| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.867291126035387 |
| beta | 0.0984720422261518 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 433800 | 449533.520299145 | -15733.5202991454 |
| 14 | 427700 | 427800.552459051 | -100.552459050843 |
| 15 | 413300 | 411492.331325255 | 1807.66867474484 |
| 16 | 379500 | 377201.808786689 | 2298.19121331070 |
| 17 | 379300 | 375924.653317406 | 3375.34668259404 |
| 18 | 353700 | 350203.306427682 | 3496.69357231836 |
| 19 | 378200 | 370648.333986023 | 7551.66601397679 |
| 20 | 380600 | 383909.311769447 | -3309.31176944723 |
| 21 | 394000 | 393434.698342544 | 565.301657455857 |
| 22 | 374000 | 364489.615073215 | 9510.38492678542 |
| 23 | 375000 | 355773.080711559 | 19226.9192884405 |
| 24 | 437600 | 453254.831482233 | -15654.8314822327 |
| 25 | 443900 | 437896.487479731 | 6003.51252026879 |
| 26 | 488800 | 440060.067909745 | 48739.9320902545 |
| 27 | 463900 | 473504.751780232 | -9604.75178023247 |
| 28 | 440000 | 435547.517694448 | 4452.48230555246 |
| 29 | 453800 | 442631.775530159 | 11168.2244698409 |
| 30 | 451600 | 430700.836245527 | 20899.1637544726 |
| 31 | 453400 | 475278.851952642 | -21878.8519526420 |
| 32 | 461400 | 467562.022050441 | -6162.02205044066 |
| 33 | 509100 | 480872.208745314 | 28227.7912546864 |
| 34 | 540600 | 485212.869285121 | 55387.1307148786 |
| 35 | 555100 | 529599.574211893 | 25500.4257881066 |
| 36 | 677400 | 640454.220173043 | 36945.7798269569 |
| 37 | 694600 | 690643.529409704 | 3956.4705902962 |
| 38 | 750100 | 713581.760617409 | 36518.2393825913 |
| 39 | 733900 | 744518.570950148 | -10618.5709501477 |
| 40 | 709300 | 723295.745452703 | -13995.7454527025 |
| 41 | 720500 | 729443.871771988 | -8943.87177198753 |
| 42 | 693200 | 713816.233987742 | -20616.2339877423 |
| 43 | 687200 | 725620.67539042 | -38420.6753904207 |
| 44 | 686800 | 713139.67895271 | -26339.6789527095 |
| 45 | 720900 | 719287.192448475 | 1612.80755152507 |
| 46 | 653100 | 707649.571175018 | -54549.5711750181 |
| 47 | 624700 | 646834.264969296 | -22134.2649692957 |
| 48 | 690000 | 707937.822473186 | -17937.8224731860 |
| 49 | 717800 | 691504.977229493 | 26295.0227705069 |
| 50 | 736500 | 725402.153134009 | 11097.8468659912 |
| 51 | 699900 | 713129.289164922 | -13229.2891649222 |
| 52 | 675600 | 674063.743880059 | 1536.25611994136 |
| 53 | 635600 | 680549.273728686 | -44949.2737286858 |
| 54 | 632500 | 615266.649449946 | 17233.3505500542 |
| 55 | 594900 | 643888.60064159 | -48988.60064159 |
| 56 | 604000 | 609296.557880548 | -5296.55788054818 |
| 57 | 620800 | 624652.457793821 | -3852.45779382077 |
| 58 | 578400 | 587603.190453828 | -9203.19045382761 |
| 59 | 571200 | 561072.531791726 | 10127.4682082739 |
| 60 | 627400 | 644122.923259774 | -16722.9232597742 |
| 61 | 657700 | 628127.211483274 | 29572.788516726 |
| 62 | 674100 | 656643.669577864 | 17456.3304221365 |
| 63 | 672800 | 640993.379763771 | 31806.6202362288 |
| 64 | 615300 | 641129.186146105 | -25829.1861461053 |
| 65 | 609100 | 613557.340366392 | -4457.3403663924 |
| 66 | 607600 | 590948.838724934 | 16651.1612750659 |
| 67 | 566900 | 609531.54260713 | -42631.5426071298 |
| 68 | 572700 | 586048.08024902 | -13348.0802490197 |
| 69 | 589200 | 593721.818103614 | -4521.8181036145 |
| 70 | 534800 | 554433.971746831 | -19633.9717468312 |
| 71 | 543100 | 519583.350223392 | 23516.6497766075 |
| 72 | 591100 | 609987.474784758 | -18887.4747847581 |
| 73 | 624800 | 597378.157206075 | 27421.8427939246 |
| 74 | 665300 | 621357.297186085 | 43942.702813915 |
