| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.472554940548756 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | -3 | 2.41766482164627 | -5.41766482164627 |
| 4 | -3 | -0.142479456059871 | -2.85752054394013 |
| 5 | 0 | -1.49281490681835 | 1.49281490681835 |
| 6 | 6 | -0.787377847276507 | 6.78737784727651 |
| 7 | -1 | 2.42003108782519 | -3.42003108782519 |
| 8 | 0 | 0.803878500443058 | -0.803878500443058 |
| 9 | -1 | 0.424001743457766 | -1.42400174345777 |
| 10 | 1 | -0.248917315763244 | 1.24891731576324 |
| 11 | -4 | 0.341264732137568 | -4.34126473213757 |
| 12 | -1 | -1.71022136526411 | 0.710221365264111 |
| 13 | -1 | -1.37460275022527 | 0.374602750225273 |
| 14 | 0 | -1.19758236986317 | 1.19758236986317 |
| 15 | 3 | -0.631658904270241 | 3.63165890427024 |
| 16 | 0 | 1.08449945333054 | -1.08449945333054 |
| 17 | 8 | 0.57201387863677 | 7.42798612136323 |
| 18 | 8 | 4.08214541861456 | 3.91785458138544 |
| 19 | 8 | 5.93354695739982 | 2.06645304260018 |
| 20 | 8 | 6.91005955209255 | 1.08994044790745 |
| 21 | 11 | 7.42511629565514 | 3.57488370434486 |
| 22 | 13 | 9.11444525203054 | 3.88555474796946 |
| 23 | 5 | 10.9505833449562 | -5.95058334495619 |
| 24 | 12 | 8.13860578615 | 3.86139421385 |
| 25 | 13 | 9.9633266993112 | 3.03667330068880 |
| 26 | 9 | 11.3983216703842 | -2.39832167038419 |
| 27 | 11 | 10.264982916019 | 0.735017083981003 |
| 28 | 7 | 10.6123188704420 | -3.61231887044196 |
| 29 | 12 | 8.90529974137711 | 3.09470025862289 |
| 30 | 11 | 10.3677156381069 | 0.632284361893129 |
| 31 | 10 | 10.6665047371512 | -0.666504737151188 |
| 32 | 13 | 10.3515446307112 | 2.64845536928875 |
| 33 | 14 | 11.6030853002915 | 2.39691469970847 |
| 34 | 10 | 12.7357591837127 | -2.73575918371271 |
| 35 | 13 | 11.4429626652976 | 1.55703733470236 |
| 36 | 12 | 12.1787483504301 | -0.178748350430105 |
| 37 | 13 | 12.0942799343194 | 0.90572006568058 |
| 38 | 17 | 12.5222824261109 | 4.47771757388908 |
| 39 | 15 | 14.6382499880342 | 0.361750011965803 |
| 40 | 6 | 14.8091967434322 | -8.80919674343221 |
| 41 | 9 | 10.6463673000573 | -1.64636730005731 |
| 42 | 6 | 9.86836829845731 | -3.86836829845731 |
| 43 | 11 | 8.04035174715913 | 2.95964825284087 |
| 44 | 12 | 9.43894815132558 | 2.56105184867442 |
| 45 | 13 | 10.6491858554182 | 2.3508141445818 |
| 46 | 11 | 11.7600746937522 | -0.760074693752227 |
| 47 | 16 | 11.4008976420335 | 4.59910235796647 |
| 48 | 16 | 13.5742261833800 | 2.42577381661998 |
| 49 | 19 | 14.7205375850776 | 4.27946241492240 |
| 50 | 14 | 16.7428186921419 | -2.74281869214190 |
| 51 | 15 | 15.4466861681408 | -0.446686168140765 |
| 52 | 12 | 15.2356024125111 | -3.23560241251106 |
| 53 | 14 | 13.7066025068275 | 0.293397493172517 |
| 54 | 16 | 13.8452489417708 | 2.15475105822922 |
| 55 | 13 | 14.8634871999897 | -1.86348719998966 |
| 56 | 13 | 13.9828871169852 | -0.982887116985179 |
| 57 | 15 | 13.5184189538521 | 1.48158104614789 |
| 58 | 12 | 14.2185473970327 | -2.21854739703269 |
| 59 | 13 | 13.1701618637233 | -0.170161863723312 |
| 60 | 12 | 13.0897510343279 | -1.08975103432788 |
| 61 | 15 | 12.5747837990881 | 2.42521620091188 |
| 62 | 10 | 13.7208316967279 | -3.72083169672792 |
| 63 | 8 | 11.9625342954887 | -3.96253429548873 |
| 64 | 11 | 10.0900191370616 | 0.909980862938353 |
| 65 | 8 | 10.520035089648 | -2.52003508964799 |
| 66 | 13 | 9.3291800576786 | 3.67081994232140 |
| 67 | 9 | 11.0638441572875 | -2.06384415728748 |
| 68 | 8 | 10.0885644042386 | -2.0885644042386 |
| 69 | 8 | 9.10160297636138 | -1.10160297636138 |
| 70 | 6 | 8.5810350473586 | -2.58103504735860 |
| 71 | 8 | 7.3613541839998 | 0.6386458160002 |
| 72 | 6 | 7.66314941961149 | -1.66314941961149 |
| 73 | 12 | 6.87721994450328 | 5.12278005549672 |
| 74 | 16 | 9.29801496907289 | 6.70198503092711 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 75 | 12.4650711069213 | 6.26931740694556 | 18.6608248068970 |
| 76 | 12.4650711069213 | 5.61236536631645 | 19.3177768475262 |
| 77 | 12.4650711069213 | 5.01310572697795 | 19.9170364868647 |
| 78 | 12.4650711069213 | 4.45857374038018 | 20.4715684734624 |
| 79 | 12.4650711069213 | 3.94003667080402 | 20.9901055430386 |
| 80 | 12.4650711069213 | 3.45128032870035 | 21.4788618851423 |
| 81 | 12.4650711069213 | 2.9876961407138 | 21.9424460731288 |
| 82 | 12.4650711069213 | 2.54575417949872 | 22.3843880343439 |
| 83 | 12.4650711069213 | 2.12267968311569 | 22.8074625307269 |
| 84 | 12.4650711069213 | 1.71624454679096 | 23.2138976670516 |
| 85 | 12.4650711069213 | 1.32462746780535 | 23.6055147460373 |
| 86 | 12.4650711069213 | 0.946316984496661 | 23.9838252293459 |
