Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.983484861538448 |
beta | 0.23196686548946 |
gamma | 0.942906046720505 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 55.6 | 51.4044871794872 | 4.19551282051281 |
14 | 55.7 | 56.5915872243153 | -0.89158722431533 |
15 | 56.1 | 56.922198331552 | -0.822198331552023 |
16 | 56.8 | 57.487646074217 | -0.687646074216943 |
17 | 57.5 | 58.0743805019632 | -0.574380501963169 |
18 | 58.3 | 58.7831397589259 | -0.483139758925937 |
19 | 58.9 | 58.8214113814092 | 0.0785886185908211 |
20 | 59.4 | 59.8800632447548 | -0.480063244754845 |
21 | 59.8 | 60.6006031302821 | -0.800603130282092 |
22 | 60 | 60.3315839080673 | -0.331583908067337 |
23 | 60 | 60.3565251305174 | -0.356525130517433 |
24 | 60.3 | 60.388100856527 | -0.0881008565269639 |
25 | 60.1 | 60.4539022893204 | -0.353902289320388 |
26 | 59.7 | 59.766336626544 | -0.066336626543972 |
27 | 59.5 | 59.7767516741339 | -0.276751674133855 |
28 | 59.4 | 59.8722711205326 | -0.472271120532625 |
29 | 59.3 | 59.7132600061644 | -0.413260006164435 |
30 | 59.2 | 59.6593296768512 | -0.459329676851169 |
31 | 59.1 | 58.8126274731411 | 0.28737252685886 |
32 | 59 | 59.1984087610925 | -0.198408761092544 |
33 | 59.3 | 59.3857086112982 | -0.0857086112982515 |
34 | 59.5 | 59.1849226660486 | 0.315077333951415 |
35 | 59.5 | 59.3508253526875 | 0.149174647312513 |
36 | 59.5 | 59.5046657042383 | -0.00466570423825630 |
37 | 59.7 | 59.2881563670693 | 0.411843632930747 |
38 | 59.7 | 59.172633539368 | 0.527366460632038 |
39 | 60.5 | 59.7135802195463 | 0.786419780453734 |
40 | 60.7 | 61.0441258657622 | -0.344125865762223 |
41 | 61.3 | 61.2337549785384 | 0.0662450214615546 |
42 | 61.4 | 61.981777863726 | -0.581777863725961 |
43 | 61.8 | 61.3294273944567 | 0.470572605543332 |
44 | 62.4 | 62.232762865013 | 0.167237134986983 |
45 | 62.4 | 63.2097862400401 | -0.809786240040147 |
46 | 62.9 | 62.5662952642739 | 0.333704735726137 |
47 | 63.2 | 63.0153570513097 | 0.184642948690289 |
48 | 63.4 | 63.4771987033318 | -0.077198703331824 |
49 | 63.9 | 63.4548072545878 | 0.445192745412186 |
50 | 64.5 | 63.6404568696413 | 0.859543130358681 |
51 | 65 | 64.8544848840001 | 0.145515115999856 |
52 | 65.4 | 65.7332485941135 | -0.333248594113471 |
53 | 66.3 | 66.1385904314292 | 0.161409568570846 |
54 | 67.7 | 67.1904502054334 | 0.509549794566581 |
55 | 69 | 68.0970975772327 | 0.902902422767326 |
56 | 70 | 69.9888353955661 | 0.0111646044338727 |
57 | 71.4 | 71.329479750624 | 0.07052024937596 |
58 | 72.5 | 72.3027234698917 | 0.197276530108297 |
59 | 73.4 | 73.3173246785926 | 0.0826753214073932 |
60 | 74.6 | 74.3535784996001 | 0.246421500399862 |
61 | 75.2 | 75.4102000489749 | -0.210200048974869 |
62 | 75.9 | 75.5608171342242 | 0.339182865775783 |
63 | 76.8 | 76.736330848968 | 0.0636691510320162 |
64 | 77.9 | 77.992844020204 | -0.0928440202039553 |
65 | 79.2 | 79.1628671025947 | 0.0371328974053284 |
66 | 80.5 | 80.5901160574392 | -0.0901160574392463 |
67 | 82.6 | 81.2685132958353 | 1.33148670416469 |
68 | 84.4 | 84.0210331656687 | 0.378966834331351 |
69 | 85.9 | 86.2614008780557 | -0.361400878055647 |
70 | 87.6 | 87.250365001704 | 0.349634998296025 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
71 | 88.8863167154654 | 87.480718230571 | 90.2919152003597 |
72 | 90.298242146459 | 88.0900541420414 | 92.5064301508767 |
73 | 91.5036153215507 | 88.5083630740932 | 94.4988675690082 |
74 | 92.3156843180334 | 88.5120429508068 | 96.1193256852599 |
75 | 93.5221149005942 | 88.8777414878298 | 98.1664883133585 |
76 | 95.0678363912434 | 89.5465374927368 | 100.589135289750 |
77 | 96.7066384695665 | 90.2710379304204 | 103.142239008713 |
78 | 98.462359163651 | 91.0750390828492 | 105.849679244453 |
79 | 99.6390533356885 | 91.2630741202454 | 108.015032551132 |
80 | 101.151015056405 | 91.7501534424879 | 110.551876670322 |
81 | 103.004461232828 | 92.5433108641415 | 113.465611601514 |
82 | 104.439694354084 | 92.883696477012 | 115.995692231156 |