| 75 | 642600 | 631780.993695041 | 10819.0063049587 |
| 76 | 608700 | 605471.400900418 | 3228.59909958241 |
| 77 | 594500 | 607824.752111993 | -13324.7521119929 |
| 78 | 563800 | 581457.000756397 | -17657.0007563973 |
| 79 | 596100 | 560617.239786976 | 35482.7602130243 |
| 80 | 597600 | 613639.103227117 | -16039.1032271167 |
| 81 | 633100 | 624791.74894034 | 8308.25105966022 |
| 82 | 591000 | 600363.014026969 | -9363.0140269685 |
| 83 | 584200 | 586761.176725511 | -2561.17672551086 |
| 84 | 655800 | 653308.084668684 | 2491.91533131606 |
| 85 | 670700 | 671599.718225432 | -899.718225431745 |
| 86 | 699700 | 677002.65023678 | 22697.3497632197 |
| 87 | 712900 | 666584.561348384 | 46315.4386516155 |
| 88 | 652000 | 675064.858945096 | -23064.8589450957 |
| 89 | 635100 | 655183.250118581 | -20083.250118581 |
| 90 | 603100 | 624567.682693935 | -21467.6826939352 |
| 91 | 610100 | 609338.318846377 | 761.681153623387 |
| 92 | 602000 | 624307.423410209 | -22307.4234102087 |
| 93 | 597600 | 631617.314816872 | -34017.3148168721 |
| 94 | 585400 | 562882.683118163 | 22517.316881837 |
| 95 | 567100 | 575303.568170968 | -8203.56817096833 |
| 96 | 620600 | 634616.117938667 | -14016.1179386668 |
| 97 | 646200 | 633719.17766856 | 12480.8223314396 |
| 98 | 644800 | 650580.021622272 | -5780.02162227186 |
| 99 | 645200 | 612887.559367783 | 32312.4406322171 |
| 100 | 644800 | 593109.356982743 | 51690.6430172565 |
| 101 | 593000 | 637936.188224223 | -44936.1882242232 |
| 102 | 569100 | 582937.593734109 | -13837.5937341086 |
| 103 | 518800 | 575282.843846143 | -56482.8438461425 |
| 104 | 538700 | 530660.969328712 | 8039.03067128791 |
| 105 | 554600 | 558445.93531038 | -3845.93531037972 |
| 106 | 507900 | 521667.945711604 | -13767.9457116041 |
| 107 | 488400 | 493729.731561694 | -5329.73156169429 |
| 108 | 563300 | 550196.515432721 | 13103.4845672792 |
| 109 | 592400 | 574085.823503602 | 18314.1764963983 |
| 110 | 598100 | 591829.977721433 | 6270.02227856684 |
| 111 | 546300 | 568920.210469729 | -22620.2104697287 |
| 112 | 516100 | 498656.193558542 | 17443.8064414584 |
| 113 | 518500 | 492618.12188207 | 25881.8781179304 |
| 114 | 477400 | 500874.920924275 | -23474.9209242754 |
| 115 | 483400 | 476087.787536216 | 7312.2124637842 |
| 116 | 469400 | 497691.160947983 | -28291.1609479826 |
| 117 | 501300 | 491621.028988655 | 9678.9710113448 |
| 118 | 457400 | 465642.407236377 | -8242.40723637666 |
| 119 | 446700 | 444474.247603951 | 2225.75239604869 |
| 120 | 501900 | 511443.333164543 | -9543.3331645428 |
| 121 | 550400 | 515951.881186529 | 34448.1188134711 |
| 122 | 593700 | 547037.515258405 | 46662.4847415945 |
| 123 | 548900 | 559722.477973085 | -10822.4779730854 |
| 124 | 534200 | 510411.649005697 | 23788.3509943034 |
| 125 | 550500 | 516942.069209227 | 33557.9307907734 |
| 126 | 541800 | 531907.8381469 | 9892.16185309994 |
| 127 | 569300 | 549596.76805854 | 19703.2319414604 |
| 128 | 587400 | 587731.483551768 | -331.483551767771 |
| 129 | 627700 | 623846.975868381 | 3853.02413161891 |
| 130 | 607000 | 602837.148136102 | 4162.85186389775 |
| 131 | 629500 | 607276.547151305 | 22223.4528486948 |
| 132 | 704600 | 705194.85077707 | -594.850777070038 |
| 133 | 767700 | 739233.881784062 | 28466.1182159383 |
| 134 | 812200 | 782172.935782436 | 30027.0642175641 |
| 135 | 824600 | 786801.252176063 | 37798.7478239366 |
| 136 | 856300 | 802404.659653683 | 53895.3403463167 |
| 137 | 812200 | 857066.684285315 | -44866.684285315 |
| 138 | 764100 | 814900.622545487 | -50800.6225454874 |
| 139 | 801700 | 790095.652573341 | 11604.3474266587 |
