Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.88008275007892 |
beta | 0.141425389189999 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 2.17 | 2.15729700854701 | 0.0127029914529908 |
14 | 2.18 | 2.18086489286783 | -0.000864892867825873 |
15 | 2.18 | 2.18280093311450 | -0.00280093311449692 |
16 | 2.18 | 2.18268447666828 | -0.00268447666828431 |
17 | 2.17 | 2.17233638533652 | -0.00233638533651703 |
18 | 2.17 | 2.17242050920447 | -0.00242050920447445 |
19 | 2.18 | 2.18671265923205 | -0.006712659232051 |
20 | 2.17 | 2.17722519724388 | -0.00722519724387816 |
21 | 2.18 | 2.17680403433087 | 0.00319596566913338 |
22 | 2.17 | 2.16678547967492 | 0.00321452032507885 |
23 | 2.17 | 2.16801668661782 | 0.00198331338218116 |
24 | 2.17 | 2.17924451807540 | -0.00924451807539528 |
25 | 2.17 | 2.16138027460692 | 0.00861972539308375 |
26 | 2.17 | 2.17757724228165 | -0.00757724228164536 |
27 | 2.17 | 2.1703879541396 | -0.000387954139601021 |
28 | 2.17 | 2.16972367711803 | 0.000276322881972657 |
29 | 2.17 | 2.15970618867926 | 0.0102938113207376 |
30 | 2.17 | 2.17015098561080 | -0.000150985610804621 |
31 | 2.18 | 2.18546342276160 | -0.00546342276159795 |
32 | 2.18 | 2.17670703900138 | 0.00329296099862342 |
33 | 2.18 | 2.18779466538795 | -0.00779466538794837 |
34 | 2.18 | 2.16773997303508 | 0.0122600269649209 |
35 | 2.18 | 2.17754449191288 | 0.00245550808712158 |
36 | 2.18 | 2.18866041584772 | -0.0086604158477157 |
37 | 2.18 | 2.17434409525091 | 0.00565590474908717 |
38 | 2.18 | 2.18651309827509 | -0.00651309827509117 |
39 | 2.18 | 2.18177765296916 | -0.00177765296915622 |
40 | 2.18 | 2.18045220232528 | -0.000452202325275319 |
41 | 2.18 | 2.17138636250353 | 0.00861363749647337 |
42 | 2.18 | 2.17928237293983 | 0.000717627060168091 |
43 | 2.18 | 2.19501273787818 | -0.0150127378781764 |
44 | 2.19 | 2.17800417219209 | 0.0119958278079140 |
45 | 2.19 | 2.19560661940866 | -0.00560661940866325 |
46 | 2.19 | 2.18034000510316 | 0.009659994896841 |
47 | 2.2 | 2.18681444692766 | 0.0131855530723439 |
48 | 2.2 | 2.20751013085986 | -0.00751013085985663 |
49 | 2.21 | 2.19753552498397 | 0.0124644750160252 |
50 | 2.21 | 2.21669739064261 | -0.00669739064260844 |
51 | 2.21 | 2.21480470700586 | -0.00480470700586277 |
52 | 2.2 | 2.21303446989610 | -0.0130344698961022 |
53 | 2.21 | 2.19447660609998 | 0.0155233939000228 |
54 | 2.2 | 2.20886119824393 | -0.00886119824392839 |
55 | 2.21 | 2.21443711580331 | -0.00443711580331074 |
56 | 2.21 | 2.21145312509673 | -0.00145312509673046 |
57 | 2.22 | 2.21491296530842 | 0.00508703469158345 |
58 | 2.22 | 2.21202380026744 | 0.00797619973256358 |
59 | 2.23 | 2.21836498128105 | 0.01163501871895 |
60 | 2.24 | 2.23594715132076 | 0.0040528486792426 |
61 | 2.24 | 2.24071627656621 | -0.00071627656620743 |
62 | 2.25 | 2.24651164835017 | 0.00348835164982564 |
63 | 2.25 | 2.25560950174062 | -0.00560950174061547 |
64 | 2.32 | 2.25384319403829 | 0.066156805961711 |
65 | 2.36 | 2.31996051741567 | 0.04003948258433 |
66 | 2.37 | 2.36760431453241 | 0.00239568546759283 |
67 | 2.37 | 2.39962599631797 | -0.0296259963179746 |
68 | 2.37 | 2.38770462924133 | -0.0177046292413348 |
69 | 2.38 | 2.38849640942027 | -0.00849640942026886 |
70 | 2.38 | 2.38315880313578 | -0.00315880313577521 |
71 | 2.41 | 2.38791273882031 | 0.0220872611796916 |
72 | 2.42 | 2.42285918656155 | -0.00285918656154527 |
73 | 2.43 | 2.42918760713903 | 0.00081239286096757 |
74 | 2.44 | 2.44523716810679 | -0.00523716810679264 |
75 | 2.44 | 2.45288344771435 | -0.0128834477143540 |
76 | 2.44 | 2.45973471980118 | -0.0197347198011837 |
77 | 2.43 | 2.44285113274165 | -0.0128511327416478 |
78 | 2.43 | 2.42857224267078 | 0.00142775732921807 |
79 | 2.43 | 2.44492121302189 | -0.0149212130218905 |
80 | 2.42 | 2.43822019328998 | -0.0182201932899790 |
81 | 2.42 | 2.43044763228951 | -0.0104476322895062 |
82 | 2.42 | 2.41457517193747 | 0.00542482806253375 |
83 | 2.42 | 2.42152153506199 | -0.00152153506199193 |
84 | 2.42 | 2.42137096865162 | -0.00137096865162478 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 2.41830685202448 | 2.3927560780378 | 2.44385762601116 |
86 | 2.42167230018505 | 2.38545577217708 | 2.45788882819302 |
87 | 2.42241895673412 | 2.37611779018755 | 2.46872012328069 |
88 | 2.43079885145166 | 2.37450006983472 | 2.48709763306861 |
89 | 2.42557692247115 | 2.35917565247378 | 2.49197819246852 |
90 | 2.41938791832089 | 2.34268881172194 | 2.49608702491984 |
91 | 2.42740965364956 | 2.34017059650561 | 2.51464871079351 |
92 | 2.43019194898317 | 2.33214575341954 | 2.5282381445468 |
93 | 2.43840154286245 | 2.32926772379222 | 2.54753536193269 |
94 | 2.43394243365998 | 2.3134340004082 | 2.55445086691176 |
95 | 2.43492149192300 | 2.30274902914536 | 2.56709395470063 |
96 | 2.43595741873769 | 2.29183160511311 | 2.58008323236226 |