| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1856 | 1856 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1834 | 1849.00401376043 | -0.866462741645097 | -2.24138791113759 | -0.0855674077443585 |
| 3 | 2095 | 1933.00006849901 | 7.91207399924354 | 30.2739093958164 | 0.920814634266865 |
| 4 | 2164 | 2016.71277158759 | 14.2011147018338 | 25.0821306891067 | 0.845563690284613 |
| 5 | 2368 | 2140.53204876574 | 21.7948757506358 | 43.1166868924572 | 1.26237592739167 |
| 6 | 2072 | 2130.16637510345 | 19.8617121680156 | -2.23569239351824 | -0.380016029024471 |
| 7 | 2521 | 2261.36280714832 | 25.8561990768036 | 61.1387153721757 | 1.34112305919828 |
| 8 | 1823 | 2136.29664900874 | 18.3915213148299 | -39.3565272526978 | -1.84344776585951 |
| 9 | 1947 | 2077.48482602115 | 14.8150161536194 | 11.4390488237704 | -0.952346721962866 |
| 10 | 2226 | 2126.37855059767 | 16.3153634926086 | 36.4100995634055 | 0.423300385229205 |
| 11 | 1754 | 2017.47077871442 | 11.0194791721335 | -29.7247098481464 | -1.56298140119547 |
| 12 | 1786 | 1944.12637724845 | 7.56517138428682 | 0.0591258798614192 | -1.05657203296087 |
| 13 | 2072 | 1990.96328391624 | 4.2020392547632 | -16.1605083059300 | 0.710194717180928 |
| 14 | 1846 | 1954.14102715993 | 2.44566442592975 | -44.0540259228977 | -0.453025048240505 |
| 15 | 2137 | 2009.04877432318 | 4.91468790750323 | 46.4590758796867 | 0.582652112027052 |
| 16 | 2466 | 2159.94999800892 | 11.1400832445387 | 64.464013730499 | 1.70827586330405 |
| 17 | 2154 | 2163.91736062963 | 10.8630840591197 | 2.46440825733971 | -0.086840065289077 |
| 18 | 2289 | 2218.10365431485 | 12.4131555817080 | -5.74891867167232 | 0.534950655984567 |
| 19 | 2628 | 2330.63375702498 | 15.8043479617601 | 117.697731107628 | 1.25039984990017 |
| 20 | 2074 | 2281.12892131806 | 13.6747461120318 | -88.9364967324584 | -0.821120371188022 |
| 21 | 2798 | 2439.38171610098 | 18.2685801572995 | 95.6644109911254 | 1.82484521325883 |
| 22 | 2194 | 2371.67665578113 | 15.5845803948641 | -20.8502603530585 | -1.08759196202597 |
| 23 | 2442 | 2402.09766035342 | 16.0403872045896 | 12.7851323731704 | 0.187946057405880 |
| 24 | 2565 | 2464.69633364254 | 17.3557492846899 | 14.7035553913065 | 0.591757011560477 |
| 25 | 2063 | 2402.01887979372 | 18.2222123787923 | -177.687726262595 | -1.16201889448117 |
| 26 | 2069 | 2326.58218760525 | 15.2844475949366 | -99.0895446452328 | -1.12782875331418 |
| 27 | 2539 | 2389.4105316299 | 17.0512586925777 | 71.9497540548032 | 0.559463970507761 |
| 28 | 1898 | 2234.43182245384 | 10.8830472682195 | -47.9082378101042 | -2.07243240584179 |
| 29 | 2139 | 2203.84386939866 | 9.4801405110519 | 6.41385312759767 | -0.509604565413696 |
| 30 | 2408 | 2275.62278236465 | 11.4891012806336 | 23.7125971053252 | 0.774838753687826 |
| 31 | 2725 | 2381.13819449239 | 14.4199471795924 | 178.426969749659 | 1.17753880719335 |
| 32 | 2201 | 2382.62664898416 | 14.0258873333501 | -158.761635421280 | -0.162576001144295 |
| 33 | 2311 | 2336.75413416009 | 12.2271520125757 | 80.451777000753 | -0.754663194328951 |
| 34 | 2548 | 2409.99349635531 | 14.0402137239295 | 29.6518349396965 | 0.769591630052417 |
| 35 | 2276 | 2384.49583283888 | 12.8854315314510 | -38.1794947117766 | -0.499106278086742 |
| 36 | 2351 | 2368.58196306914 | 12.1179081880454 | 33.8808509422194 | -0.364557047304815 |
