| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.602510164692305 |
| beta | 0.0371124448631074 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 36066 | 35295.1672008547 | 770.832799145297 |
| 14 | 35724 | 35433.4680543628 | 290.531945637187 |
| 15 | 35727 | 35657.1292374863 | 69.8707625137322 |
| 16 | 36281 | 36314.6105020958 | -33.610502095813 |
| 17 | 36017 | 36089.2000344138 | -72.2000344138287 |
| 18 | 35780 | 35866.2578766791 | -86.2578766790903 |
| 19 | 36003 | 35930.9169460292 | 72.083053970804 |
| 20 | 36285 | 36457.0481910739 | -172.048191073925 |
| 21 | 36419 | 36831.9491076652 | -412.949107665161 |
| 22 | 36413 | 36537.5126397425 | -124.512639742468 |
| 23 | 36663 | 36670.7862284662 | -7.78622846624057 |
| 24 | 37451 | 37496.0062282017 | -45.0062282016879 |
| 25 | 37063 | 37307.1509680786 | -244.150968078568 |
| 26 | 36613 | 36625.8700334212 | -12.8700334211535 |
| 27 | 36564 | 36555.1045606204 | 8.89543937959388 |
| 28 | 37064 | 37109.4380738528 | -45.438073852798 |
| 29 | 36817 | 36836.0212066517 | -19.0212066516833 |
| 30 | 36621 | 36615.1798751567 | 5.82012484326697 |
| 31 | 36798 | 36775.9625998759 | 22.037400124078 |
| 32 | 36967 | 37151.488902342 | -184.48890234196 |
| 33 | 36926 | 37399.4480771431 | -473.448077143097 |
| 34 | 36975 | 37158.1677133686 | -183.167713368573 |
| 35 | 37324 | 37276.1438059755 | 47.856194024549 |
| 36 | 38159 | 38094.9837786023 | 64.01622139768 |
| 37 | 37776 | 37869.9848721452 | -93.9848721451708 |
| 38 | 37465 | 37351.7973945642 | 113.20260543577 |
| 39 | 37451 | 37349.1476226548 | 101.852377345167 |
| 40 | 37944 | 37923.474292211 | 20.5257077889837 |
| 41 | 37737 | 37687.3593770935 | 49.6406229065105 |
| 42 | 37603 | 37506.3546609891 | 96.6453390109018 |
| 43 | 37813 | 37718.9305995045 | 94.069400495464 |
| 44 | 37960 | 38047.9993859604 | -87.9993859604074 |
| 45 | 37934 | 38233.6282838202 | -299.628283820173 |
| 46 | 37975 | 38210.7384690545 | -235.738469054479 |
| 47 | 38241 | 38385.9731496463 | -144.97314964627 |
| 48 | 39176 | 39087.8464923348 | 88.1535076651999 |
| 49 | 39137 | 38807.9180054195 | 329.08199458052 |
| 50 | 38797 | 38629.7788592647 | 167.221140735324 |
| 51 | 38730 | 38659.1634194238 | 70.8365805761932 |
| 52 | 39031 | 39185.7819148269 | -154.781914826948 |
| 53 | 38851 | 38855.000953049 | -4.00095304895513 |
| 54 | 38727 | 38658.5467749643 | 68.453225035737 |
| 55 | 39291 | 38850.6686114931 | 440.331388506878 |
| 56 | 39407 | 39321.2917506113 | 85.7082493886992 |
| 57 | 39326 | 39536.6436172188 | -210.643617218811 |
| 58 | 39326 | 39603.9359618375 | -277.935961837466 |
| 59 | 39617 | 39800.0533949491 | -183.0533949491 |
| 60 | 40458 | 40581.0258602769 | -123.025860276895 |
| 61 | 40425 | 40274.2815603651 | 150.718439634897 |
| 62 | 40092 | 39925.0054727709 | 166.994527229101 |
| 63 | 39939 | 39916.6035033892 | 22.396496610796 |
| 64 | 40174 | 40323.934037023 | -149.934037023035 |
| 65 | 40065 | 40055.6950119212 | 9.30498807878757 |
