| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.249369978113487 |
| beta | 0.0512362761576963 |
| gamma | 0.657312630987632 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 8692 | 8548.66232091143 | 143.337679088572 |
| 14 | 8119 | 8023.70009009712 | 95.2999099028793 |
| 15 | 8236 | 8169.4813416246 | 66.5186583754003 |
| 16 | 7432 | 7397.82073465809 | 34.1792653419134 |
| 17 | 7669 | 7648.2004801926 | 20.7995198074041 |
| 18 | 7453 | 7427.71499643859 | 25.2850035614083 |
| 19 | 7566 | 7598.44488785889 | -32.4448878588855 |
| 20 | 7731 | 7755.71198879056 | -24.7119887905565 |
| 21 | 7657 | 7639.89157402041 | 17.1084259795907 |
| 22 | 8130 | 8286.65203467525 | -156.652034675255 |
| 23 | 8401 | 8227.36023747515 | 173.63976252485 |
| 24 | 8737 | 8500.49708831971 | 236.502911680291 |
| 25 | 9009 | 9097.23287630184 | -88.232876301845 |
| 26 | 7919 | 8466.0280075195 | -547.028007519495 |
| 27 | 8228 | 8436.35517880576 | -208.355178805758 |
| 28 | 7903 | 7557.2685429604 | 345.731457039593 |
| 29 | 7912 | 7882.6730971296 | 29.3269028704008 |
| 30 | 7857 | 7657.07585408722 | 199.924145912775 |
| 31 | 7965 | 7846.85190019147 | 118.148099808531 |
| 32 | 8091 | 8053.31124794798 | 37.6887520520186 |
| 33 | 8024 | 7971.75870423902 | 52.2412957609777 |
| 34 | 8772 | 8567.71744196488 | 204.28255803512 |
| 35 | 8656 | 8775.66001583302 | -119.660015833022 |
| 36 | 8953 | 9021.29804052152 | -68.2980405215221 |
| 37 | 9014 | 9395.4329276704 | -381.432927670394 |
| 38 | 8103 | 8431.71485293299 | -328.714852932986 |
| 39 | 8876 | 8631.76307605621 | 244.236923943788 |
| 40 | 8231 | 8113.69363333018 | 117.306366669819 |
| 41 | 8173 | 8230.70430729582 | -57.704307295824 |
| 42 | 8087 | 8061.16948816662 | 25.8305118333783 |
| 43 | 8296 | 8168.18391119161 | 127.816088808388 |
| 44 | 8007 | 8339.84475650069 | -332.84475650069 |
| 45 | 8382 | 8164.77055208496 | 217.229447915038 |
| 46 | 9168 | 8888.58196810876 | 279.418031891239 |
| 47 | 9137 | 8951.16601916727 | 185.833980832735 |
| 48 | 9321 | 9308.72250007963 | 12.2774999203684 |
| 49 | 9234 | 9556.16180007207 | -322.161800072066 |
| 50 | 8451 | 8599.30506630544 | -148.305066305436 |
| 51 | 9101 | 9155.87752096593 | -54.8775209659252 |
| 52 | 8279 | 8476.48027346981 | -197.480273469810 |
| 53 | 8284 | 8424.83301748166 | -140.833017481658 |
| 54 | 8225 | 8268.26822296387 | -43.2682229638667 |
| 55 | 8597 | 8405.81277949528 | 191.187220504722 |
| 56 | 8305 | 8357.46770846207 | -52.4677084620726 |
| 57 | 8620 | 8527.16108261353 | 92.8389173864725 |
| 58 | 9102 | 9265.12395011131 | -163.123950111309 |
| 59 | 9258 | 9161.31270904705 | 96.687290952952 |
| 60 | 9652 | 9403.46064217936 | 248.539357820642 |
| 61 | 9522 | 9537.57826164334 | -15.5782616433353 |
| 62 | 8874 | 8721.12160883256 | 152.878391167438 |
| 63 | 9415 | 9419.8185948305 | -4.81859483049811 |
| 64 | 8525 | 8658.58048560047 | -133.580485600472 |
| 65 | 8862 | 8653.38448638428 | 208.615513615725 |
| 66 | 8421 | 8634.89050222635 | -213.890502226353 |
| 67 | 8626 | 8860.340629945 | -234.340629945000 |
| 68 | 8750 | 8578.15524642156 | 171.844753578436 |
| 69 | 8852 | 8886.37440435157 | -34.3744043515671 |
| 70 | 9412 | 9485.42011074136 | -73.4201107413592 |
