Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.763672169637219 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 0 |
3 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.01 |
4 | 1.26 | 1.25763672169637 | 0.00236327830362781 |
5 | 1.26 | 1.25944149156596 | 0.000558508434039817 |
6 | 1.26 | 1.25986800891354 | 0.000131991086455896 |
7 | 1.27 | 1.25996880683291 | 0.0100311931670893 |
8 | 1.27 | 1.26762934988287 | 0.00237065011712811 |
9 | 1.29 | 1.26943974940127 | 0.0205602505987301 |
10 | 1.31 | 1.28514104058429 | 0.0248589594157129 |
11 | 1.32 | 1.30412513605621 | 0.015874863943792 |
12 | 1.32 | 1.31624832784686 | 0.00375167215314076 |
13 | 1.33 | 1.31911337545982 | 0.0108866245401842 |
14 | 1.33 | 1.32742718764244 | 0.00257281235755613 |
15 | 1.32 | 1.32939197283761 | -0.00939197283760818 |
16 | 1.32 | 1.32221958456354 | -0.00221958456353799 |
17 | 1.31 | 1.32052454960421 | -0.0105245496042077 |
18 | 1.3 | 1.31248724397351 | -0.0124872439735078 |
19 | 1.31 | 1.30295108327547 | 0.00704891672453023 |
20 | 1.29 | 1.30833414480408 | -0.0183341448040837 |
21 | 1.3 | 1.29433286866311 | 0.0056671313368939 |
22 | 1.3 | 1.29866069914677 | 0.00133930085322898 |
23 | 1.32 | 1.29968348593515 | 0.0203165140648467 |
24 | 1.31 | 1.31519864231052 | -0.00519864231051992 |
25 | 1.35 | 1.31122858385808 | 0.0387714161419228 |
26 | 1.35 | 1.34083723534309 | 0.00916276465691324 |
27 | 1.36 | 1.34783458370851 | 0.0121654162914930 |
28 | 1.37 | 1.35712497356237 | 0.0128750264376287 |
29 | 1.37 | 1.36695727293613 | 0.00304272706386821 |
30 | 1.37 | 1.36928091891461 | 0.000719081085390094 |
31 | 1.32 | 1.36983006112723 | -0.0498300611272349 |
32 | 1.32 | 1.33177623023304 | -0.0117762302330442 |
33 | 1.31 | 1.32278305094083 | -0.0127830509408278 |
34 | 1.31 | 1.31302099069426 | -0.00302099069426265 |
35 | 1.34 | 1.31071394417632 | 0.0292860558236787 |
36 | 1.31 | 1.33307888996731 | -0.0230788899673067 |
37 | 1.26 | 1.31545418399315 | -0.0554541839931548 |
38 | 1.27 | 1.27310536698764 | -0.00310536698764086 |
39 | 1.24 | 1.27073388464267 | -0.0307338846426695 |
40 | 1.25 | 1.24726327227622 | 0.00273672772377798 |
41 | 1.27 | 1.24935323507475 | 0.0206467649252542 |
42 | 1.25 | 1.26512059484120 | -0.0151205948412043 |
43 | 1.26 | 1.25357341737262 | 0.0064265826273835 |
44 | 1.27 | 1.25848121967102 | 0.0115187803289767 |
45 | 1.26 | 1.26727779163643 | -0.0072777916364275 |
46 | 1.26 | 1.26171994470727 | -0.00171994470726933 |
47 | 1.28 | 1.26040647080101 | 0.0195935291989870 |
48 | 1.27 | 1.27536950375525 | -0.00536950375525369 |
49 | 1.28 | 1.27126896317260 | 0.00873103682739607 |
50 | 1.27 | 1.27793661300976 | -0.007936613009764 |
51 | 1.26 | 1.27187564253303 | -0.0118756425330266 |
52 | 1.27 | 1.26280654483399 | 0.00719345516600578 |
53 | 1.27 | 1.26829998634781 | 0.00170001365219408 |
54 | 1.28 | 1.26959823946199 | 0.01040176053801 |
55 | 1.27 | 1.2775417745001 | -0.00754177450009896 |
56 | 1.26 | 1.27178233120469 | -0.0117823312046939 |
57 | 1.3 | 1.26278449277022 | 0.0372155072297791 |
58 | 1.31 | 1.29120493992054 | 0.0187950600794640 |
59 | 1.28 | 1.30555820422988 | -0.0255582042298821 |
60 | 1.29 | 1.28604011495362 | 0.00395988504638312 |
61 | 1.31 | 1.28906416895850 | 0.0209358310414978 |
62 | 1.29 | 1.30505228047312 | -0.0150522804731210 |
63 | 1.29 | 1.29355727278622 | -0.00355727278622475 |
64 | 1.32 | 1.29084068255958 | 0.029159317440423 |
65 | 1.3 | 1.31310884177445 | -0.0131088417744452 |
66 | 1.29 | 1.30309798413512 | -0.0130979841351238 |
67 | 1.31 | 1.29309541817278 | 0.01690458182722 |
68 | 1.29 | 1.30600497685358 | -0.0160049768535830 |
69 | 1.33 | 1.29378242145481 | 0.0362175785451861 |
70 | 1.35 | 1.32144077824142 | 0.0285592217585775 |
71 | 1.32 | 1.34325066108495 | -0.0232506610849459 |
72 | 1.33 | 1.32549477828871 | 0.00450522171129442 |
73 | 1.34 | 1.32893529072767 | 0.0110647092723335 |
74 | 1.34 | 1.33738510126407 | 0.00261489873592557 |
75 | 1.33 | 1.33938202665512 | -0.00938202665512033 |
76 | 1.33 | 1.33221723400381 | -0.00221723400381024 |
77 | 1.35 | 1.33052399410153 | 0.0194760058984731 |
78 | 1.32 | 1.34539727778188 | -0.0253972777818812 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
79 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.29149456757737 | 1.36050959953325 |
80 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.28258297250312 | 1.3694211946075 |
81 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.27521163415627 | 1.37679253295436 |
82 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.26878215437193 | 1.38322201273869 |
83 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.26300548966846 | 1.38899867744217 |
84 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.25771576437687 | 1.39428840273375 |
85 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.25280733010580 | 1.39919683700482 |
86 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.24820798044891 | 1.40379618666171 |
87 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.24386577597016 | 1.40813839114047 |
88 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.23974187506195 | 1.41226229204867 |
89 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.23580632913798 | 1.41619783797265 |
90 | 1.32600208355531 | 1.23203546894934 | 1.41996869816128 |