| 66 | 39922 | 39896.0422684519 | 25.9577315481365 |
| 67 | 40107 | 40209.412372869 | -102.412372868952 |
| 68 | 40163 | 40198.966140622 | -35.9661406220039 |
| 69 | 40116 | 40207.3887352263 | -91.388735226341 |
| 70 | 40118 | 40306.6295885941 | -188.629588594107 |
| 71 | 40416 | 40583.1110747281 | -167.111074728113 |
| 72 | 41215 | 41386.7469646424 | -171.746964642378 |
| 73 | 40852 | 41147.5665261802 | -295.56652618017 |
| 74 | 40497 | 40513.9978242041 | -16.9978242040597 |
| 75 | 40430 | 40311.2771959534 | 118.7228040466 |
| 76 | 40766 | 40684.3144404473 | 81.6855595526868 |
| 77 | 40626 | 40600.2723964253 | 25.727603574669 |
| 78 | 40442 | 40438.8488878719 | 3.15111212810734 |
| 79 | 40590 | 40668.6571362223 | -78.6571362222749 |
| 80 | 40673 | 40680.6717349964 | -7.67173499637283 |
| 81 | 40660 | 40666.4811167579 | -6.48111675789551 |
| 82 | 40736 | 40762.4950481267 | -26.4950481266642 |
| 83 | 41082 | 41133.1106887791 | -51.1106887791248 |
| 84 | 41873 | 41995.2821676848 | -122.282167684782 |
| 85 | 41507 | 41728.2807153165 | -221.280715316527 |
| 86 | 41104 | 41243.452234384 | -139.452234383964 |
| 87 | 40963 | 41011.4150297169 | -48.4150297168817 |
| 88 | 41227 | 41255.806676038 | -28.8066760380098 |
| 89 | 41063 | 41067.2571165608 | -4.25711656078784 |
| 90 | 40873 | 40862.4310046963 | 10.5689953037145 |
| 91 | 41016 | 41047.9939456257 | -31.9939456257416 |
| 92 | 41433 | 41101.1862743413 | 331.813725658692 |
| 93 | 41345 | 41284.450170577 | 60.5498294229983 |
| 94 | 41375 | 41406.8322629706 | -31.8322629706017 |
| 95 | 41597 | 41758.265035904 | -161.265035903947 |
| 96 | 42225 | 42517.1316668999 | -292.131666899943 |
| 97 | 41937 | 42095.999512736 | -158.999512736038 |
| 98 | 41642 | 41670.1709898121 | -28.1709898121262 |
| 99 | 41551 | 41532.8054588135 | 18.1945411864654 |
| 100 | 41866 | 41818.0508307827 | 47.9491692173106 |
| 101 | 41744 | 41680.1486181561 | 63.8513818439023 |
| 102 | 41615 | 41518.4177157872 | 96.5822842128036 |
| 103 | 41764 | 41736.9754302655 | 27.0245697344581 |
| 104 | 41828 | 41969.7457857018 | -141.74578570178 |
| 105 | 41786 | 41748.68045451 | 37.319545489976 |
| 106 | 41852 | 41808.6455115341 | 43.3544884658622 |
| 107 | 42183 | 42143.9124671551 | 39.0875328449256 |
| 108 | 42937 | 42965.9370227472 | -28.9370227472318 |
| 109 | 42635 | 42756.6478128254 | -121.64781282538 |
| 110 | 42292 | 42406.5091019762 | -114.509101976219 |
| 111 | 42202 | 42234.8052590862 | -32.8052590861553 |
| 112 | 42577 | 42499.260958774 | 77.7390412260283 |
| 113 | 42600 | 42384.4055984648 | 215.594401535214 |
| 114 | 42433 | 42329.2818614225 | 103.718138577467 |
| 115 | 42584 | 42526.8203309318 | 57.1796690681731 |
| 116 | 42660 | 42713.6790410377 | -53.6790410376925 |
| 117 | 42659 | 42621.824796749 | 37.1752032510485 |
| 118 | 42712 | 42689.0718160806 | 22.9281839194082 |
| 119 | 43039 | 43014.8490006407 | 24.1509993592845 |
| 120 | 43664 | 43805.0144398978 | -141.014439897801 |
| 121 | 43397 | 43493.0190954196 | -96.0190954196078 |
