| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.562791973128805 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 43129 | 39690 | 3439 |
| 3 | 37863 | 41625.44159559 | -3762.44159558996 |
| 4 | 35953 | 39507.969666226 | -3554.96966622600 |
| 5 | 29133 | 37507.2612733576 | -8374.26127335762 |
| 6 | 24693 | 32794.2942478285 | -8101.29424782854 |
| 7 | 22205 | 28234.9508731961 | -6029.95087319608 |
| 8 | 21725 | 24841.3429234003 | -3116.3429234003 |
| 9 | 27192 | 23087.4901405939 | 4104.50985940614 |
| 10 | 21790 | 25397.4753430957 | -3607.47534309568 |
| 11 | 13253 | 23367.2171767413 | -10114.2171767413 |
| 12 | 37702 | 17675.0169351898 | 20026.9830648102 |
| 13 | 30364 | 28946.0422500515 | 1417.95774994849 |
| 14 | 32609 | 29744.0574899583 | 2864.9425100417 |
| 15 | 30212 | 31356.4241380853 | -1144.42413808526 |
| 16 | 29965 | 30712.351419316 | -747.351419316026 |
| 17 | 28352 | 30291.7480394185 | -1939.74803941855 |
| 18 | 25814 | 29200.0734129415 | -3386.07341294145 |
| 19 | 22414 | 27294.4184757131 | -4880.41847571314 |
| 20 | 20506 | 24547.7581320723 | -4041.75813207227 |
| 21 | 28806 | 22273.0890980139 | 6532.91090198608 |
| 22 | 22228 | 25949.7589148174 | -3721.75891481735 |
| 23 | 13971 | 23855.1828716376 | -9884.18287163757 |
| 24 | 36845 | 18292.4440905427 | 18552.5559094573 |
| 25 | 35338 | 28733.6736374087 | 6604.32636259134 |
| 26 | 35022 | 32450.535502198 | 2571.46449780198 |
| 27 | 34777 | 33897.7350807467 | 879.264919253328 |
| 28 | 26887 | 34392.5783195562 | -7505.57831955619 |
| 29 | 23970 | 30168.4990876204 | -6198.49908762038 |
| 30 | 22780 | 26680.0335556614 | -3900.03355566141 |
| 31 | 17351 | 24485.1259756022 | -7134.12597560218 |
| 32 | 21382 | 20470.0971412436 | 911.902858756432 |
| 33 | 24561 | 20983.3087504249 | 3577.6912495751 |
| 34 | 17409 | 22996.8046680189 | -5587.80466801893 |
| 35 | 11514 | 19852.0330534462 | -8338.03305344621 |
| 36 | 31514 | 15159.4549792840 | 16354.5450207160 |
| 37 | 27071 | 24363.6616411166 | 2707.33835888336 |
| 38 | 29462 | 25887.3299380399 | 3574.67006196009 |
| 39 | 26105 | 27899.1255554949 | -1794.12555549489 |
| 40 | 22397 | 26889.4060940771 | -4492.40609407711 |
| 41 | 23843 | 24361.1160042956 | -518.116004295585 |
| 42 | 21705 | 24069.5244759285 | -2364.52447592846 |
| 43 | 18089 | 22738.7890806093 | -4649.78908060933 |
| 44 | 20764 | 20121.9251093004 | 642.074890699565 |
| 45 | 25316 | 20483.2797039337 | 4832.7202960663 |
| 46 | 17704 | 23203.0958949365 | -5499.09589493648 |
| 47 | 15548 | 20108.2488658007 | -4560.24886580067 |
| 48 | 28029 | 17541.7774086583 | 10487.2225913417 |
| 49 | 29383 | 23443.9021034805 | 5939.09789651952 |
| 50 | 36438 | 26786.3787272678 | 9651.62127273216 |
| 51 | 32034 | 32218.2337072407 | -184.233707240717 |
| 52 | 22679 | 32114.5484556259 | -9435.54845562588 |
| 53 | 24319 | 26804.2975227317 | -2485.29752273174 |
| 54 | 18004 | 25405.5920261014 | -7401.59202610142 |
| 55 | 17537 | 21240.0354454374 | -3703.03544543737 |
| 56 | 20366 | 19155.9968205338 | 1210.00317946623 |
| 57 | 22782 | 19836.9768973977 | 2945.0231026023 |
| 58 | 19169 | 21494.4122602212 | -2325.41226022116 |
| 59 | 13807 | 20185.6889059534 | -6378.68890595338 |
| 60 | 29743 | 16595.8139905971 | 13147.1860094029 |
| 61 | 25591 | 23994.9447459204 | 1596.05525407964 |
| 62 | 29096 | 24893.1918315864 | 4202.80816841356 |
| 63 | 26482 | 27258.4985333698 | -776.498533369762 |
| 64 | 22405 | 26821.4913916430 | -4416.49139164297 |
| 65 | 27044 | 24335.9254870338 | 2708.07451296616 |
| 66 | 17970 | 25860.0080855659 | -7890.00808556589 |
| 67 | 18730 | 21419.5748670880 | -2689.57486708804 |
| 68 | 19684 | 19905.9037207619 | -221.903720761919 |
| 69 | 19785 | 19781.0180879097 | 3.98191209030483 |
| 70 | 18479 | 19783.2590760718 | -1304.25907607182 |
| 71 | 10698 | 19049.2325371782 | -8351.2325371782 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 72 | 14349.2258995222 | 1752.87577711768 | 26945.5760219267 |
| 73 | 14349.2258995222 | -104.968162408100 | 28803.4199614525 |
| 74 | 14349.2258995222 | -1749.82424493296 | 30448.2760439774 |
| 75 | 14349.2258995222 | -3241.54171100073 | 31939.9935100452 |
| 76 | 14349.2258995222 | -4616.29003601626 | 33314.7418350607 |
| 77 | 14349.2258995222 | -5897.90931203067 | 34596.3611110751 |
| 78 | 14349.2258995222 | -7103.09737439489 | 35801.5491734393 |
| 79 | 14349.2258995222 | -8244.08867409417 | 36942.5404731386 |
| 80 | 14349.2258995222 | -9330.16499205536 | 38028.6167910998 |
| 81 | 14349.2258995222 | -10368.5661250472 | 39067.0179240916 |
| 82 | 14349.2258995222 | -11365.0684159671 | 40063.5202150116 |
| 83 | 14349.2258995222 | -12324.3681912138 | 41022.8199902583 |
