| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.957106985347542 |
| beta | 0.0213231419809285 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 27951 | 24203.1065705128 | 3747.89342948717 |
| 14 | 29781 | 29654.6202551849 | 126.379744815073 |
| 15 | 32914 | 32946.412119304 | -32.4121193039537 |
| 16 | 33488 | 33593.0200307428 | -105.020030742766 |
| 17 | 35652 | 35915.2410986994 | -263.241098699371 |
| 18 | 36488 | 36895.8636472486 | -407.86364724861 |
| 19 | 35387 | 34286.1180476207 | 1100.88195237935 |
| 20 | 35676 | 36417.4957808124 | -741.495780812395 |
| 21 | 34844 | 34291.6797450762 | 552.32025492382 |
| 22 | 32447 | 34813.0811183624 | -2366.0811183624 |
| 23 | 31068 | 32676.8052514774 | -1608.8052514774 |
| 24 | 29010 | 30941.1150593774 | -1931.11505937738 |
| 25 | 29812 | 30347.5787971139 | -535.578797113856 |
| 26 | 30951 | 31417.2352441558 | -466.23524415584 |
| 27 | 32974 | 33996.1472928091 | -1022.14729280914 |
| 28 | 32936 | 33533.2865375479 | -597.286537547945 |
| 29 | 34012 | 35208.4510334614 | -1196.45103346142 |
| 30 | 32946 | 35101.5248152055 | -2155.52481520546 |
| 31 | 31948 | 30659.9642363377 | 1288.03576366226 |
| 32 | 30599 | 32671.4316738823 | -2072.43167388231 |
| 33 | 27691 | 29080.0894447366 | -1389.08944473662 |
| 34 | 25073 | 27331.3798624235 | -2258.37986242351 |
| 35 | 23406 | 25046.0703511283 | -1640.07035112833 |
| 36 | 22248 | 22981.3960861217 | -733.396086121684 |
| 37 | 22896 | 23333.2722700384 | -437.272270038433 |
| 38 | 25317 | 24241.2077194554 | 1075.79228054459 |
| 39 | 26558 | 28044.8456366518 | -1486.84563665182 |
| 40 | 26471 | 26918.6438964958 | -447.643896495847 |
| 41 | 27543 | 28477.5879114903 | -934.58791149029 |
| 42 | 26198 | 28351.7548651247 | -2153.75486512472 |
| 43 | 24725 | 23831.2288487051 | 893.771151294939 |
| 44 | 25005 | 25084.7917687 | -79.791768699979 |
| 45 | 23462 | 23234.1860439709 | 227.813956029069 |
| 46 | 20780 | 22832.9944567301 | -2052.99445673013 |
| 47 | 19815 | 20612.2284668622 | -797.228466862165 |
| 48 | 19761 | 19251.7817676982 | 509.218232301817 |
| 49 | 21454 | 20689.6820866713 | 764.317913328661 |
| 50 | 23899 | 22721.0981287399 | 1177.90187126014 |
| 51 | 24939 | 26423.1608238929 | -1484.16082389287 |
| 52 | 23580 | 25254.77226647 | -1674.77226646998 |
| 53 | 24562 | 25503.9618002243 | -941.961800224315 |
| 54 | 24696 | 25204.2520675708 | -508.252067570837 |
| 55 | 23785 | 22308.4228014571 | 1476.57719854289 |
| 56 | 23812 | 24008.9855756807 | -196.985575680679 |
| 57 | 21917 | 21987.9663872987 | -70.9663872986566 |
| 58 | 19713 | 21125.4410414518 | -1412.44104145183 |
| 59 | 19282 | 19507.1512849844 | -225.151284984386 |
| 60 | 18788 | 18697.4908395737 | 90.5091604262525 |
| 61 | 21453 | 19684.2482889172 | 1768.75171108282 |
| 62 | 24482 | 22653.9183268633 | 1828.08167313667 |
| 63 | 27474 | 26836.521499678 | 637.478500321988 |
| 64 | 27264 | 27706.3251380426 | -442.325138042648 |
| 65 | 27349 | 29207.4155870462 | -1858.41558704625 |
| 66 | 30632 | 28071.3458877918 | 2560.65411220821 |
| 67 | 29429 | 28282.7365692393 | 1146.26343076072 |
| 68 | 30084 | 29673.4414532652 | 410.558546734756 |
| 69 | 26290 | 28329.7832894657 | -2039.7832894657 |
| 70 | 24379 | 25575.6399447567 | -1196.63994475665 |
| 71 | 23335 | 24269.5158481258 | -934.51584812579 |
| 72 | 21346 | 22834.6746514598 | -1488.67465145977 |
| 73 | 21106 | 22389.9577075278 | -1283.95770752776 |
| 74 | 24514 | 22386.0903534585 | 2127.90964654151 |
| 75 | 28353 | 26756.3987381583 | 1596.60126184173 |
| 76 | 30805 | 28469.2500454384 | 2335.74995456163 |
| 77 | 31348 | 32596.5922140575 | -1248.59221405754 |
| 78 | 34556 | 32274.2585747892 | 2281.74142521078 |
| 79 | 33855 | 32192.8629260748 | 1662.13707392518 |
| 80 | 34787 | 34091.1161300118 | 695.883869988247 |
| 81 | 32529 | 32966.6240006515 | -437.624000651507 |
| 82 | 29998 | 31865.9628984149 | -1867.96289841495 |
| 83 | 29257 | 29998.7329284109 | -741.732928410947 |
| 84 | 28155 | 28798.7492071101 | -643.749207110133 |
