| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.152389418657338 |
| beta | 0.0403497841851909 |
| gamma | 0.289315718348342 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 102.7 | 99.8541577664804 | 2.84584223351962 |
| 14 | 75.4 | 73.8640764756996 | 1.53592352430037 |
| 15 | 87.2 | 85.8149277185064 | 1.38507228149356 |
| 16 | 83.7 | 82.3683955652689 | 1.33160443473115 |
| 17 | 105.8 | 103.864666659206 | 1.93533334079383 |
| 18 | 111.5 | 109.259412450623 | 2.24058754937664 |
| 19 | 99.7 | 103.552937819575 | -3.85293781957476 |
| 20 | 111.2 | 111.592282860904 | -0.392282860904231 |
| 21 | 101.5 | 101.023680942444 | 0.476319057555585 |
| 22 | 110.9 | 101.566028598322 | 9.33397140167772 |
| 23 | 116.3 | 111.768503544399 | 4.5314964556013 |
| 24 | 164.9 | 161.579583081682 | 3.32041691831793 |
| 25 | 118.1 | 110.948829503986 | 7.15117049601382 |
| 26 | 83.7 | 82.4572231403725 | 1.24277685962748 |
| 27 | 84 | 95.7097150921302 | -11.7097150921302 |
| 28 | 107.2 | 89.9618009442243 | 17.2381990557757 |
| 29 | 113.7 | 116.677877146881 | -2.97787714688113 |
| 30 | 120.7 | 122.089478988153 | -1.38947898815346 |
| 31 | 111.2 | 113.617386421764 | -2.41738642176409 |
| 32 | 112.4 | 123.875711719721 | -11.4757117197207 |
| 33 | 112.5 | 110.887389959913 | 1.61261004008730 |
| 34 | 130.4 | 114.050028037679 | 16.3499719623206 |
| 35 | 130.7 | 125.036964849872 | 5.66303515012832 |
| 36 | 174.3 | 180.148818447016 | -5.84881844701641 |
| 37 | 132.2 | 124.053471661732 | 8.14652833826754 |
| 38 | 91.8 | 91.1656178112643 | 0.634382188735714 |
| 39 | 104.2 | 102.117804952949 | 2.08219504705104 |
| 40 | 104.8 | 105.946193936461 | -1.14619393646073 |
| 41 | 131.4 | 126.678095736289 | 4.72190426371127 |
| 42 | 141.2 | 134.348723530008 | 6.85127646999155 |
| 43 | 132.7 | 125.996073195731 | 6.70392680426896 |
| 44 | 135.7 | 136.595426964986 | -0.8954269649862 |
| 45 | 136.9 | 127.467068820498 | 9.4329311795017 |
| 46 | 151.2 | 136.598214189012 | 14.6017858109880 |
| 47 | 144 | 145.803742351963 | -1.80374235196251 |
| 48 | 201.5 | 204.568736053253 | -3.06873605325254 |
| 49 | 149.6 | 144.845913269667 | 4.75408673033252 |
| 50 | 108.7 | 104.550847946836 | 4.14915205316417 |
| 51 | 122.8 | 118.229514187950 | 4.57048581205039 |
| 52 | 126.7 | 122.229940517904 | 4.47005948209616 |
| 53 | 139.9 | 149.170215243516 | -9.27021524351608 |
| 54 | 162.5 | 156.493127134652 | 6.00687286534759 |
| 55 | 142.7 | 146.699640439811 | -3.99964043981112 |
| 56 | 151.6 | 154.930791018806 | -3.33079101880574 |
| 57 | 148.1 | 147.138413480555 | 0.961586519445149 |
| 58 | 159 | 157.295052453372 | 1.70494754662803 |
| 59 | 157.8 | 160.765946370615 | -2.9659463706154 |
| 60 | 226.7 | 225.115937538779 | 1.58406246122121 |
| 61 | 153.7 | 161.762691979094 | -8.06269197909418 |
| 62 | 122.3 | 115.408306488251 | 6.89169351174898 |
| 63 | 117.6 | 130.795358567693 | -13.1953585676933 |
| 64 | 166 | 132.127241269681 | 33.8727587303188 |
| 65 | 154.5 | 162.577769569462 | -8.07776956946228 |
| 66 | 183.9 | 175.16068090111 | 8.73931909889018 |
