| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.474740092278407 |
| beta | 0.0325150620496534 |
| gamma | 0.446603668717535 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 104.6 | 100.866372863248 | 3.73362713675211 |
| 14 | 104.5 | 102.59719311511 | 1.90280688489034 |
| 15 | 104.5 | 103.588221706064 | 0.911778293936095 |
| 16 | 105.6 | 105.28951035431 | 0.310489645690467 |
| 17 | 106.1 | 106.201802622241 | -0.101802622241209 |
| 18 | 107.6 | 107.96679177485 | -0.36679177484973 |
| 19 | 107.7 | 108.300318080196 | -0.600318080196118 |
| 20 | 108.3 | 107.792880120374 | 0.507119879625762 |
| 21 | 108.1 | 108.656515365481 | -0.556515365480948 |
| 22 | 108.1 | 109.214943165044 | -1.11494316504383 |
| 23 | 108 | 110.007719076527 | -2.00771907652695 |
| 24 | 108.2 | 109.062333575723 | -0.862333575722971 |
| 25 | 108.9 | 110.452409464733 | -1.55240946473307 |
| 26 | 109.8 | 109.189757248796 | 0.610242751203941 |
| 27 | 109.9 | 109.260223425464 | 0.639776574535659 |
| 28 | 109.8 | 110.612679245938 | -0.812679245938483 |
| 29 | 110.9 | 110.799053378796 | 0.100946621203605 |
| 30 | 111.1 | 112.505275379692 | -1.40527537969247 |
| 31 | 112.2 | 112.182121941232 | 0.0178780587679768 |
| 32 | 112.7 | 112.128606556148 | 0.571393443851562 |
| 33 | 114.6 | 112.674890391988 | 1.92510960801241 |
| 34 | 114.2 | 114.22040036075 | -0.0204003607499317 |
| 35 | 114.7 | 115.280218126212 | -0.580218126212301 |
| 36 | 114.7 | 115.260096277888 | -0.56009627788778 |
| 37 | 116 | 116.615325403069 | -0.615325403068979 |
| 38 | 116.3 | 116.302880177104 | -0.00288017710359156 |
| 39 | 116.4 | 116.077750328174 | 0.322249671825645 |
| 40 | 116.6 | 116.922390418307 | -0.322390418306753 |
| 41 | 118.1 | 117.547062078164 | 0.552937921835962 |
| 42 | 117.2 | 119.112722087452 | -1.91272208745173 |
| 43 | 108.3 | 118.872871602086 | -10.5728716020862 |
| 44 | 109.5 | 113.748227723022 | -4.24822772302151 |
| 45 | 110.5 | 112.076485986073 | -1.57648598607256 |
| 46 | 110.6 | 111.20169625179 | -0.601696251790017 |
| 47 | 111.2 | 111.543684499657 | -0.343684499657016 |
| 48 | 111.1 | 111.333684751072 | -0.233684751071877 |
| 49 | 111 | 112.529067115873 | -1.52906711587259 |
| 50 | 112.4 | 111.610545016562 | 0.789454983438475 |
| 51 | 112.5 | 111.534112729783 | 0.965887270216783 |
| 52 | 112.4 | 112.239301465297 | 0.160698534702945 |
| 53 | 111.8 | 113.012318708271 | -1.21231870827108 |
| 54 | 111.6 | 112.847956574348 | -1.247956574348 |
| 55 | 112.9 | 110.588852395158 | 2.31114760484206 |
| 56 | 112.8 | 112.959982607497 | -0.159982607497184 |
| 57 | 113.7 | 113.814506592089 | -0.114506592089342 |
| 58 | 113.8 | 113.843680265151 | -0.0436802651510817 |
| 59 | 114 | 114.500953966612 | -0.50095396661159 |
| 60 | 113.8 | 114.229516245773 | -0.429516245772732 |
| 61 | 113.9 | 115.012452048033 | -1.11245204803343 |
| 62 | 114.4 | 114.826427836268 | -0.426427836267976 |
| 63 | 114.4 | 114.186214766161 | 0.213785233839161 |
| 64 | 114.5 | 114.305916844033 | 0.194083155967107 |
| 65 | 113.8 | 114.733661853709 | -0.933661853708713 |
| 66 | 114.3 | 114.65849592189 | -0.358495921889542 |
| 67 | 115 | 113.635556271611 | 1.36444372838872 |
| 68 | 115.4 | 114.941946095987 | 0.4580539040129 |
| 69 | 115.3 | 116.074467869488 | -0.774467869487779 |
| 70 | 114.9 | 115.770681998778 | -0.870681998777584 |
| 71 | 114.3 | 115.879046297837 | -1.57904629783695 |
| 72 | 114.5 | 115.046881460982 | -0.546881460982434 |
| 73 | 115.5 | 115.546410948045 | -0.0464109480452777 |
| 74 | 115.8 | 115.976381221242 | -0.176381221242366 |
| 75 | 115.8 | 115.55789059433 | 0.242109405670462 |
| 76 | 116 | 115.639686923577 | 0.360313076422969 |
| 77 | 114.9 | 115.837633494259 | -0.937633494259103 |
| 78 | 114.1 | 115.851280272102 | -1.75128027210195 |
| 79 | 114.1 | 114.505577159086 | -0.405577159085951 |
| 80 | 113.5 | 114.665995808558 | -1.16599580855785 |
| 81 | 115 | 114.620270602632 | 0.379729397367583 |
| 82 | 114.7 | 114.741557862007 | -0.0415578620067407 |
| 83 | 115.4 | 114.989868547939 | 0.410131452061378 |
| 84 | 116.1 | 115.287377959417 | 0.812622040583463 |