| 71 | 9570 | 9535.66867963182 | 34.3313203681846 |
| 72 | 9513 | 9846.76492259804 | -333.764922598042 |
| 73 | 9986 | 9697.67727031745 | 288.322729682553 |
| 74 | 8907 | 9018.45659956016 | -111.456599560161 |
| 75 | 9663 | 9577.41920853128 | 85.5807914687248 |
| 76 | 8799 | 8754.24889341289 | 44.7511065871131 |
| 77 | 8931 | 8963.896244905 | -32.8962449050014 |
| 78 | 8732 | 8665.99659816813 | 66.0034018318693 |
| 79 | 8936 | 8954.8953605796 | -18.8953605796105 |
| 80 | 9127 | 8926.35282553768 | 200.647174462321 |
| 81 | 9070 | 9146.00299447824 | -76.0029944782418 |
| 82 | 9773 | 9733.46526688064 | 39.5347331193607 |
| 83 | 9670 | 9870.94145799384 | -200.941457993844 |
| 84 | 9929 | 9942.57289149 | -13.5728914899919 |
| 85 | 10095 | 10190.7613141764 | -95.761314176405 |
| 86 | 9025 | 9192.2698425214 | -167.269842521408 |
| 87 | 9659 | 9848.39537533675 | -189.395375336746 |
| 88 | 8954 | 8916.77973397327 | 37.2202660267321 |
| 89 | 9022 | 9083.2375842558 | -61.2375842557922 |
| 90 | 8855 | 8817.8724447578 | 37.1275552421994 |
| 91 | 9034 | 9054.47436459077 | -20.4743645907674 |
| 92 | 9196 | 9128.11297123806 | 67.8870287619357 |
| 93 | 9038 | 9170.45919614657 | -132.459196146574 |
| 94 | 9650 | 9795.18450790367 | -145.184507903668 |
| 95 | 9715 | 9756.09127649013 | -41.0912764901295 |
| 96 | 10052 | 9950.98278995913 | 101.017210040869 |
| 97 | 10436 | 10179.6998236911 | 256.300176308887 |
| 98 | 9314 | 9217.39005386391 | 96.60994613609 |
| 99 | 9717 | 9940.7449940658 | -223.744994065793 |
| 100 | 8997 | 9097.570878582 | -100.570878582004 |
| 101 | 9062 | 9180.17584585839 | -118.175845858388 |
| 102 | 8885 | 8943.57199518728 | -58.5719951872779 |
| 103 | 9058 | 9125.45346179411 | -67.4534617941099 |
| 104 | 9095 | 9226.91280897517 | -131.912808975174 |
| 105 | 9149 | 9112.88916811824 | 36.1108318817569 |
| 106 | 9857 | 9771.0720306306 | 85.9279693693952 |
| 107 | 9848 | 9838.73459890986 | 9.26540109014059 |
| 108 | 10269 | 10117.2782594510 | 151.721740549019 |
| 109 | 10341 | 10436.4725050627 | -95.4725050626876 |
| 110 | 9690 | 9297.62395618912 | 392.376043810884 |
| 111 | 10125 | 9940.41776090334 | 184.582239096660 |
| 112 | 9349 | 9246.94836594103 | 102.051634058973 |
| 113 | 9224 | 9379.52310059401 | -155.523100594015 |
| 114 | 9224 | 9163.14658875263 | 60.8534112473735 |
| 115 | 9454 | 9383.04043455872 | 70.959565441277 |
| 116 | 9347 | 9498.55958523773 | -151.559585237732 |
| 117 | 9430 | 9470.8612575514 | -40.8612575514107 |
| 118 | 9933 | 10165.8085450773 | -232.808545077309 |
| 119 | 10148 | 10120.1697535903 | 27.8302464097178 |
| 120 | 10677 | 10487.3872203150 | 189.612779685043 |
| 121 | 10735 | 10703.3013179532 | 31.6986820468064 |
| 122 | 9760 | 9811.31170663398 | -51.3117066339801 |
| 123 | 10567 | 10250.0906302738 | 316.909369726232 |
| 124 | 9333 | 9530.63742867883 | -197.637428678832 |
| 125 | 9409 | 9458.3778133175 | -49.377813317491 |
| 126 | 9502 | 9372.77647567843 | 129.223524321573 |
| 127 | 9348 | 9618.92803529406 | -270.928035294060 |
| 128 | 9319 | 9534.5549359088 | -215.554935908796 |
| 129 | 9594 | 9540.95225488545 | 53.0477451145543 |
| 130 | 10160 | 10167.0173484601 | -7.01734846014915 |
| 131 | 10182 | 10307.2232652350 | -125.223265234954 |