| 37 | 2280 | 2385.41613594782 | 12.1725533680226 | -114.170130056734 | 0.063399443341562 |
| 38 | 2057 | 2327.88737573754 | 10.1592773979396 | -150.951401315467 | -0.861682006720261 |
| 39 | 2479 | 2336.65588903099 | 10.1128392468197 | 144.658733149978 | -0.0167790817292452 |
| 40 | 2379 | 2366.84995375234 | 10.7818402290727 | -21.6273864467535 | 0.244823544580364 |
| 41 | 2295 | 2360.04851760571 | 10.2138029055493 | -35.0279408920613 | -0.217067870507476 |
| 42 | 2456 | 2395.72408709213 | 11.0124437439252 | 16.3582790116231 | 0.316927589427486 |
| 43 | 2546 | 2395.63946382603 | 10.6719550042110 | 169.616043005943 | -0.138780287798058 |
| 44 | 2844 | 2573.44512693157 | 15.7237965937197 | -20.4222636467289 | 2.09555971322776 |
| 45 | 2260 | 2488.94555423471 | 12.7249435159341 | -54.1387975858044 | -1.25832639425816 |
| 46 | 2981 | 2620.80684516328 | 16.2577783919955 | 152.180914523204 | 1.49678019660481 |
| 47 | 2678 | 2665.76211759077 | 17.0933551838880 | -37.9126994906149 | 0.360646363977283 |
| 48 | 3440 | 2893.89911708092 | 22.8360953038057 | 176.393358059848 | 2.65685016884167 |
| 49 | 2842 | 2938.73901089045 | 23.2999949757211 | -135.972328396457 | 0.285488905055748 |
| 50 | 2450 | 2862.0751534925 | 20.4312235045217 | -239.749285256507 | -1.2464512490544 |
| 51 | 2669 | 2771.64253895017 | 16.9208290995776 | 83.7070981314688 | -1.35544153240520 |
| 52 | 2570 | 2720.3095386397 | 14.7378155760905 | -35.2273139203102 | -0.83789219359093 |
| 53 | 2540 | 2684.96870346548 | 13.1592177338961 | -59.7412705698716 | -0.619746752675726 |
| 54 | 2318 | 2581.02329613585 | 9.53179944889732 | -62.2918662517905 | -1.45770808106484 |
| 55 | 2930 | 2645.2064582064 | 11.2006842931147 | 190.709487536901 | 0.682599401332796 |
| 56 | 2947 | 2742.34627320136 | 13.7979918751777 | 56.356485028651 | 1.07529534764335 |
| 57 | 2799 | 2804.96294559299 | 15.2620634339766 | -90.308873023946 | 0.611351643824623 |
| 58 | 2695 | 2753.50671652080 | 13.2773246172922 | 56.8339747241062 | -0.835723001540595 |
| 59 | 2498 | 2717.67540803193 | 11.8393042714856 | -134.758462468735 | -0.615019709736363 |
| 60 | 2260 | 2538.55208320895 | 6.48122319330301 | 51.9076942854881 | -2.39408691438801 |
| 61 | 2160 | 2444.51040588726 | 3.91682343995129 | -108.907279511997 | -1.28132608902420 |
| 62 | 2058 | 2381.63558023611 | 1.97912774313349 | -208.704077553093 | -0.834914159066098 |
| 63 | 2533 | 2387.00112370285 | 2.08351292572281 | 140.274588778856 | 0.0417188277800402 |
| 64 | 2150 | 2321.43473370249 | -0.0267652538521386 | -57.1136880869589 | -0.83422318567053 |
| 65 | 2172 | 2280.26567939317 | -1.30257983175175 | -38.3332987440948 | -0.510021742405173 |
| 66 | 2155 | 2265.18459602348 | -1.72562061020482 | -86.6433597727155 | -0.171533679977553 |
| 67 | 3016 | 2432.61357365038 | 3.42098343655144 | 293.449334128135 | 2.11114338629866 |
| 68 | 2333 | 2405.67438384447 | 2.50387041773582 | -20.5469214096226 | -0.37938121631614 |
| 69 | 2355 | 2409.24683041836 | 2.53595760672286 | -56.082978349615 | 0.0133590522323261 |
| 70 | 2825 | 2504.14560714921 | 5.29069178689218 | 162.118830888265 | 1.15457646958223 |
| 71 | 2214 | 2448.36772685131 | 3.49086567228421 | -129.449506415065 | -0.762977960121812 |
| 72 | 2360 | 2395.47726831333 | 1.87037824929759 | 61.3876679160496 | -0.7049564700646 |
| 73 | 2299 | 2388.72627942566 | 1.63180812406517 | -74.8278683188769 | -0.108872620591849 |