| 140 | 806000 | 826698.21368536 | -20698.2136853596 |
| 141 | 867200 | 852116.465054308 | 15083.5349456918 |
| 142 | 801600 | 848258.328383487 | -46658.3283834871 |
| 143 | 817500 | 814047.894139094 | 3452.10586090630 |
| 144 | 920900 | 894084.760308608 | 26815.2396913918 |
| 145 | 959700 | 959520.874007458 | 179.125992542249 |
| 146 | 997700 | 979486.107789712 | 18213.8922102879 |
| 147 | 949100 | 975243.530750466 | -26143.5307504656 |
| 148 | 910900 | 932408.800769329 | -21508.8007693288 |
| 149 | 920400 | 897009.348656907 | 23390.6513430928 |
| 150 | 914200 | 907526.68952471 | 6673.31047528947 |
| 151 | 926300 | 940030.451989342 | -13730.4519893415 |
| 152 | 906400 | 947390.245536353 | -40990.2455363529 |
| 153 | 926100 | 955241.64974575 | -29141.6497457498 |
| 154 | 902500 | 896340.401604388 | 6159.59839561197 |
| 155 | 895300 | 910606.136208164 | -15306.1362081638 |
| 156 | 979900 | 971890.163466395 | 8009.83653360454 |
| 157 | 1009700 | 1010291.13671698 | -591.136716982699 |
| 158 | 1043800 | 1024725.38603001 | 19074.6139699878 |
| 159 | 979800 | 1008159.87472786 | -28359.8747278603 |
| 160 | 921600 | 956645.907643506 | -35045.9076435063 |
| 161 | 923500 | 906936.185056051 | 16563.8149439488 |
| 162 | 914500 | 900202.879624468 | 14297.1203755324 |
| 163 | 891700 | 928150.795546316 | -36450.7955463161 |
| 164 | 916000 | 901787.264771205 | 14212.7352287947 |
| 165 | 931700 | 953402.134081721 | -21702.1340817214 |
| 166 | 902400 | 900587.260558522 | 1812.73944147793 |
| 167 | 893700 | 902812.430476704 | -9112.43047670356 |
| 168 | 941500 | 967669.528021328 | -26169.5280213284 |
| 169 | 980100 | 967473.652002377 | 12626.3479976233 |
| 170 | 1006900 | 989297.989041797 | 17602.0109582026 |
| 171 | 949200 | 958351.419446583 | -9151.41944658256 |
| 172 | 883200 | 917441.051625647 | -34241.0516256473 |
| 173 | 849900 | 870178.75190878 | -20278.7519087794 |
| 174 | 839200 | 822945.214978996 | 16254.7850210045 |
| 175 | 803900 | 837777.299826093 | -33877.2998260928 |
| 176 | 797900 | 812510.028344965 | -14610.0283449651 |
| 177 | 830800 | 824040.160651945 | 6759.83934805507 |
| 178 | 753300 | 791140.712777618 | -37840.7127776179 |
| 179 | 764100 | 746248.344155333 | 17851.6558446669 |
| 180 | 807600 | 823253.780860587 | -15653.7808605866 |
| 181 | 853700 | 829251.016756862 | 24448.9832431383 |
| 182 | 886200 | 854923.375251768 | 31276.6247482317 |
| 183 | 815700 | 826388.16515369 | -10688.1651536893 |
| 184 | 743000 | 774786.036391814 | -31786.0363918135 |
| 185 | 753600 | 725686.200428604 | 27913.7995713955 |
| 186 | 724800 | 723394.123255486 | 1405.87674451387 |
| 187 | 709600 | 715722.917063477 | -6122.91706347733 |
| 188 | 721900 | 716482.054551388 | 5417.94544861186 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 189 | 749327.050707691 | 703244.451869429 | 795409.649545954 |
| 190 | 705177.457094367 | 641529.599135961 | 768825.315052773 |
| 191 | 704258.111911153 | 624636.804009918 | 783879.419812388 |
| 192 | 763573.133119028 | 668598.963427645 | 858547.30281041 |
| 193 | 792044.277269829 | 681936.834388177 | 902151.72015148 |
| 194 | 798905.82931752 | 673681.233789091 | 924130.42484595 |
| 195 | 736491.924632955 | 596050.754046174 | 876933.095219736 |
| 196 | 691088.827742808 | 535261.36984541 | 846916.285640206 |
| 197 | 679923.245271661 | 508495.124802909 | 851351.365740414 |
| 198 | 649963.800898342 | 462691.50609987 | 837236.095696815 |
| 199 | 640013.945187637 | 436634.716123001 | 843393.174252274 |
| 200 | 648077.723003801 | 428316.092639857 | 867839.353367745 |