| 132 | 10810 | 10718.0089033278 | 91.9910966721909 |
| 133 | 11105 | 10827.8014351240 | 277.198564876016 |
| 134 | 9874 | 9939.50382730206 | -65.5038273020637 |
| 135 | 10958 | 10563.0296290246 | 394.970370975407 |
| 136 | 9311 | 9590.0358574624 | -279.035857462410 |
| 137 | 9610 | 9569.3869976993 | 40.6130023006936 |
| 138 | 9398 | 9593.55671546348 | -195.556715463485 |
| 139 | 9784 | 9555.61160341727 | 228.388396582734 |
| 140 | 9425 | 9624.00204125265 | -199.002041252646 |
| 141 | 9557 | 9772.71324168863 | -215.713241688629 |
| 142 | 10166 | 10308.6708856380 | -142.670885637965 |
| 143 | 10337 | 10353.8566286324 | -16.8566286324203 |
| 144 | 10770 | 10903.6756264918 | -133.675626491780 |
| 145 | 11265 | 11043.8318408342 | 221.168159165794 |
| 146 | 10183 | 9960.36324991165 | 222.636750088348 |
| 147 | 10941 | 10890.1179234794 | 50.8820765206365 |
| 148 | 9628 | 9486.2460519468 | 141.753948053205 |
| 149 | 9709 | 9730.9513695131 | -21.9513695131027 |
| 150 | 9637 | 9620.05302311938 | 16.9469768806230 |
| 151 | 9579 | 9849.27991346124 | -270.279913461243 |
| 152 | 9741 | 9576.20786233132 | 164.792137668685 |
| 153 | 9754 | 9809.57950400727 | -55.579504007268 |
| 154 | 10508 | 10435.2797004233 | 72.720299576742 |
| 155 | 10749 | 10604.6353901295 | 144.364609870532 |
| 156 | 11079 | 11158.4005351526 | -79.4005351526084 |
| 157 | 11608 | 11505.5818424813 | 102.418157518663 |
| 158 | 10668 | 10365.7092055812 | 302.290794418832 |
| 159 | 10933 | 11262.4383274395 | -329.438327439499 |
| 160 | 9703 | 9778.82993137044 | -75.8299313704356 |
| 161 | 9799 | 9890.20791095798 | -91.207910957979 |
| 162 | 9656 | 9778.4844879191 | -122.484487919101 |
| 163 | 9648 | 9828.15242422552 | -180.152424225518 |
| 164 | 9712 | 9789.97724271547 | -77.9772427154749 |
| 165 | 9766 | 9849.54577236036 | -83.545772360365 |
| 166 | 10540 | 10530.0235363802 | 9.9764636198106 |
| 167 | 10564 | 10712.8844517297 | -148.884451729693 |
| 168 | 10911 | 11070.9316303691 | -159.931630369090 |
| 169 | 11218 | 11472.6181496528 | -254.618149652755 |
| 170 | 10230 | 10342.1171907060 | -112.117190706040 |
| 171 | 10410 | 10788.3328955721 | -378.332895572081 |
| 172 | 9227 | 9435.88250930809 | -208.882509308087 |
| 173 | 9378 | 9481.01981363205 | -103.019813632045 |
| 174 | 9105 | 9333.63238072211 | -228.632380722114 |
| 175 | 9128 | 9303.32683566798 | -175.326835667978 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 176 | 9291.52392388103 | 9044.40664659065 | 9538.6412011714 |
| 177 | 9342.44766986584 | 9080.18893788179 | 9604.70640184988 |
| 178 | 10033.5535699222 | 9751.27843222424 | 10315.8287076202 |
| 179 | 10107.7615748876 | 9808.43317072512 | 10407.0899790500 |
| 180 | 10457.4096739157 | 10136.8429937958 | 10777.9763540356 |
| 181 | 10813.3580694753 | 10469.7513586519 | 11156.9647802986 |
| 182 | 9842.24741296636 | 9497.27637471706 | 10187.2184512157 |
| 183 | 10154.6571105264 | 9785.25112216854 | 10524.0630988842 |
| 184 | 9009.85356146758 | 8646.95117998785 | 9372.7559429473 |
| 185 | 9148.11433846706 | 8763.31363824334 | 9532.91503869078 |
| 186 | 8963.45959761278 | 8564.65780366092 | 9362.26139156465 |
| 187 | 9012.44712684456 | 8672.88599950728 | 9352.00825418184 |
