Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.770591746725278 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.461098380461349 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 10.57 | 10.3245432692308 | 0.245456730769225 |
14 | 10.65 | 10.5915383936129 | 0.0584616063870946 |
15 | 10.57 | 10.5611032851350 | 0.00889671486503829 |
16 | 10.61 | 10.6174738803228 | -0.00747388032278806 |
17 | 10.63 | 10.6424794299699 | -0.0124794299698952 |
18 | 10.71 | 10.7252944110378 | -0.0152944110377877 |
19 | 10.72 | 10.6384401909276 | 0.0815598090724308 |
20 | 10.77 | 10.8474710334698 | -0.0774710334698039 |
21 | 10.79 | 10.8610373546076 | -0.0710373546075544 |
22 | 10.82 | 10.8920614155776 | -0.072061415577636 |
23 | 10.9 | 10.8847963436160 | 0.0152036563839708 |
24 | 10.83 | 10.8931103492188 | -0.0631103492187588 |
25 | 10.92 | 10.8645405859707 | 0.0554594140292899 |
26 | 10.91 | 10.9653450441676 | -0.0553450441676091 |
27 | 10.88 | 10.8419685070238 | 0.0380314929762253 |
28 | 10.87 | 10.9190584439067 | -0.0490584439067323 |
29 | 11 | 10.9114897861542 | 0.088510213845785 |
30 | 10.99 | 11.0718287851899 | -0.0818287851898809 |
31 | 11.03 | 10.9439489430035 | 0.0860510569964781 |
32 | 11.04 | 11.1396184575375 | -0.0996184575375167 |
33 | 10.99 | 11.1367987095738 | -0.146798709573817 |
34 | 10.9 | 11.1093333707481 | -0.209333370748146 |
35 | 11 | 11.0055185426698 | -0.00551854266980811 |
36 | 10.99 | 10.9895801548901 | 0.000419845109865591 |
37 | 10.92 | 11.0225085178251 | -0.102508517825051 |
38 | 10.98 | 10.989863320936 | -0.0098633209359953 |
39 | 11.15 | 10.9114119733419 | 0.238588026658118 |
40 | 11.19 | 11.1338367659865 | 0.056163234013523 |
41 | 11.33 | 11.2219030463492 | 0.108096953650760 |
42 | 11.38 | 11.3793170045941 | 0.000682995405927755 |
43 | 11.4 | 11.3327783513164 | 0.0672216486836206 |
44 | 11.45 | 11.4942979999135 | -0.0442979999134909 |
45 | 11.56 | 11.5291170236199 | 0.0308829763800649 |
46 | 11.61 | 11.6319568232053 | -0.0219568232052794 |
47 | 11.82 | 11.6940923026554 | 0.125907697344598 |
48 | 11.77 | 11.7800580520515 | -0.0100580520515177 |
49 | 11.85 | 11.7940244949363 | 0.0559755050636976 |
50 | 11.82 | 11.8933057660668 | -0.0733057660668237 |
51 | 11.92 | 11.7922473212736 | 0.127752678726393 |
52 | 11.86 | 11.9099664562096 | -0.0499664562096278 |
53 | 11.87 | 11.9217436103327 | -0.0517436103326947 |
54 | 11.94 | 11.9446235249471 | -0.00462352494707119 |
55 | 11.86 | 11.9010341545908 | -0.0410341545907951 |
56 | 11.92 | 11.9673362514188 | -0.047336251418848 |
57 | 11.83 | 12.0077666502759 | -0.17776665027594 |
58 | 11.91 | 11.9442333875419 | -0.0342333875419012 |
59 | 11.93 | 12.0125497234098 | -0.0825497234097785 |
60 | 11.99 | 11.9234974785793 | 0.0665025214206523 |
61 | 11.96 | 12.0034458822577 | -0.0434458822576662 |
62 | 12.12 | 12.0124385092214 | 0.107561490778640 |
63 | 11.85 | 12.0720227966671 | -0.222022796667057 |
64 | 12.01 | 11.9014087471202 | 0.108591252879819 |
65 | 12.1 | 12.0351811762857 | 0.0648188237143454 |
66 | 12.21 | 12.1528674925402 | 0.0571325074598317 |
67 | 12.31 | 12.1530153028904 | 0.156984697109559 |
68 | 12.31 | 12.3712424581563 | -0.0612424581562934 |
69 | 12.39 | 12.3871599507530 | 0.00284004924702863 |
70 | 12.35 | 12.4779836361752 | -0.127983636175212 |
71 | 12.41 | 12.4689459131018 | -0.0589459131018142 |
72 | 12.51 | 12.4138492824657 | 0.0961507175343037 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 12.5050140240763 | 12.3206318115002 | 12.6893962366524 |
74 | 12.5634592151365 | 12.3306835805265 | 12.7962348497465 |
75 | 12.5052941540665 | 12.2325814997549 | 12.7780068083781 |
76 | 12.5407413186747 | 12.2332354039750 | 12.8482472333744 |
77 | 12.5862039869377 | 12.2474598603039 | 12.9249481135716 |
78 | 12.6531283958089 | 12.2857930189630 | 13.0204637726548 |
79 | 12.6198127095004 | 12.2259561685668 | 13.0136692504339 |
80 | 12.6939847336360 | 12.2752835626444 | 13.1126859046275 |
81 | 12.7638737921907 | 12.3217218201909 | 13.2060257641905 |
82 | 12.8386704592186 | 12.3742503238918 | 13.3030905945454 |
83 | 12.9355586646453 | 12.4498903026424 | 13.4212270266482 |
84 | 12.9422913546931 | 12.4362662035354 | 13.4483165058508 |