| 74 | 1746 | 2262.54061257741 | -2.11810716165301 | -297.123617546189 | -1.5983244210972 |
| 75 | 2069 | 2146.88895379273 | -5.57044025139316 | 114.635788765717 | -1.40492822372487 |
| 76 | 2267 | 2180.76661497741 | -4.3588718740703 | 19.4486496620494 | 0.487929812371759 |
| 77 | 1878 | 2105.32636872957 | -6.53802464069114 | -106.547545733590 | -0.882260019418131 |
| 78 | 2266 | 2182.61927647234 | -3.98197201754566 | -59.6009294012494 | 1.04382230096728 |
| 79 | 2282 | 2127.31194626323 | -5.5380709547135 | 242.443024553837 | -0.640299167523958 |
| 80 | 2085 | 2116.23987097918 | -5.70502810286925 | -21.7661479162565 | -0.0690976463676675 |
| 81 | 2277 | 2181.12587026067 | -3.58487897577327 | -25.0228625437212 | 0.881533975400648 |
| 82 | 2251 | 2149.51279579999 | -4.42227990805325 | 149.480722780880 | -0.349879948945289 |
| 83 | 1828 | 2082.95325012733 | -6.26343536482708 | -148.625383508770 | -0.77513685000886 |
| 84 | 1954 | 2014.26556831331 | -8.08688068608497 | 46.5299202000564 | -0.779249442295863 |
| 85 | 1851 | 1962.56479013236 | -9.34124191358312 | -36.6467867227512 | -0.547937700483472 |
| 86 | 1570 | 1913.91562199681 | -10.5039318689200 | -276.581646333038 | -0.491356676252319 |
| 87 | 1852 | 1854.66245356543 | -11.9761274038354 | 80.1482206233398 | -0.604852620666575 |
| 88 | 2187 | 1926.65233894198 | -9.42183871789272 | 118.004728584497 | 1.04071032819889 |
| 89 | 1855 | 1942.17187521455 | -8.66317904363502 | -129.549947334817 | 0.309851790029715 |
| 90 | 2218 | 2029.58521290353 | -5.74918531485462 | 24.7085047366001 | 1.19648834672343 |
| 91 | 2253 | 2028.0418463014 | -5.6220658167709 | 217.778033368776 | 0.0524556287423158 |
| 92 | 2028 | 2036.97742852879 | -5.18352445364373 | -33.8528586311110 | 0.181672706971415 |
| 93 | 2169 | 2074.26071609937 | -3.90838650949032 | 22.1626334273218 | 0.529927760982713 |
| 94 | 1997 | 2001.17639728716 | -5.9775820121492 | 113.995851451709 | -0.862737707536558 |
| 95 | 2034 | 2036.48627363584 | -4.74936232318035 | -72.9593243639823 | 0.514560753171482 |
| 96 | 1791 | 1946.62550762319 | -7.26110378739564 | -10.3763785558530 | -1.06144687649336 |
| 97 | 1627 | 1851.53088775974 | -9.83665587436138 | -74.179953205435 | -1.10020246269001 |
| 98 | 1631 | 1852.12836095423 | -9.52637354476888 | -238.971095626550 | 0.130356243790705 |
| 99 | 2319 | 1966.08434302041 | -5.81027694954828 | 142.966942318331 | 1.53452832693994 |
| 100 | 1707 | 1867.11689864009 | -8.62772817697718 | -2.04662736199526 | -1.15625865151546 |
| 101 | 1747 | 1867.9135505837 | -8.34255613176523 | -136.927495684913 | 0.117157091627650 |
| 102 | 2397 | 2007.44664374147 | -3.87464698898578 | 137.742093047112 | 1.84177777839206 |
| 103 | 2059 | 1969.18298054706 | -4.91149101521205 | 148.466540089527 | -0.428827980104091 |
| 104 | 2251 | 2056.99571563387 | -2.12194795263664 | 35.7578073675337 | 1.15673309234974 |
| 105 | 2558 | 2192.07096253954 | 1.99615022918312 | 131.790756402553 | 1.71115493565311 |
| 106 | 2406 | 2233.56519952296 | 3.17856041062205 | 105.066899044309 | 0.492309840561236 |
| 107 | 2049 | 2197.84130388033 | 2.01809952195158 | -82.5443521411148 | -0.48457406901269 |
| 108 | 2074 | 2157.89347190802 | 0.771812322923348 | -12.3806992989925 | -0.523080327638101 |
| 109 | 1734 | 2060.01427650079 | -2.15025908393324 | -157.507899649222 | -1.23347114126401 |