| 122 | 43110 | 43163.4058316499 | -53.4058316499068 |
| 123 | 43005 | 43064.6064039468 | -59.606403946811 |
| 124 | 43159 | 43359.8677134641 | -200.867713464097 |
| 125 | 43066 | 43128.7285710375 | -62.7285710374854 |
| 126 | 42977 | 42852.0027759918 | 124.99722400817 |
| 127 | 43139 | 43034.89939522 | 104.100604779953 |
| 128 | 43226 | 43198.0482700996 | 27.9517299003855 |
| 129 | 43242 | 43185.4013832241 | 56.5986167758747 |
| 130 | 43348 | 43253.032830513 | 94.967169486983 |
| 131 | 43605 | 43618.6557988437 | -13.6557988436762 |
| 132 | 44225 | 44315.5007969972 | -90.5007969971775 |
| 133 | 43983 | 44048.0652668853 | -65.0652668852563 |
| 134 | 43754 | 43750.9721245986 | 3.02787540143618 |
| 135 | 43632 | 43681.903593497 | -49.9035934970161 |
| 136 | 43868 | 43925.2716501225 | -57.2716501224713 |
| 137 | 43864 | 43837.1810380453 | 26.8189619546974 |
| 138 | 43808 | 43692.6515136386 | 115.348486361363 |
| 139 | 43954 | 43864.8366012483 | 89.1633987517489 |
| 140 | 44032 | 43991.791373288 | 40.2086267119812 |
| 141 | 44090 | 44001.2644289109 | 88.7355710890988 |
| 142 | 44210 | 44107.5766211621 | 102.423378837906 |
| 143 | 44435 | 44438.7490247558 | -3.74902475576528 |
| 144 | 44919 | 45115.4728901307 | -196.472890130666 |
| 145 | 44785 | 44796.3838999384 | -11.3838999383515 |
| 146 | 44616 | 44561.9864462661 | 54.0135537339302 |
| 147 | 44496 | 44507.0234428669 | -11.0234428668991 |
| 148 | 44600 | 44776.1837014241 | -176.183701424074 |
| 149 | 44463 | 44652.5088290468 | -189.508829046819 |
| 150 | 44232 | 44410.6282688313 | -178.628268831308 |
| 151 | 44248 | 44386.5066341314 | -138.506634131394 |
| 152 | 44282 | 44342.9635956367 | -60.9635956366619 |
| 153 | 44311 | 44294.6407746361 | 16.3592253638635 |
| 154 | 44362 | 44345.0403156052 | 16.9596843948311 |
| 155 | 44617 | 44562.8605699735 | 54.1394300264947 |
| 156 | 45022 | 45179.4945089174 | -157.4945089174 |
| 157 | 44882 | 44939.970431466 | -57.9704314660339 |
| 158 | 44594 | 44684.9662877542 | -90.9662877542287 |
| 159 | 44502 | 44495.0254168624 | 6.97458313759853 |
| 160 | 44752 | 44688.0080979206 | 63.9919020793532 |
| 161 | 44690 | 44687.7432947115 | 2.25670528854971 |
| 162 | 44533 | 44554.0147570414 | -21.014757041441 |
| 163 | 44604 | 44632.6155707137 | -28.6155707136786 |
| 164 | 44646 | 44680.3735808835 | -34.3735808834826 |
| 165 | 44652 | 44673.6691151378 | -21.6691151378036 |
| 166 | 44718 | 44695.4070989998 | 22.5929010002219 |
| 167 | 44928 | 44925.5381850765 | 2.46181492349569 |
| 168 | 45285 | 45419.8961427873 | -134.896142787285 |
| 169 | 45183 | 45227.0355800765 | -44.0355800765465 |
| 170 | 44964 | 44961.1113607651 | 2.88863923487952 |
| 171 | 44875 | 44862.5477451598 | 12.4522548402383 |
| 172 | 45071 | 45077.5152751062 | -6.51527510621236 |
| 173 | 44985 | 45004.6741744789 | -19.6741744789106 |
| 174 | 44854 | 44842.4356076402 | 11.5643923597891 |
| 175 | 44925 | 44932.326652501 | -7.32665250098216 |
| 176 | 44970 | 44985.7809439897 | -15.7809439896664 |