| 67 | 164.4 | 161.857668684000 | 2.54233131599972 |
| 68 | 173.3 | 172.337859915849 | 0.9621400841514 |
| 69 | 160.2 | 165.534649711094 | -5.33464971109444 |
| 70 | 166.4 | 176.118688701466 | -9.71868870146588 |
| 71 | 170.3 | 176.877063656989 | -6.57706365698888 |
| 72 | 238.4 | 248.438145850133 | -10.0381458501329 |
| 73 | 166.8 | 174.649207746374 | -7.84920774637393 |
| 74 | 122.5 | 128.014099723703 | -5.51409972370283 |
| 75 | 141.8 | 137.104677118695 | 4.69532288130526 |
| 76 | 140.5 | 153.763910712417 | -13.2639107124170 |
| 77 | 173.8 | 167.017464508736 | 6.78253549126444 |
| 78 | 188.8 | 186.655886766621 | 2.1441132333795 |
| 79 | 168 | 169.776545813552 | -1.77654581355222 |
| 80 | 187.4 | 179.275099179089 | 8.1249008209109 |
| 81 | 177.7 | 171.352571927643 | 6.34742807235699 |
| 82 | 183.8 | 182.956011553245 | 0.84398844675485 |
| 83 | 196.1 | 186.102252174173 | 9.99774782582668 |
| 84 | 264.6 | 264.70569713596 | -0.105697135960042 |
| 85 | 193.7 | 186.969350415060 | 6.7306495849397 |
| 86 | 141.3 | 138.837126842074 | 2.46287315792557 |
| 87 | 170.1 | 153.039422816513 | 17.0605771834873 |
| 88 | 163.7 | 168.661514288136 | -4.96151428813573 |
| 89 | 190.1 | 190.946882434901 | -0.846882434900749 |
| 90 | 230.7 | 210.648994398385 | 20.0510056016149 |
| 91 | 195.9 | 193.253189790938 | 2.64681020906161 |
| 92 | 210.3 | 207.908450492858 | 2.39154950714226 |
| 93 | 204.7 | 197.554378952217 | 7.14562104778307 |
| 94 | 210.3 | 209.504306414633 | 0.79569358536736 |
| 95 | 221.2 | 215.876172877374 | 5.32382712262589 |
| 96 | 288.2 | 302.03938884432 | -13.8393888443202 |
| 97 | 203.2 | 213.908324541505 | -10.7083245415054 |
| 98 | 162.4 | 156.129498200061 | 6.27050179993947 |
| 99 | 149.2 | 176.639134446847 | -27.439134446847 |
| 100 | 195.3 | 180.506300744108 | 14.793699255892 |
| 101 | 213.7 | 209.054707856130 | 4.6452921438696 |
| 102 | 227.9 | 237.096744304260 | -9.19674430425965 |
| 103 | 212.1 | 208.857531579631 | 3.24246842036882 |
| 104 | 226.8 | 224.443507990124 | 2.35649200987592 |
| 105 | 212.6 | 214.325818835862 | -1.72581883586176 |
| 106 | 220.9 | 223.761351406124 | -2.86135140612356 |
| 107 | 228.1 | 230.891271727254 | -2.79127172725376 |
| 108 | 311.6 | 315.294264877466 | -3.69426487746625 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 223.972630086684 | 217.537735902683 | 230.407524270686 |
| 110 | 168.283969247903 | 161.569803264235 | 174.998135231571 |
| 111 | 179.897323263878 | 172.595500523373 | 187.199146004382 |
| 112 | 199.781434347138 | 191.714430661169 | 207.848438033106 |
| 113 | 225.147416182435 | 216.111379710796 | 234.183452654075 |
| 114 | 250.501208821895 | 240.383009309149 | 260.619408334642 |
| 115 | 224.851043074167 | 214.913794158129 | 234.788291990204 |
| 116 | 240.616902366314 | 229.736149297275 | 251.497655435353 |
| 117 | 228.211020791761 | 217.233978052832 | 239.188063530690 |
| 118 | 238.125826675523 | 226.317468962718 | 249.934184388328 |
| 119 | 246.102538660923 | 233.500227836307 | 258.70484948554 |
| 120 | 336.558436973491 | 319.414273267573 | 353.702600679409 |
