Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.72568966705914 |
beta | 0.184950675591331 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 103.8 | 103.8 | -1.4210854715202e-14 |
4 | 104 | 103.9 | 0.09999999999998 |
5 | 104 | 104.085990646125 | -0.085990646125154 |
6 | 104.1 | 104.125468413334 | -0.0254684133341812 |
7 | 104.2 | 104.205448250716 | -0.00544825071608557 |
8 | 104.3 | 104.299225266498 | 0.000774733502282743 |
9 | 104.4 | 104.397622219872 | 0.00237778012808576 |
10 | 104.5 | 104.497501625644 | 0.00249837435563904 |
11 | 104.7 | 104.597803869198 | 0.102196130801644 |
12 | 104.7 | 104.784172181489 | -0.0841721814892509 |
13 | 104.9 | 104.823997614924 | 0.0760023850762792 |
14 | 105 | 104.990260872716 | 0.00973912728359494 |
15 | 105.2 | 105.109744723465 | 0.0902552765345206 |
16 | 105.3 | 105.299772085633 | 0.000227914367258109 |
17 | 105.4 | 105.424498111258 | -0.0244981112583389 |
18 | 105.5 | 105.527992657623 | -0.0279926576231446 |
19 | 105.7 | 105.625194163033 | 0.0748058369671298 |
20 | 105.8 | 105.807035673381 | -0.00703567338057098 |
21 | 105.9 | 105.928541339806 | -0.0285413398062957 |
22 | 106 | 106.030609839193 | -0.0306098391929055 |
23 | 106.1 | 106.127068895461 | -0.0270688954611416 |
24 | 106.2 | 106.222464477636 | -0.022464477636035 |
25 | 106.6 | 106.318186328078 | 0.28181367192208 |
26 | 106.8 | 106.672543815171 | 0.127456184829086 |
27 | 107 | 106.931992429375 | 0.0680075706249568 |
28 | 107.1 | 107.157427556640 | -0.0574275566403486 |
29 | 107.3 | 107.284127965612 | 0.0158720343876126 |
30 | 107.4 | 107.466151423966 | -0.0661514239658914 |
31 | 107.6 | 107.579772674080 | 0.0202273259201178 |
32 | 107.7 | 107.758792937280 | -0.0587929372796907 |
33 | 107.9 | 107.872578012424 | 0.0274219875757069 |
34 | 108.2 | 108.052608858946 | 0.14739114105447 |
35 | 108.3 | 108.339482446957 | -0.0394824469567965 |
36 | 108.5 | 108.485444595645 | 0.0145554043553915 |
37 | 108.92 | 108.672575034371 | 0.247424965629492 |
38 | 109.23 | 109.061905093176 | 0.168094906824464 |
39 | 109.41 | 109.416227307533 | -0.00622730753259759 |
40 | 109.65 | 109.643209882938 | 0.00679011706162669 |
41 | 109.91 | 109.880550416608 | 0.029449583391866 |
42 | 110.01 | 110.138287319528 | -0.128287319527942 |
43 | 110.2 | 110.264337869122 | -0.0643378691223973 |
44 | 110.49 | 110.428160651551 | 0.0618393484485011 |
45 | 110.57 | 110.691848816094 | -0.121848816093760 |
46 | 110.72 | 110.805882220194 | -0.0858822201944065 |
47 | 110.94 | 110.934489375026 | 0.00551062497409305 |
48 | 111.09 | 111.130158991657 | -0.0401589916573357 |
49 | 111.28 | 111.287296628283 | -0.00729662828256039 |
50 | 111.41 | 111.467302812387 | -0.0573028123874906 |
51 | 111.62 | 111.603329025622 | 0.0166709743784281 |
52 | 111.76 | 111.795274776282 | -0.0352747762820513 |
53 | 111.89 | 111.944789565052 | -0.0547895650521752 |
54 | 112.04 | 112.072788993480 | -0.0327889934804801 |
55 | 112.12 | 112.212353175778 | -0.0923531757780154 |
56 | 112.3 | 112.296296899269 | 0.00370310073097357 |
57 | 112.47 | 112.450444688387 | 0.0195553116125495 |
58 | 112.59 | 112.618720914377 | -0.0287209143767484 |
59 | 112.78 | 112.748108752947 | 0.0318912470529256 |
60 | 112.73 | 112.925762551707 | -0.195762551707276 |
61 | 112.99 | 112.911935718927 | 0.0780642810725851 |
62 | 113.1 | 113.107299726806 | -0.00729972680589697 |
63 | 113.33 | 113.239736210298 | 0.0902637897021634 |
64 | 113.38 | 113.455088446087 | -0.0750884460871077 |
65 | 113.68 | 113.540368142424 | 0.139631857575708 |
66 | 113.65 | 113.800209084728 | -0.150209084728303 |
67 | 113.81 | 113.829554868301 | -0.0195548683008155 |
68 | 113.88 | 113.951090474958 | -0.0710904749582966 |
69 | 114.02 | 114.025685688732 | -0.00568568873229935 |
70 | 114.25 | 114.146981365132 | 0.103018634867709 |
71 | 114.28 | 114.360989476847 | -0.0809894768474777 |
72 | 114.38 | 114.43059465529 | -0.0505946552901122 |
73 | 114.73 | 114.515466389233 | 0.214533610767276 |
74 | 114.97 | 114.821532979782 | 0.148467020217836 |
75 | 115.05 | 115.099582495729 | -0.0495824957289557 |
76 | 115.29 | 115.227254720762 | 0.0627452792376886 |
77 | 115.37 | 115.444863521643 | -0.0748635216426834 |
78 | 115.54 | 115.552563095751 | -0.0125630957509486 |
79 | 115.76 | 115.703787266745 | 0.056212733254597 |
80 | 115.92 | 115.912466039043 | 0.00753396095716141 |
81 | 116.02 | 116.086830313366 | -0.0668303133661396 |
82 | 116.21 | 116.198259451800 | 0.0117405482001942 |
83 | 116.26 | 116.368282431346 | -0.108282431345572 |
84 | 116.51 | 116.436672654023 | 0.0733273459772192 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 116.646696976844 | 116.480435032221 | 116.812958921466 |
86 | 116.803508402376 | 116.584229184955 | 117.022787619797 |
87 | 116.960319827909 | 116.685724740546 | 117.234914915271 |
88 | 117.117131253441 | 116.784571144477 | 117.449691362405 |
89 | 117.273942678973 | 116.880673561429 | 117.667211796517 |
90 | 117.430754104506 | 116.974035907327 | 117.887472301685 |
91 | 117.587565530038 | 117.064703314969 | 118.110427745108 |
92 | 117.744376955571 | 117.152737975142 | 118.336015935999 |
93 | 117.901188381103 | 117.238208136533 | 118.564168625674 |
94 | 118.057999806636 | 117.321182874186 | 118.794816739085 |
95 | 118.214811232168 | 117.401729578008 | 119.027892886328 |
96 | 118.371622657700 | 117.479912789376 | 119.263332526024 |