| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.36119285707601 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.448850016394393 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 54874 | 51792.1327457265 | 3081.86725427349 |
| 14 | 60051 | 58388.5045235874 | 1662.49547641262 |
| 15 | 71622 | 70723.167687083 | 898.832312917031 |
| 16 | 66526 | 66242.2928373786 | 283.707162621446 |
| 17 | 50140 | 50091.0725105129 | 48.927489487105 |
| 18 | 55973 | 56050.3014427245 | -77.301442724478 |
| 19 | 40393 | 46696.1873862649 | -6303.1873862649 |
| 20 | 38483 | 37592.0777980286 | 890.922201971422 |
| 21 | 42879 | 43548.3875394186 | -669.387539418589 |
| 22 | 47875 | 49009.7495473924 | -1134.7495473924 |
| 23 | 40578 | 35921.6511221315 | 4656.34887786847 |
| 24 | 31027 | 32569.4227493657 | -1542.42274936569 |
| 25 | 62027 | 56876.6934815102 | 5150.30651848981 |
| 26 | 56493 | 63813.1962690184 | -7320.19626901836 |
| 27 | 65566 | 72684.411269624 | -7118.41126962406 |
| 28 | 62653 | 65131.3913334055 | -2478.39133340553 |
| 29 | 53470 | 47915.2027130526 | 5554.79728694745 |
| 30 | 59600 | 55826.9190435172 | 3773.08095648275 |
| 31 | 42542 | 46078.3960676396 | -3536.39606763959 |
| 32 | 42018 | 40036.3886865473 | 1981.61131345273 |
| 33 | 44038 | 45939.262121925 | -1901.26212192497 |
| 34 | 44988 | 50822.2472344387 | -5834.24723443866 |
| 35 | 43309 | 37697.1973368701 | 5611.80266312993 |
| 36 | 26843 | 32912.7069574455 | -6069.70695744554 |
| 37 | 69770 | 57503.7518419024 | 12266.2481580976 |
| 38 | 64886 | 63434.8321581687 | 1451.16784183127 |
| 39 | 79354 | 75532.0587521123 | 3821.94124788773 |
| 40 | 63025 | 73261.0424035012 | -10236.0424035012 |
| 41 | 54003 | 55546.1905280719 | -1543.19052807194 |
| 42 | 55926 | 60383.2953372114 | -4457.29533721144 |
| 43 | 45629 | 45566.1831441851 | 62.8168558148973 |
| 44 | 40361 | 42406.3562744074 | -2045.35627440737 |
| 45 | 43039 | 45741.386930572 | -2702.38693057196 |
| 46 | 44570 | 49207.3121829173 | -4637.31218291735 |
| 47 | 43269 | 39796.4964997913 | 3472.50350020872 |
| 48 | 25563 | 30889.8836841943 | -5326.88368419428 |
| 49 | 68707 | 61006.6737061482 | 7700.32629385182 |
| 50 | 60223 | 62187.5828581605 | -1964.58285816047 |
| 51 | 74283 | 73730.8332292288 | 552.166770771175 |
| 52 | 61232 | 66247.9717722068 | -5015.97177220677 |
| 53 | 61531 | 52911.0613407033 | 8619.93865929668 |
| 54 | 65305 | 60583.4586356661 | 4721.54136433386 |
| 55 | 51699 | 50377.7221209699 | 1321.27787903014 |
| 56 | 44599 | 47067.9688607218 | -2468.96886072178 |
| 57 | 35221 | 50061.6041985938 | -14840.6041985938 |
| 58 | 55066 | 48588.4936740118 | 6477.50632598816 |
| 59 | 45335 | 45517.5871132976 | -182.587113297566 |
| 60 | 28702 | 32767.7457380389 | -4065.74573803887 |
| 61 | 69517 | 67075.3234122153 | 2441.67658778466 |
| 62 | 69240 | 63585.6400153568 | 5654.35998464317 |
| 63 | 71525 | 78602.4222087487 | -7077.42220874867 |
| 64 | 77740 | 66767.263159939 | 10972.7368400611 |
| 65 | 62107 | 63115.165534094 | -1008.165534094 |
| 66 | 65450 | 66192.1783819468 | -742.17838194684 |
| 67 | 51493 | 53038.0325447049 | -1545.03254470488 |
| 68 | 43067 | 47606.2163048819 | -4539.21630488187 |
| 69 | 49172 | 46304.7914157864 | 2867.20858421356 |
| 70 | 54483 | 57340.1282951227 | -2857.12829512273 |
| 71 | 38158 | 48987.9791409488 | -10829.9791409488 |
| 72 | 27898 | 31278.963196067 | -3380.96319606697 |
| 73 | 58648 | 67699.7435038536 | -9051.7435038536 |
| 74 | 56000 | 60979.8870681402 | -4979.88706814021 |
| 75 | 62381 | 68505.0891454843 | -6124.08914548432 |
| 76 | 59849 | 62189.763961548 | -2340.76396154797 |
| 77 | 48345 | 50293.6576200511 | -1948.65762005108 |
| 78 | 55376 | 53107.2375671616 | 2268.76243283836 |
| 79 | 45400 | 40810.4207979573 | 4589.57920204272 |
| 80 | 38389 | 36735.864394553 | 1653.13560544699 |
| 81 | 44098 | 39794.7065980526 | 4303.29340194743 |
| 82 | 48290 | 49707.4159759791 | -1417.41597597911 |
| 83 | 41267 | 39589.2362940043 | 1677.76370599568 |
| 84 | 31238 | 28533.7736113179 | 2704.22638868213 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 65526.5060519364 | 55673.320674255 | 75379.6914296179 |
| 86 | 63243.5923951632 | 52767.3796938595 | 73719.805096467 |
| 87 | 72239.4186547305 | 61175.205938095 | 83303.6313713661 |
| 88 | 69220.858246614 | 57598.3553528754 | 80843.3611403527 |
| 89 | 58282.6472291345 | 46127.4695672916 | 70437.8248909775 |
| 90 | 63009.3233224235 | 50343.8539482957 | 75674.7926965513 |
| 91 | 50558.4903032156 | 37402.5074458624 | 63714.4731605688 |
| 92 | 43984.2483236775 | 30355.3945413899 | 57613.102105965 |
| 93 | 47205.8657804025 | 33120.0067048979 | 61291.7248559072 |
| 94 | 53923.9653483011 | 39395.4693362914 | 68452.4613603107 |
| 95 | 45205.2227187132 | 30247.1825112869 | 60163.2629261396 |
| 96 | 33838.0799740023 | 18462.4909666509 | 49213.6689813537 |