| 85 | 116.6 | 116.513909206286 | 0.086090793713538 |
| 86 | 117.2 | 116.942528942391 | 0.257471057608697 |
| 87 | 118.2 | 116.801107596592 | 1.3988924034081 |
| 88 | 118 | 117.45059152539 | 0.549408474609749 |
| 89 | 117.7 | 117.427539735712 | 0.272460264288 |
| 90 | 118.5 | 117.837184761774 | 0.662815238226457 |
| 91 | 117.5 | 118.0028790488 | -0.502879048800438 |
| 92 | 118 | 117.986871727855 | 0.0131282721451811 |
| 93 | 117.7 | 118.929874482049 | -1.22987448204903 |
| 94 | 116.3 | 118.229694870561 | -1.92969487056135 |
| 95 | 115 | 117.699947640108 | -2.69994764010795 |
| 96 | 115.7 | 116.579745238994 | -0.879745238994346 |
| 97 | 113.6 | 116.770636252919 | -3.17063625291927 |
| 98 | 114.8 | 115.581314731849 | -0.781314731849307 |
| 99 | 114.9 | 115.086418005956 | -0.186418005955801 |
| 100 | 117.3 | 114.63146569634 | 2.6685343036597 |
| 101 | 117.3 | 115.429640475063 | 1.87035952493707 |
| 102 | 117.7 | 116.594268402684 | 1.10573159731594 |
| 103 | 120 | 116.608443142467 | 3.39155685753283 |
| 104 | 119.6 | 118.534104899392 | 1.06589510060813 |
| 105 | 119.2 | 119.673339350611 | -0.473339350611042 |
| 106 | 117.3 | 119.167857753131 | -1.86785775313113 |
| 107 | 117.5 | 118.487439828374 | -0.987439828373653 |
| 108 | 119 | 118.634317659878 | 0.365682340122206 |
| 109 | 112.5 | 118.925379233257 | -6.42537923325713 |
| 110 | 118.9 | 116.747474315413 | 2.15252568458691 |
| 111 | 118.4 | 117.826308648487 | 0.573691351513247 |
| 112 | 119.4 | 118.455033940191 | 0.944966059809346 |
| 113 | 120.6 | 118.274218117927 | 2.32578188207302 |
| 114 | 118.6 | 119.50920915679 | -0.90920915679034 |
| 115 | 122 | 119.105448026496 | 2.89455197350368 |
| 116 | 122.6 | 120.244350592489 | 2.35564940751112 |
| 117 | 120.6 | 121.649463464064 | -1.04946346406393 |
| 118 | 117.4 | 120.549107749505 | -3.14910774950516 |
| 119 | 116.4 | 119.45294793779 | -3.05294793778954 |
| 120 | 122.2 | 118.890769890221 | 3.30923010977887 |
| 121 | 121 | 118.985725367809 | 2.0142746321908 |
| 122 | 122.4 | 122.956510778649 | -0.556510778649113 |
| 123 | 124.9 | 122.466889544522 | 2.43311045547841 |
| 124 | 126.1 | 124.182153091154 | 1.91784690884626 |
| 125 | 124.5 | 124.918839042663 | -0.418839042662526 |
| 126 | 123.2 | 124.181328363591 | -0.98132836359052 |
| 127 | 126.4 | 124.72386759369 | 1.67613240630983 |
| 128 | 123.9 | 125.227352922982 | -1.32735292298221 |
| 129 | 116 | 124.097796518375 | -8.09779651837529 |
| 130 | 126.6 | 119.062555345207 | 7.53744465479305 |
| 131 | 125.9 | 123.131029348811 | 2.76897065118931 |
| 132 | 126.6 | 126.98381809783 | -0.383818097830272 |
| 133 | 116.7 | 125.123364145429 | -8.4233641454286 |
| 134 | 126.4 | 123.476407044305 | 2.92359295569538 |
| 135 | 129 | 125.334450134405 | 3.66554986559495 |
| 136 | 128.7 | 127.527159429278 | 1.17284057072166 |
| 137 | 128.4 | 127.36374354723 | 1.03625645277029 |
| 138 | 129.2 | 127.209265103767 | 1.99073489623281 |
| 139 | 133.3 | 129.856224917405 | 3.44377508259512 |
| 140 | 128.9 | 130.59166805435 | -1.69166805435049 |
| 141 | 132.7 | 127.792655590743 | 4.90734440925677 |
| 142 | 127.7 | 132.891717955207 | -5.19171795520701 |
| 143 | 131.8 | 129.894535160677 | 1.90546483932343 |
| 144 | 133.9 | 132.680453160381 | 1.21954683961874 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 129.802650577125 | 125.352785565395 | 134.252515588855 |
| 146 | 135.053840765468 | 130.098135759507 | 140.009545771429 |
| 147 | 135.890293728639 | 130.447767175451 | 141.332820281826 |
| 148 | 135.893796322636 | 129.977971400085 | 141.809621245186 |
| 149 | 135.259165491255 | 128.87981472758 | 141.638516254929 |
| 150 | 134.938262920505 | 128.102480112309 | 141.774045728701 |
| 151 | 137.051894143682 | 129.764792375331 | 144.338995912032 |
| 152 | 134.965487249412 | 127.230674435004 | 142.70030006382 |
| 153 | 134.561442255238 | 126.381357033234 | 142.741527477243 |
| 154 | 134.929821018225 | 126.305977128069 | 143.55366490838 |
| 155 | 136.110471645627 | 127.043640156897 | 145.177303134356 |
| 156 | 137.84970956157 | 128.340057621961 | 147.359361501179 |
