Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[229])
223	102.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
224	99.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
225	111	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
226	113	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
227	108.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
228	105.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
229	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
230	102.8	99.9621	97.5582	102.3659	0.0103	0.0483	0.5526	0.0483
231	103.4	101.3332	97.8146	104.8518	0.1248	0.2069	0	0.3552
232	101.6	99.2659	94.8227	103.709	0.1516	0.0341	0	0.1139
233	98.6	95.4194	90.1473	100.6915	0.1185	0.0108	0	0.0072
234	98	94.702	88.6624	100.7415	0.1422	0.1029	3e-04	0.0089
235	93.8	91.9344	85.1728	98.6961	0.2943	0.0394	0.0018	0.0018
236	95.6	89.5895	81.959	97.2201	0.0613	0.1397	3e-04	7e-04
237	105.6	100.6081	92.1557	109.0605	0.1235	0.8772	0.2587	0.3734
238	106.8	102.5515	93.3158	111.7872	0.1836	0.2588	0.58	0.5466
239	103.6	97.9993	88.0135	107.9851	0.1358	0.042	0.4531	0.2162
240	101.2	95.0776	84.3709	105.7842	0.1312	0.0594	0.2963	0.1025
241	100.4	91.715	80.3138	103.1163	0.0677	0.0515	0.36	0.0385
242	103.2	89.6903	76.6512	102.7293	0.0211	0.0537	0.1872	0.0321
243	105.6	91.297	76.7134	105.8806	0.0273	0.0548	0.0273	0.0752
244	106.6	89.3355	73.2824	105.3887	0.0175	0.0235	0.0165	0.061
245	107.2	85.4863	68.027	102.9455	0.0074	0.0089	0.021	0.0319
246	107.4	84.7304	65.9207	103.5402	0.0091	0.0096	0.0431	0.036
247	104.8	81.9594	61.8488	102.0699	0.013	0.0066	0.0361	0.0254
248	107.2	79.6303	58.1051	101.1556	0.006	0.011	0.0159	0.0208
249	117.4	90.4436	67.5507	113.3365	0.0105	0.0757	0.0972	0.1612
250	119.4	92.3052	68.0883	116.5222	0.0142	0.0211	0.1236	0.2163
251	116.2	87.7746	62.2743	113.2749	0.0145	0.0075	0.0677	0.1371
252	112.8	84.9067	58.1611	111.6523	0.0205	0.0109	0.0496	0.1052
253	111.6	81.5618	53.6067	109.5169	0.0176	0.0143	0.0516	0.0759

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
230	0.0123	0.0284	0	8.0539	0	0
231	0.0177	0.0204	0.0244	4.2717	6.1628	2.4825
232	0.0228	0.0235	0.0241	5.4482	5.9246	2.434
233	0.0282	0.0333	0.0264	10.1161	6.9725	2.6405
234	0.0325	0.0348	0.0281	10.8771	7.7534	2.7845
235	0.0375	0.0203	0.0268	3.4804	7.0412	2.6535
236	0.0435	0.0671	0.0325	36.1257	11.1962	3.3461
237	0.0429	0.0496	0.0347	24.9192	12.9115	3.5933
238	0.0459	0.0414	0.0354	18.0496	13.4824	3.6718
239	0.052	0.0572	0.0376	31.368	15.271	3.9078
240	0.0575	0.0644	0.04	37.4841	17.2904	4.1582
241	0.0634	0.0947	0.0446	75.4285	22.1352	4.7048
242	0.0742	0.1506	0.0528	182.5125	34.4719	5.8713
243	0.0815	0.1567	0.0602	204.576	46.6222	6.828
244	0.0917	0.1933	0.069	298.0626	63.3849	7.9615
245	0.1042	0.254	0.0806	471.4859	88.8912	9.4282
246	0.1133	0.2675	0.0916	513.9096	113.8923	10.672
247	0.1252	0.2787	0.102	521.6952	136.548	11.6854
248	0.1379	0.3462	0.1148	760.0862	169.3658	13.0141
249	0.1291	0.298	0.124	726.6479	197.2299	14.0439
250	0.1339	0.2935	0.1321	734.1255	222.7964	14.9264
251	0.1482	0.3238	0.1408	808.0059	249.3968	15.7923
252	0.1607	0.3285	0.149	778.0356	272.3811	16.504
253	0.1749	0.3683	0.1581	902.293	298.6274	17.2808