| 85 | 30466 | 29262.8540575671 | 1203.14594243286 |
| 86 | 35704 | 31927.8712040234 | 3776.12879597661 |
| 87 | 39327 | 38028.664906047 | 1298.33509395298 |
| 88 | 39351 | 39657.4133971206 | -306.413397120552 |
| 89 | 42234 | 41217.9221600109 | 1016.07783998913 |
| 90 | 43630 | 43376.5081197733 | 253.491880226655 |
| 91 | 43722 | 41447.8517953736 | 2274.14820462636 |
| 92 | 43121 | 44023.4776915287 | -902.477691528664 |
| 93 | 37985 | 41421.0008466682 | -3436.00084666823 |
| 94 | 37135 | 37428.4661847129 | -293.466184712888 |
| 95 | 34646 | 37187.8839885004 | -2541.88398850036 |
| 96 | 33026 | 34303.8060686305 | -1277.8060686305 |
| 97 | 35087 | 34261.9695397592 | 825.030460240792 |
| 98 | 38846 | 36689.4358989501 | 2156.56410104987 |
| 99 | 42013 | 41114.7831357914 | 898.216864208553 |
| 100 | 43908 | 42264.5076086407 | 1643.49239135929 |
| 101 | 42868 | 45760.5696005895 | -2892.5696005895 |
| 102 | 44423 | 44078.2415818128 | 344.758418187201 |
| 103 | 44167 | 42258.2611563071 | 1908.7388436929 |
| 104 | 43636 | 44275.0906888206 | -639.090688820557 |
| 105 | 44382 | 41748.6028286708 | 2633.3971713292 |
| 106 | 42142 | 43756.3615625213 | -1614.36156252131 |
| 107 | 43452 | 42184.5795956299 | 1267.4204043701 |
| 108 | 36912 | 43107.8557682616 | -6195.85576826164 |
| 109 | 42413 | 38455.9684959766 | 3957.03150402343 |
| 110 | 45344 | 44008.9799360331 | 1335.02006396691 |
| 111 | 44873 | 47648.0523369253 | -2775.05233692529 |
| 112 | 47510 | 45293.0713017396 | 2216.92869826043 |
| 113 | 49554 | 49134.1497955218 | 419.850204478171 |
| 114 | 47369 | 50819.3642618563 | -3450.36426185632 |
| 115 | 45998 | 45415.0199694621 | 582.980030537889 |
| 116 | 48140 | 46007.506330629 | 2132.49366937105 |
| 117 | 48441 | 46284.4859863651 | 2156.51401363491 |
| 118 | 44928 | 47654.2827542829 | -2726.28275428293 |
| 119 | 40454 | 45119.8543019029 | -4665.85430190287 |
| 120 | 38661 | 39901.1127273158 | -1240.11272731575 |
| 121 | 37246 | 40385.9124353145 | -3139.91243531455 |
| 122 | 36843 | 38847.1078568753 | -2004.10785687529 |
| 123 | 36424 | 38859.0220934941 | -2435.02209349412 |
| 124 | 37594 | 36795.584901452 | 798.415098547994 |
| 125 | 38144 | 38924.9396374968 | -780.939637496784 |
| 126 | 38737 | 38993.3858705737 | -256.385870573657 |
| 127 | 34560 | 36582.7285794763 | -2022.72857947634 |
| 128 | 36080 | 34458.2633380612 | 1621.73666193877 |
| 129 | 33508 | 33947.5273990168 | -439.527399016821 |
| 130 | 35462 | 32270.3187389711 | 3191.68126102889 |
| 131 | 33374 | 35084.7196646531 | -1710.71966465309 |
| 132 | 32110 | 32669.5071767581 | -559.507176758118 |
| 133 | 35533 | 33566.3299314641 | 1966.67006853594 |
| 134 | 35532 | 36910.1059105796 | -1378.10591057956 |
| 135 | 37903 | 37461.7802399509 | 441.219760049113 |
| 136 | 36763 | 38307.698416921 | -1544.69841692103 |
| 137 | 40399 | 38096.6723864801 | 2302.32761351993 |
| 138 | 44164 | 41171.5327145295 | 2992.46728547053 |
| 139 | 44496 | 41893.813799733 | 2602.18620026704 |
| 140 | 43110 | 44545.7986950497 | -1435.79869504966 |
| 141 | 43880 | 41151.4504753467 | 2728.54952465331 |
| 142 | 43930 | 42858.0296394016 | 1071.97036059837 |
| 143 | 44327 | 43585.9473051438 | 741.052694856175 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | 43769.3449128364 | 40271.3686085046 | 47267.3212171682 |
| 145 | 45524.0726400356 | 40632.4850422983 | 50415.6602377729 |
| 146 | 47015.9719798341 | 41006.5861541469 | 53025.3578055213 |
| 147 | 49166.7071249071 | 42180.9145999255 | 56152.4996498887 |
| 148 | 49698.1737835982 | 41823.9398858644 | 57572.407681332 |
| 149 | 51355.1499768492 | 42652.8688118967 | 60057.4311418018 |
| 150 | 52433.601551324 | 42947.3006998531 | 61919.9024027949 |
| 151 | 50391.522025894 | 40154.6098333462 | 60628.4342184417 |
| 152 | 50443.119260207 | 39481.6735387997 | 61404.5649816143 |
| 153 | 48694.2922620933 | 37029.0936058157 | 60359.490918371 |
| 154 | 47755.3030739239 | 35403.1669813833 | 60107.4391664646 |
| 155 | 47458.1601579423 | 34432.8500262197 | 60483.4702896649 |
