| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.594274923316469 |
| beta | 0.0241142539120671 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 43129 | 38294 | 4835 |
| 4 | 37863 | 39840.6072043022 | -1977.60720430219 |
| 5 | 35953 | 37310.3126917716 | -1357.31269177162 |
| 6 | 29133 | 35129.1926884732 | -5996.19268847325 |
| 7 | 24693 | 30105.3742131582 | -5412.37421315824 |
| 8 | 22205 | 25350.9424083448 | -3145.94240834485 |
| 9 | 21725 | 21898.3112741991 | -173.311274199077 |
| 10 | 27192 | 20209.7566427559 | 6982.2433572441 |
| 11 | 21790 | 22873.6277044564 | -1083.62770445643 |
| 12 | 13253 | 20728.6249365727 | -7475.62493657274 |
| 13 | 37702 | 14677.8890875344 | 23024.1109124656 |
| 14 | 30364 | 27082.3283597719 | 3281.67164022814 |
| 15 | 32609 | 27801.3590310283 | 4807.64096897165 |
| 16 | 30212 | 29496.1308896787 | 715.869110321277 |
| 17 | 29965 | 28769.5241005055 | 1195.4758994945 |
| 18 | 28352 | 28345.0673622576 | 6.93263774241859 |
| 19 | 25814 | 27214.3885164138 | -1400.38851641381 |
| 20 | 22414 | 25227.3057370169 | -2813.30573701693 |
| 21 | 20506 | 22360.2456169729 | -1854.24561697288 |
| 22 | 28806 | 20036.5586160955 | 8769.44138390453 |
| 23 | 22228 | 24151.9328411358 | -1923.93284113584 |
| 24 | 13971 | 21884.9320059530 | -7913.93200595302 |
| 25 | 36845 | 15944.8143023557 | 20900.1856976443 |
| 26 | 35338 | 27427.7142232784 | 7910.28577672164 |
| 27 | 35022 | 31304.4006866083 | 3717.59931339171 |
| 28 | 34777 | 32742.7537670093 | 2034.24623299068 |
| 29 | 26887 | 33209.8840829477 | -6322.88408294773 |
| 30 | 23970 | 28619.9713536830 | -4649.97135368304 |
| 31 | 22780 | 24957.5923105991 | -2177.59231059912 |
| 32 | 17351 | 22733.2801549976 | -5382.28015499757 |
| 33 | 21382 | 18527.3716300579 | 2854.62836994208 |
| 34 | 24561 | 19257.3595287044 | 5303.64047129556 |
| 35 | 17409 | 21518.7377067351 | -4109.73770673514 |
| 36 | 11514 | 18127.0867084793 | -6613.08670847931 |
| 37 | 31514 | 13152.9893589457 | 18361.0106410543 |
| 38 | 27071 | 23283.4941934939 | 3787.50580650611 |
| 39 | 29462 | 24807.6073983428 | 4654.39260165723 |
| 40 | 26105 | 26913.5894433004 | -808.589443300443 |
| 41 | 22397 | 25761.4707643099 | -3364.47076430986 |
| 42 | 23843 | 23042.2413731133 | 800.758626886691 |
| 43 | 21705 | 22809.778627581 | -1104.778627581 |
| 44 | 18089 | 21429.0708501340 | -3340.07085013404 |
| 45 | 20764 | 18672.1200852645 | 2091.87991473551 |
| 46 | 25316 | 19173.2191222223 | 6142.78087777768 |
| 47 | 17704 | 22169.6961175754 | -4465.6961175754 |
| 48 | 15548 | 18797.8256178990 | -3249.82561789898 |
| 49 | 28029 | 16101.9448518807 | 11927.0551481193 |
| 50 | 29383 | 22596.2243600674 | 6786.77563993261 |
| 51 | 36438 | 26133.0225215391 | 10304.9774784609 |
| 52 | 32034 | 31908.2752534138 | 125.724746586246 |
| 53 | 22679 | 31636.0550466623 | -8957.0550466623 |
| 54 | 24319 | 25837.8075297268 | -1518.80752972681 |
| 55 | 18004 | 24438.1587196985 | -6434.1587196985 |
| 56 | 17537 | 20025.2352698424 | -2488.23526984243 |
| 57 | 20366 | 17921.6175289993 | 2444.38247100073 |
| 58 | 22782 | 18784.3600320324 | 3997.63996796759 |
| 59 | 19169 | 20627.4526801134 | -1458.45268011344 |
| 60 | 13807 | 19207.2259372748 | -5400.22593727476 |
| 61 | 29743 | 15367.1142759824 | 14375.8857240176 |
| 62 | 25591 | 23485.4634342372 | 2105.53656576276 |
| 63 | 29096 | 24342.0251715679 | 4753.97482843212 |
| 64 | 26482 | 26840.6141734928 | -358.614173492802 |
| 65 | 22405 | 26295.7806192299 | -3890.78061922994 |
| 66 | 27044 | 23596.1123036503 | 3447.88769634975 |
| 67 | 17970 | 25307.0404807576 | -7337.04048075762 |
| 68 | 18730 | 20503.6128602856 | -1773.61286028561 |
| 69 | 19684 | 18980.9740096469 | 703.025990353104 |
| 70 | 19785 | 18940.2142334740 | 844.785766525962 |
| 71 | 18479 | 18995.8049367969 | -516.804936796925 |
| 72 | 10698 | 18234.8303580308 | -7536.8303580308 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 13194.0241901101 | 447.148586400082 | 25940.8997938201 |
| 74 | 12632.1673052573 | -2289.84902000316 | 27554.1836305178 |
| 75 | 12070.3104204046 | -4832.88156096959 | 28973.5024017788 |
| 76 | 11508.4535355519 | -7245.30761967335 | 30262.2146907771 |
| 77 | 10946.5966506991 | -9564.1391260273 | 31457.3324274256 |
| 78 | 10384.7397658464 | -11813.1161899158 | 32582.5957216086 |
| 79 | 9822.88288099367 | -14008.4803663051 | 33654.2461282924 |
| 80 | 9261.02599614093 | -16161.8812657304 | 34683.9332580123 |
| 81 | 8699.1691112882 | -18281.9828890066 | 35680.3211115830 |
| 82 | 8137.31222643546 | -20375.4157918343 | 36650.0402447052 |
| 83 | 7575.45534158273 | -22447.3732552596 | 37598.2839384251 |
| 84 | 7013.59845673 | -24502.0013783498 | 38529.1982918098 |
