470600573-0.871354706005728
2196.57.21171274579055-0.711712745790547
2206.87.23117568611332-0.431175686113319
2216.87.08453121450064-0.284531214500645
2226.46.7886361150386-0.388636115038598
2236.16.63401080111391-0.534010801113913
2245.86.40568856530758-0.605688565307576
2256.16.54267443041457-0.442674430414573
2267.27.28167945320956-0.0816794532095561
2277.37.54630476713424-0.246304767134243
2286.97.35005162788738-0.450051627887379
2296.17.17099392734798-1.07099392734798
2305.87.02508218159544-1.22508218159544
2316.27.3061563009499-1.1061563009499
2327.17.74776747998158-0.647767479981584
2337.77.88255516750819-0.182555167508185
2347.97.79773418740060.102265812599407
2357.77.502392793906270.197607206093730
2367.47.13335447853030.266645521469703
2377.57.059266224282840.440733775717161
23887.446481048153730.553518951846271
2398.17.64074832229360.459251677706402
24087.655569302401190.344430697598811


Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
p-valuesAlternative Hypothesis
breakpoint indexgreater2-sidedless
171.03773260635829e-432.07546521271659e-431
181.06608087572513e-572.13216175145026e-571
199.98245869118303e-071.99649173823661e-060.999999001754131
208.86333261737106e-081.77266652347421e-070.999999911366674
211.06432175752291e-072.12864351504583e-070.999999893567824
225.5723934259994e-081.11447868519988e-070.999999944276066
231.41579556121894e-072.83159112243788e-070.999999858420444
242.10602055181004e-074.21204110362008e-070.999999789397945
251.28863287534074e-062.57726575068149e-060.999998711367125
263.11367967914013e-076.22735935828027e-070.999999688632032
276.47412658490772e-081.29482531698154e-070.999999935258734
281.50521155643172e-083.01042311286345e-080.999999984947884
293.47434445750246e-096.94868891500491e-090.999999996525656
302.45345406218902e-094.90690812437804e-090.999999997546546
312.27423290529954e-094.54846581059907e-090.999999997725767
321.06188348417658e-092.12376696835316e-090.999999998938117
331.17632157595591e-092.35264315191182e-090.999999998823678
343.28930749294265e-106.5786149858853e-100.99999999967107
357.44037609469128e-111.48807521893826e-100.999999999925596
363.07537943369577e-116.15075886739153e-110.999999999969246
371.62092592233547e-113.24185184467094e-110.99999999998379
381.02702866545794e-112.05405733091588e-110.99999999998973
393.82703170707332e-127.65406341414664e-120.999999999996173
401.79358433337015e-123.58716866674031e-120.999999999998206
419.61055808307454e-131.92211161661491e-120.99999999999904
424.37873480695382e-138.75746961390764e-130.999999999999562
433.45820988426545e-136.9164197685309e-130.999999999999654
442.59175532107848e-135.18351064215696e-130.99999999999974
451.51005505963372e-133.02011011926745e-130.999999999999849
464.34888566376806e-148.69777132753612e-140.999999999999956
471.06480677866951e-142.12961355733901e-140.99999999999999
482.92738591166311e-155.85477182332622e-150.999999999999997
497.94622224392409e-161.58924444878482e-151
501.90055839238936e-163.80111678477871e-161
514.71528570240678e-179.43057140481357e-171
521.11048391816970e-172.22096783633941e-171
533.51833904505932e-187.03667809011865e-181
542.27763613184822e-184.55527226369643e-181
552.32041466315023e-184.64082932630046e-181
563.25742713804803e-186.51485427609607e-181
571.23024732019308e-172.46049464038617e-171
581.93243968459358e-173.86487936918716e-171
592.15918902566843e-174.31837805133685e-171
603.66670899501483e-167.33341799002965e-161
617.0455333048741e-151.40910666097482e-140.999999999999993
625.70125872923076e-141.14025174584615e-130.999999999999943
637.52373870231111e-131.50474774046222e-120.999999999999248
642.37092564225393e-124.74185128450785e-120.999999999997629
651.44334084581408e-112.88668169162815e-110.999999999985567
661.30868788362604e-102.61737576725208e-100.999999999869131
678.00294917094777e-101.60058983418955e-090.999999999199705
688.21449188966102e-091.64289837793220e-080.999999991785508
694.26657754293422e-088.53315508586844e-080.999999957334225
701.84672244222063e-073.69344488444125e-070.999999815327756
714.65281325769671e-079.30562651539343e-070.999999534718674
721.35789510182238e-062.71579020364477e-060.999998642104898
733.17313836410521e-066.34627672821042e-060.999996826861636
746.3213246676921e-061.26426493353842e-050.999993678675332
751.04380276281203e-052.08760552562406e-050.999989561972372
761.79189170700191e-053.58378341400381e-050.99998208108293