| 177 | 45011 | 44990.9026121587 | 20.097387841306 |
| 178 | 45107 | 45051.906950437 | 55.0930495630382 |
| 179 | 45306 | 45290.8524382534 | 15.1475617466494 |
| 180 | 45773 | 45735.7735905798 | 37.2264094201673 |
| 181 | 45625 | 45684.1018283413 | -59.1018283412559 |
| 182 | 45391 | 45428.7821138675 | -37.7821138675208 |
| 183 | 45325 | 45309.6361449897 | 15.3638550103205 |
| 184 | 45430 | 45519.0043973653 | -89.00439736533 |
| 185 | 45321 | 45389.5735790903 | -68.5735790902909 |
| 186 | 45238 | 45207.5375611859 | 30.4624388140874 |
| 187 | 45246 | 45298.9763694249 | -52.9763694248904 |
| 188 | 45281 | 45318.2154879136 | -37.2154879136069 |
| 189 | 45297 | 45320.8543482926 | -23.8543482925816 |
| 190 | 45349 | 45364.4754008961 | -15.4754008961099 |
| 191 | 45536 | 45538.634462242 | -2.63446224204381 |
| 192 | 45903 | 45974.8299723284 | -71.8299723283635 |
| 193 | 45716 | 45809.9346577496 | -93.9346577495526 |
| 194 | 45419 | 45532.096816993 | -113.096816993013 |
| 195 | 45237 | 45377.0085101999 | -140.008510199863 |
| 196 | 45349 | 45436.1143443928 | -87.1143443927504 |
| 197 | 45260 | 45300.8219382199 | -40.8219382199168 |
| 198 | 45139 | 45160.3715138983 | -21.3715138982807 |
| 199 | 45154 | 45171.7538584391 | -17.7538584391077 |
| 200 | 45186 | 45203.6073832205 | -17.6073832204784 |
| 201 | 45262 | 45208.9373878576 | 53.0626121423556 |
| 202 | 45227 | 45289.5182933928 | -62.5182933928081 |
| 203 | 45313 | 45426.6718239449 | -113.671823944853 |
| 204 | 45564 | 45752.2129657218 | -188.212965721832 |
| 205 | 45392 | 45489.5582130413 | -97.5582130413313 |
| 206 | 45114 | 45182.9882410881 | -68.9882410881255 |
| 207 | 44996 | 45025.8328316848 | -29.8328316847546 |
| 208 | 45159 | 45156.8632789587 | 2.13672104132274 |
| 209 | 45107 | 45080.2597710723 | 26.7402289276506 |
| 210 | 44963 | 44976.271780715 | -13.2717807150329 |
| 211 | 45005 | 44982.1775887502 | 22.8224112497919 |
| 212 | 45024 | 45027.6495722837 | -3.64957228366984 |
| 213 | 45025 | 45058.9046314937 | -33.9046314936859 |
| 214 | 45053 | 45028.6247384802 | 24.3752615198391 |
| 215 | 45143 | 45187.2225897415 | -44.222589741461 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 216 | 45515.9542622513 | 45265.1853736445 | 45766.723150858 |
| 217 | 45397.9186442185 | 45102.2171954396 | 45693.6200929973 |
| 218 | 45158.8507903224 | 44821.5342876041 | 45496.1672930406 |
| 219 | 45057.7340244648 | 44680.9354724368 | 45434.5325764928 |
| 220 | 45219.0223588991 | 44804.189369671 | 45633.8553481271 |
| 221 | 45150.4390513263 | 44698.5838885148 | 45602.2942141377 |
| 222 | 45013.3654580343 | 44525.2055752482 | 45501.5253408205 |
| 223 | 45040.8415125124 | 44516.8851758888 | 45564.7978491361 |
| 224 | 45060.7568827634 | 44501.3585564635 | 45620.1552090632 |
| 225 | 45080.9828404399 | 44486.3807127716 | 45675.5849681083 |
| 226 | 45093.8526989383 | 44464.1950652206 | 45723.5103326559 |
| 227 | 45209.508414009 | 44544.8727930786 | 45874.1440349394 |
