| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.192470581329793 |
| beta | 0.127574015048930 |
| gamma | 0.278645614438447 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 106.47 | 105.551482371795 | 0.918517628205095 |
| 14 | 112.33 | 111.861993372184 | 0.46800662781601 |
| 15 | 106.81 | 106.593952474425 | 0.216047525574922 |
| 16 | 103.49 | 103.314388412293 | 0.175611587706996 |
| 17 | 104.13 | 103.974686964947 | 0.155313035052657 |
| 18 | 103.2 | 102.878642237662 | 0.321357762338479 |
| 19 | 105.55 | 107.995780266074 | -2.44578026607390 |
| 20 | 102.8 | 106.136521342062 | -3.33652134206226 |
| 21 | 106.68 | 104.669728536730 | 2.01027146326953 |
| 22 | 105.43 | 104.076813415260 | 1.35318658474043 |
| 23 | 109.01 | 107.014405259950 | 1.99559474005021 |
| 24 | 112.24 | 106.965892097590 | 5.27410790240981 |
| 25 | 112.87 | 108.444161152929 | 4.42583884707123 |
| 26 | 110.98 | 115.588951832551 | -4.60895183255118 |
| 27 | 112.85 | 109.422985495042 | 3.42701450495809 |
| 28 | 112.08 | 106.967116475584 | 5.11288352441589 |
| 29 | 110.72 | 108.909135177863 | 1.81086482213715 |
| 30 | 109.69 | 108.545756784914 | 1.14424321508602 |
| 31 | 112.53 | 113.595493962886 | -1.06549396288563 |
| 32 | 112.99 | 112.232225922287 | 0.757774077712995 |
| 33 | 111.74 | 113.287859006119 | -1.54785900611947 |
| 34 | 111.15 | 112.306175986157 | -1.15617598615718 |
| 35 | 114.82 | 115.287646212105 | -0.46764621210518 |
| 36 | 117.38 | 115.824567396278 | 1.55543260372221 |
| 37 | 117.81 | 116.626741390459 | 1.18325860954052 |
| 38 | 122.85 | 121.265365868894 | 1.58463413110579 |
| 39 | 116.96 | 118.402664935398 | -1.44266493539767 |
| 40 | 119.16 | 115.572272724875 | 3.58772727512513 |
| 41 | 117.74 | 116.623694282382 | 1.11630571761812 |
| 42 | 118.84 | 116.105532527152 | 2.73446747284784 |
| 43 | 123.81 | 121.132063254033 | 2.67793674596714 |
| 44 | 120.33 | 121.159419551819 | -0.829419551819441 |
| 45 | 119.2 | 121.611653517556 | -2.41165351755623 |
| 46 | 117.32 | 120.751529924536 | -3.43152992453589 |
| 47 | 128.58 | 123.593801149405 | 4.98619885059472 |
| 48 | 129.2 | 125.913374731223 | 3.28662526877739 |
| 49 | 126.19 | 127.285241492775 | -1.09524149277451 |
| 50 | 132.1 | 131.839923872836 | 0.260076127164268 |
| 51 | 128.12 | 128.272861505131 | -0.152861505130772 |
| 52 | 122.28 | 127.086063298654 | -4.806063298654 |
| 53 | 122.36 | 126.023151597029 | -3.66315159702911 |
| 54 | 123.13 | 124.889169112345 | -1.75916911234523 |
| 55 | 125.97 | 128.867723195293 | -2.89772319529294 |
| 56 | 126.14 | 126.725453167908 | -0.58545316790817 |
| 57 | 122.7 | 126.567338579470 | -3.86733857947016 |
| 58 | 122.67 | 124.860528905382 | -2.19052890538217 |
| 59 | 129.19 | 129.529216933957 | -0.339216933957431 |
| 60 | 133.01 | 130.004063651710 | 3.00593634828965 |
| 61 | 123.96 | 129.891718014941 | -5.9317180149407 |
| 62 | 128.96 | 133.257526732992 | -4.29752673299203 |
| 63 | 127.32 | 128.045474056270 | -0.725474056269633 |
| 64 | 131.38 | 125.012497821632 | 6.36750217836797 |
| 65 | 125.25 | 125.942770027757 | -0.692770027757291 |
| 66 | 127.91 | 125.467287337001 | 2.44271266299889 |
| 67 | 130.42 | 129.759927869398 | 0.660072130601662 |
| 68 | 128.44 | 128.671621144527 | -0.231621144526656 |
| 69 | 125.86 | 127.700722994668 | -1.84072299466835 |
| 70 | 125.71 | 126.668631848210 | -0.958631848209578 |
| 71 | 130.63 | 131.928592321967 | -1.29859232196711 |
| 72 | 131.78 | 132.885535267363 | -1.10553526736291 |
| 73 | 125.61 | 129.783835781963 | -4.17383578196264 |
| 74 | 131.84 | 133.711950959510 | -1.87195095950980 |
| 75 | 122.14 | 129.686321260562 | -7.54632126056227 |
| 76 | 127.13 | 126.684881808903 | 0.44511819109718 |
| 77 | 124.49 | 124.489512308610 | 0.000487691390347322 |
| 78 | 125.48 | 124.472919743057 | 1.00708025694263 |
| 79 | 129.86 | 127.672801620409 | 2.18719837959097 |
| 80 | 126.32 | 126.299953632264 | 0.0200463677359011 |
| 81 | 125.56 | 124.643778086254 | 0.916221913745801 |
| 82 | 125.64 | 124.036851064629 | 1.60314893537115 |