773.6429143867671e-057.2858287735342e-050.999963570856132
787.01350376489857e-050.0001402700752979710.999929864962351
790.0001492783622880890.0002985567245761780.999850721637712
800.0002718639594135570.0005437279188271140.999728136040587
810.0005942652822297380.001188530564459480.99940573471777
820.001119118685570180.002238237371140370.99888088131443
830.002046563728547230.004093127457094460.997953436271453
840.003029994473341350.006059988946682690.996970005526659
850.003952982827164650.007905965654329310.996047017172835
860.004383563769772210.008767127539544420.995616436230228
870.005267447594656250.01053489518931250.994732552405344
880.005412195731093780.01082439146218760.994587804268906
890.005537125068461920.01107425013692380.994462874931538
900.005497943909940870.01099588781988170.99450205609006
910.005283019927978940.01056603985595790.994716980072021
920.004742007712704280.009484015425408560.995257992287296
930.004213521744934250.00842704348986850.995786478255066
940.003437514748548740.006875029497097480.996562485251451
950.002844065813547570.005688131627095140.997155934186452
960.002377401920274420.004754803840548830.997622598079726
970.001950669675426880.003901339350853770.998049330324573
980.001607235772034260.003214471544068520.998392764227966
990.001315193516849120.002630387033698240.99868480648315
1000.001072083240993930.002144166481987870.998927916759006
1010.0008701604758996820.001740320951799360.9991298395241
1020.0006962493193289550.001392498638657910.99930375068067
1030.0005393787058569220.001078757411713840.999460621294143
1040.0004315105292933240.0008630210585866480.999568489470707
1050.0003219375689872860.0006438751379745720.999678062431013
1060.0002303096938525300.0004606193877050600.999769690306147
1070.0001617518154452210.0003235036308904430.999838248184555
1080.0001236231629391100.0002472463258782190.999876376837061
1090.0001094412787021510.0002188825574043010.999890558721298
1108.82335013294953e-050.0001764670026589910.99991176649867
1117.61453513340843e-050.0001522907026681690.999923854648666
1126.9265773522222e-050.0001385315470444440.999930734226478
1136.10653987313552e-050.0001221307974627100.999938934601269
1145.70255158741307e-050.0001140510317482610.999942974484126
1154.96818260932264e-059.93636521864528e-050.999950318173907
1163.96364817407577e-057.92729634815153e-050.99996036351826
1172.98432769352736e-055.96865538705471e-050.999970156723065
1181.99586657201535e-053.9917331440307e-050.99998004133428
1191.32023908137916e-052.64047816275833e-050.999986797609186
1209.86937752095993e-061.97387550419199e-050.999990130622479
1217.69492814438118e-061.53898562887624e-050.999992305071856
1226.32140272456242e-061.26428054491248e-050.999993678597275
1234.47868144942395e-068.9573628988479e-060.99999552131855
1242.99461351380928e-065.98922702761855e-060.999997005386486
1252.08369074206846e-064.16738148413691e-060.999997916309258
1261.35466003829479e-062.70932007658957e-060.999998645339962
1272.03299471721094e-064.06598943442187e-060.999997967005283
1284.42482754784855e-068.8496550956971e-060.999995575172452
1291.23665265652356e-052.47330531304713e-050.999987633473435
1302.03914863182099e-054.07829726364199e-050.999979608513682
1312.36837735803393e-054.73675471606787e-050.99997631622642
1322.99677175963166e-055.99354351926332e-050.999970032282404
1335.12000986372453e-050.0001024001972744910.999948799901363
1348.33118106996719e-050.0001666236213993440.9999166881893
1350.0001197601594367010.0002395203188734020.999880239840563
1360.0001190183547033270.0002380367094066540.999880981645297
1370.0001135919722409950.0002271839444819900.99988640802776
1380.0001154288089846720.0002308576179693430.999884571191015
1390.0001296741598180090.0002593483196360170.999870325840182
1400.0001391017388583660.0002782034777167320.999860898261142
1410.0001403125402851550.0002806250805703110.999859687459715
1420.0001412943851525560.0002825887703051120.999858705614847
1430.00013593832738270.00027187665476540.999864061672617
1440.0001341684479741510.0002683368959483010.999865831552026
1450.0001394531275602430.0002789062551204860.99986054687244
1460.0001129470295962100.0002258940591924200.999887052970404
1478.6745092416176e-050.0001734901848323520.999913254907584
1480.0001617068463738920.0003234136927477840.999838293153626
1490.0004002835145785910.0008005670291571820.999599716485421
1500.0006249065769420520.001249813153884100.999375093423058
