Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999923349407294 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0 |
3 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0 |
4 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 0.01 |
5 | 0.62 | 0.629999233494073 | -0.00999923349407295 |
6 | 0.63 | 0.620000766447174 | 0.00999923355282606 |
7 | 0.63 | 0.629999233552822 | 7.66447178390806e-07 |
8 | 0.62 | 0.629999999941251 | -0.00999999994125134 |
9 | 0.63 | 0.620000766505923 | 0.0099992334940775 |
10 | 0.63 | 0.629999233552826 | 7.66447173949913e-07 |
11 | 0.63 | 0.629999999941251 | 5.87486725933672e-11 |
12 | 0.64 | 0.629999999999995 | 0.0100000000000046 |
13 | 0.64 | 0.639999233494073 | 7.66505927063399e-07 |
14 | 0.64 | 0.639999999941247 | 5.87531134854657e-11 |
15 | 0.64 | 0.639999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
16 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
17 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
18 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
19 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
20 | 0.63 | 0.64 | -0.01 |
21 | 0.64 | 0.630000766505927 | 0.00999923349407295 |
22 | 0.64 | 0.639999233552826 | 7.66447173949913e-07 |
23 | 0.64 | 0.639999999941251 | 5.87486725933672e-11 |
24 | 0.64 | 0.639999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
25 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
26 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
27 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
28 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
29 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
30 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
31 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
32 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0 |
33 | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.01 |
34 | 0.65 | 0.649999233494073 | 7.66505927063399e-07 |
35 | 0.65 | 0.649999999941247 | 5.87531134854657e-11 |
36 | 0.65 | 0.649999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
37 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0 |
38 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0 |
39 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.01 |
40 | 0.66 | 0.659999233494073 | 7.66505927063399e-07 |
41 | 0.66 | 0.659999999941247 | 5.87531134854657e-11 |
42 | 0.66 | 0.659999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
43 | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.02 |
44 | 0.69 | 0.679998466988146 | 0.0100015330118540 |
45 | 0.7 | 0.689999233376567 | 0.0100007666234333 |
46 | 0.7 | 0.699999233435311 | 7.66564689169691e-07 |
47 | 0.7 | 0.699999999941242 | 5.87576653998667e-11 |
48 | 0.7 | 0.699999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
49 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
50 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
51 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
52 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
53 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
54 | 0.71 | 0.7 | 0.01 |
55 | 0.7 | 0.709999233494073 | -0.00999923349407295 |
56 | 0.71 | 0.700000766447174 | 0.00999923355282606 |
57 | 0.7 | 0.709999233552822 | -0.00999923355282162 |
58 | 0.71 | 0.700000766447178 | 0.00999923355282162 |
59 | 0.71 | 0.709999233552822 | 7.66447178390806e-07 |
60 | 0.71 | 0.709999999941251 | 5.87486725933672e-11 |
61 | 0.71 | 0.709999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
62 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
63 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
64 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
65 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
66 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
67 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
68 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
69 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
70 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
71 | 0.7 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
72 | 0.7 | 0.700000766505927 | -7.66505927063399e-07 |
73 | 0.7 | 0.700000000058753 | -5.87531134854657e-11 |
74 | 0.7 | 0.700000000000005 | -4.55191440096314e-15 |
75 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
76 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
77 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
78 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
79 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
80 | 0.71 | 0.7 | 0.01 |
81 | 0.71 | 0.709999233494073 | 7.66505927063399e-07 |
82 | 0.7 | 0.709999999941247 | -0.0099999999412469 |
83 | 0.71 | 0.700000766505922 | 0.0099992334940775 |
84 | 0.71 | 0.709999233552826 | 7.66447173949913e-07 |
85 | 0.71 | 0.709999999941251 | 5.87486725933672e-11 |
86 | 0.71 | 0.709999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
87 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
88 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
89 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
90 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
91 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
92 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
93 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
94 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
95 | 0.7 | 0.71 | -0.01 |
96 | 0.7 | 0.700000766505927 | -7.66505927063399e-07 |
97 | 0.68 | 0.700000000058753 | -0.020000000058753 |
98 | 0.68 | 0.680001533011859 | -1.53301185867871e-06 |
99 | 0.69 | 0.680000000117506 | 0.00999999988249367 |
100 | 0.69 | 0.689999233494082 | 7.66505918070592e-07 |
101 | 0.7 | 0.689999999941247 | 0.0100000000587531 |
102 | 0.7 | 0.699999233494068 | 7.66505931615313e-07 |
103 | 0.7 | 0.699999999941247 | 5.87531134854657e-11 |
104 | 0.7 | 0.699999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
105 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0 |
106 | 0.71 | 0.7 | 0.01 |
107 | 0.71 | 0.709999233494073 | 7.66505927063399e-07 |
108 | 0.71 | 0.709999999941247 | 5.87531134854657e-11 |
109 | 0.71 | 0.709999999999995 | 4.55191440096314e-15 |
110 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
111 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
112 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
113 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
114 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0 |
115 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.05 |
116 | 0.77 | 0.759996167470365 | 0.0100038325296353 |
117 | 0.78 | 0.769999233200307 | 0.0100007667996928 |
118 | 0.85 | 0.779999233435297 | 0.0700007665647027 |
119 | 0.89 | 0.849994634399753 | 0.0400053656002471 |
120 | 0.9 | 0.889996933565015 | 0.0100030664349847 |
121 | 0.91 | 0.899999233259029 | 0.0100007667409712 |
122 | 0.91 | 0.909999233435302 | 7.66564698162497e-07 |
123 | 0.91 | 0.909999999941242 | 5.87576653998667e-11 |
124 | 0.9 | 0.909999999999995 | -0.00999999999999546 |
125 | 0.89 | 0.900000766505927 | -0.0100007665059271 |
126 | 0.88 | 0.89000076656468 | -0.0100007665646802 |
127 | 0.87 | 0.880000766564685 | -0.0100007665646847 |
128 | 0.86 | 0.870000766564685 | -0.0100007665646847 |
129 | 0.87 | 0.860000766564685 | 0.00999923343531528 |
130 | 0.87 | 0.86999923355283 | 7.66447169397999e-07 |
131 | 0.87 | 0.869999999941251 | 5.87486725933672e-11 |
132 | 0.85 | 0.869999999999995 | -0.0199999999999955 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
133 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.830179436859045 | 0.869823629164664 |
134 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.82196993013796 | 0.878033135885747 |
135 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.815670409763872 | 0.884332656259836 |
136 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.810359619747525 | 0.889643446276183 |
137 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.805680696478176 | 0.894322369545532 |
138 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.80145061319736 | 0.898552452826348 |
139 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.79756064172822 | 0.902442424295488 |
140 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.793939938828221 | 0.906063127195487 |
141 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.790539296203954 | 0.909463769819754 |
142 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.787322885371791 | 0.912680180651917 |
143 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.78426365858793 | 0.915739407435778 |
144 | 0.850001533011854 | 0.78134060236302 | 0.918662463660689 |