| 83 | 128.26 | 129.472335531010 | -1.21233553100973 |
| 84 | 125.47 | 130.250391586619 | -4.78039158661872 |
| 85 | 134.4 | 125.421815418854 | 8.97818458114577 |
| 86 | 134.5 | 132.393040314408 | 2.10695968559151 |
| 87 | 131.22 | 127.947892413523 | 3.27210758647696 |
| 88 | 121.62 | 129.183984927775 | -7.56398492777458 |
| 89 | 124.16 | 125.507505568038 | -1.34750556803806 |
| 90 | 127.5 | 125.585318150925 | 1.91468184907498 |
| 91 | 132.86 | 129.375072072604 | 3.48492792739628 |
| 92 | 127.87 | 127.945864632671 | -0.0758646326710419 |
| 93 | 124.07 | 126.65203302007 | -2.58203302007001 |
| 94 | 124.25 | 125.619617850366 | -1.36961785036640 |
| 95 | 131.16 | 129.869667656014 | 1.29033234398639 |
| 96 | 129.24 | 130.408260719601 | -1.16826071960111 |
| 97 | 129.24 | 129.541197716841 | -0.301197716840733 |
| 98 | 135.51 | 133.122845507648 | 2.38715449235212 |
| 99 | 128.97 | 128.943238492594 | 0.0267615074057801 |
| 100 | 126.89 | 126.986168482726 | -0.0961684827264833 |
| 101 | 127.52 | 126.198938274467 | 1.32106172553317 |
| 102 | 130.31 | 127.643051773363 | 2.66694822663679 |
| 103 | 132.39 | 132.068035005663 | 0.321964994336554 |
| 104 | 132.69 | 129.288267995644 | 3.40173200435555 |
| 105 | 128.73 | 128.244684696683 | 0.485315303317236 |
| 106 | 129.66 | 128.295608866186 | 1.36439113381445 |
| 107 | 127.72 | 133.957687935371 | -6.23768793537073 |
| 108 | 132.63 | 132.596580060621 | 0.0334199393790016 |
| 109 | 129.74 | 132.287854035257 | -2.54785403525716 |
| 110 | 138.46 | 136.118786968167 | 2.34121303183309 |
| 111 | 134.31 | 131.474868873174 | 2.83513112682562 |
| 112 | 128.8 | 130.175277777956 | -1.37527777795646 |
| 113 | 129.95 | 129.573957903431 | 0.376042096568767 |
| 114 | 134.15 | 131.229026554189 | 2.92097344581143 |
| 115 | 136.01 | 135.271483872538 | 0.738516127462276 |
| 116 | 135.1 | 133.371348136016 | 1.72865186398420 |
| 117 | 132.27 | 131.414893879386 | 0.855106120613897 |
| 118 | 132.49 | 131.809260558351 | 0.680739441649138 |
| 119 | 130.06 | 135.686855801320 | -5.62685580131964 |
| 120 | 136.11 | 135.927081330937 | 0.182918669063412 |
| 121 | 131.47 | 135.142651879377 | -3.67265187937747 |
| 122 | 140.61 | 139.905933508318 | 0.704066491682426 |
| 123 | 141.65 | 135.066580776184 | 6.58341922381572 |
| 124 | 126.75 | 133.641587229086 | -6.89158722908567 |
| 125 | 133.9 | 132.337729219414 | 1.56227078058606 |
| 126 | 138.75 | 134.788002209638 | 3.96199779036246 |
| 127 | 141.86 | 138.55954672637 | 3.30045327363004 |
| 128 | 141.13 | 137.458015129690 | 3.67198487030984 |
| 129 | 138.76 | 135.809463574725 | 2.95053642527520 |
| 130 | 138.65 | 136.749784368819 | 1.90021563118111 |
| 131 | 138.59 | 139.654616096987 | -1.06461609698732 |
| 132 | 147.09 | 142.404068362978 | 4.68593163702161 |
| 133 | 140.17 | 142.053191249567 | -1.88319124956735 |
| 134 | 152.38 | 148.624069705725 | 3.75593029427472 |
| 135 | 144.02 | 146.248340050457 | -2.22834005045721 |
| 136 | 139.55 | 140.432192999611 | -0.88219299961051 |
| 137 | 141.1 | 142.67168680762 | -1.57168680762013 |
| 138 | 145.85 | 145.466265966126 | 0.383734033874106 |
| 139 | 147.88 | 148.719908643336 | -0.839908643336287 |
| 140 | 145.17 | 147.123081524382 | -1.95308152438204 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 141 | 144.309416864195 | 138.640816787854 | 149.978016940536 |
| 142 | 144.452943639876 | 138.652384600902 | 150.253502678850 |
| 143 | 146.285686063592 | 140.325670711995 | 152.245701415188 |
| 144 | 150.520919778240 | 144.372939051838 | 156.668900504642 |
| 145 | 147.661848428151 | 141.296875220489 | 154.026821635813 |
| 146 | 155.782168282825 | 149.171103280559 | 162.393233285091 |
| 147 | 151.162858917366 | 144.276909214617 | 158.048808620116 |
| 148 | 145.959093788209 | 138.770074440977 | 153.148113135442 |
| 149 | 148.115488622158 | 140.596046171468 | 155.634931072847 |
| 150 | 151.593411892844 | 143.717175685198 | 159.469648100490 |
| 151 | 154.429279909891 | 146.170951267248 | 162.687608552534 |
| 152 | 152.695673980046 | 144.031065103138 | 161.360282856954 |