1510.00057336730484150.0011467346096830.999426632695159
1520.0005201364815082510.001040272963016500.999479863518492
1530.000546435676066010.001092871352132020.999453564323934
1540.001297694718482960.002595389436965920.998702305281517
1550.003490259659182670.006980519318365330.996509740340817
1560.004747592242942520.009495184485885030.995252407757057
1570.005722156158439090.01144431231687820.99427784384156
1580.01298250639885430.02596501279770870.987017493601146
1590.02160032918812580.04320065837625160.978399670811874
1600.01996378474819980.03992756949639960.9800362152518
1610.01601673532736790.03203347065473570.983983264672632
1620.01302532553121550.02605065106243110.986974674468784
1630.01390009686333160.02780019372666320.986099903136668
1640.01749036874797710.03498073749595420.982509631252023
1650.02092259223136910.04184518446273820.97907740776863
1660.01841402404259200.03682804808518390.981585975957408
1670.01484909627641580.02969819255283160.985150903723584
1680.01232247365067220.02464494730134440.987677526349328
1690.01994046157395510.03988092314791010.980059538426045
1700.03239449513177650.0647889902635530.967605504868223
1710.04724918912722430.09449837825444860.952750810872776
1720.04474041696490430.08948083392980850.955259583035096
1730.03809395049843760.07618790099687520.961906049501562
1740.03213377822186450.0642675564437290.967866221778136
1750.02721364874290980.05442729748581960.97278635125709
1760.02354920454842690.04709840909685370.976450795451573
1770.02147647750805650.0429529550161130.978523522491944
1780.02151924265955310.04303848531910620.978480757340447
1790.02131107866899260.04262215733798510.978688921331007
1800.01937779903994380.03875559807988750.980622200960056
1810.01924451004946270.03848902009892530.980755489950537
1820.02107112288315540.04214224576631070.978928877116845
1830.02233173376861210.04466346753722420.977668266231388
1840.02013631665363490.04027263330726990.979863683346365
1850.01671240080586100.03342480161172210.98328759919414
1860.01380061409602460.02760122819204910.986199385903975
1870.01131395734858200.02262791469716400.988686042651418
1880.009722727264173450.01944545452834690.990277272735827
1890.00825537088443260.01651074176886520.991744629115567
1900.007598243162028930.01519648632405790.992401756837971
1910.007172879513097880.01434575902619580.992827120486902
1920.006372434155355610.01274486831071120.993627565844644
1930.008788893490598360.01757778698119670.991211106509402
1940.01756161454324020.03512322908648030.98243838545676
1950.03588095514808900.07176191029617810.964119044851911
1960.06048061704996630.1209612340999330.939519382950034
1970.09519905387564180.1903981077512840.904800946124358
1980.1897147891807540.3794295783615080.810285210819246
1990.4494342674554840.8988685349109680.550565732544516
2000.696068220250420.6078635594991590.303931779749580
2010.7606630236541920.4786739526916150.239336976345808
2020.7738077317980420.4523845364039160.226192268201958
2030.8622660424942760.2754679150114470.137733957505724
2040.8940090311437560.2119819377124890.105990968856244
2050.9011022456360520.1977955087278950.0988977543639477
2060.954041858361570.09191628327685950.0459581416384298
2070.9829049901884630.03419001962307490.0170950098115374
2080.9859379147780850.02812417044382950.0140620852219147
2090.9800598324519630.03988033509607350.0199401675480367
2100.9741711960528980.0516576078942030.0258288039471015
2110.9664508611670850.06709827766583060.0335491388329153
2120.955461275038780.08907744992243910.0445387249612196
2130.9607479229522690.0785041540954620.039252077047731
2140.9589659260419670.08206814791606590.0410340739580329
2150.9329677139578970.1340645720842050.0670322860421027
2160.9065685400408950.1868629199182110.0934314599591053
2170.9157447580011240.1685104839977520.0842552419988762
2180.915524920411250.1689501591774980.0844750795887492
2190.9660812763261030.06783744734779430.0339187236738971
2200.9944427159310620.01111456813787560.00555728406893779
2210.9992177450579720.001564509884055090.000782254942027545
2220.9995493954746840.0009012090506314860.000450604525315743
2230.99932046666540.001359066669200540.000679533334600269


Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity
Description# significant tests% significant testsOK/NOK
1% type I error level1380.666666666666667NOK
5% type I error level1790.864734299516908NOK
10% type I error level1930.932367149758454NOK