| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1203.6 | 1203.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 1180.59 | 1181.83054196833 | -1.47498088467055 | -1.24054196832557 | -0.284024198566593 |
| 3 | 1156.85 | 1158.40276492714 | -3.12916107787666 | -1.55276492713600 | -0.462323929741867 |
| 4 | 1191.5 | 1192.01424019813 | 0.669401288963926 | -0.514240198133606 | 0.760616874849795 |
| 5 | 1191.33 | 1192.70611934575 | 0.672235173313777 | -1.37611934575391 | 0.000459285838405934 |
| 6 | 1234.18 | 1234.70291656316 | 6.58002256633772 | -0.522916563157383 | 0.835829612692212 |
| 7 | 1220.33 | 1221.97292549325 | 3.58378469172501 | -1.64292549324595 | -0.387630878363085 |
| 8 | 1228.81 | 1229.81194943179 | 4.28068175819037 | -1.00194943178630 | 0.0849579864893268 |
| 9 | 1207.01 | 1208.57725073455 | -0.0503146153421739 | -1.56725073455134 | -0.507481825158163 |
| 10 | 1249.48 | 1249.90859443526 | 7.14287248709373 | -0.428594435264753 | 0.82086059574743 |
| 11 | 1248.29 | 1249.74023734887 | 5.8517222871768 | -1.45023734886888 | -0.144761539281487 |
| 12 | 1280.08 | 1280.82290190401 | 10.3546672278062 | -0.742901904006777 | 0.498938923335298 |
| 13 | 1280.66 | 1275.21063547458 | 7.64671773513533 | 5.44936452542237 | -0.368327514523855 |
| 14 | 1294.87 | 1294.54749938523 | 9.71838081999919 | 0.322500614771585 | 0.196293489974706 |
| 15 | 1310.61 | 1311.55659085460 | 11.0353690801396 | -0.946590854604094 | 0.143751476310473 |
| 16 | 1270.09 | 1270.90294479547 | 1.67084497884017 | -0.812944795468013 | -1.01702690110898 |
| 17 | 1270.2 | 1270.95184494053 | 1.37662636397690 | -0.75184494052717 | -0.0319219051988098 |
| 18 | 1276.66 | 1275.83873383233 | 2.0139550606445 | 0.82126616767429 | 0.0690879403785712 |
| 19 | 1303.82 | 1304.03784468268 | 6.77107288975171 | -0.217844682676558 | 0.515363787841715 |
| 20 | 1335.85 | 1334.89445604312 | 11.1485680097861 | 0.955543956884228 | 0.474041356286752 |
| 21 | 1377.94 | 1378.55650846748 | 17.0595064661659 | -0.616508467479832 | 0.639922229899437 |
| 22 | 1400.63 | 1400.07011461834 | 17.8694212537579 | 0.559885381663795 | 0.0876659464967215 |
| 23 | 1418.3 | 1419.29017889795 | 18.1150641760275 | -0.990178897949044 | 0.0265860692238078 |
| 24 | 1438.24 | 1437.85538305442 | 18.1969030628394 | 0.384616945581490 | 0.0088557807557456 |
| 25 | 1406.82 | 1413.62079459185 | 10.5832916706126 | -6.80079459184968 | -0.901442063586917 |
| 26 | 1420.86 | 1420.59549304146 | 9.93827698556037 | 0.264506958542139 | -0.0649279143585996 |
| 27 | 1482.37 | 1479.05048958830 | 18.7375528218357 | 3.31951041169606 | 0.954465066061165 |
| 28 | 1530.62 | 1529.91198003084 | 24.5750185281037 | 0.708019969155754 | 0.630843765579274 |
| 29 | 1503.35 | 1505.43376495054 | 15.6634808200939 | -2.08376495053548 | -0.963662637039344 |
| 30 | 1455.27 | 1456.10312923839 | 3.85712254199394 | -0.833129238389272 | -1.27705335854543 |
| 31 | 1473.99 | 1472.58249671507 | 6.14989163406348 | 1.40750328492636 | 0.248027542212725 |
| 32 | 1526.75 | 1524.27853444794 | 14.4229540707048 | 2.47146555206171 | 0.895025146735357 |
| 33 | 1549.38 | 1549.43836503032 | 16.3731993238712 | -0.0583650303234399 | 0.210997924800498 |
| 34 | 1481.14 | 1483.12738189375 | 1.35429076178113 | -1.9873818937538 | -1.62496921053214 |
| 35 | 1468.36 | 1468.60415016739 | -1.52994286708432 | -0.244150167388990 | -0.312080844887497 |
| 36 | 1378.55 | 1379.40970929419 | -17.4434279596324 | -0.859709294190633 | -1.72170130499990 |
| 37 | 1330.63 | 1340.09292393723 | -21.3880618538749 | -9.46292393723279 | -0.451118795166033 |
| 38 | 1322.7 | 1323.57543919964 | -20.5138341225812 | -0.875439199635194 | 0.0902442463882552 |
| 39 | 1385.59 | 1380.06514646780 | -6.56943056665926 | 5.52485353219783 | 1.51256578428503 |
| 40 | 1400.38 | 1397.76117241646 | -2.16523547337056 | 2.61882758354123 | 0.476059988298106 |
| 41 | 1280 | 1284.23960953062 | -22.372626527401 | -4.23960953062272 | -2.18511249938945 |
| 42 | 1267.38 | 1266.07992115587 | -21.6082043740081 | 1.30007884412644 | 0.0826867743341093 |
| 43 | 1282.83 | 1280.91134873228 | -14.9966386807511 | 1.91865126772350 | 0.715244094821404 |
| 44 | 1166.36 | 1169.54167044699 | -32.4820818206898 | -3.1816704469876 | -1.89169962196002 |
| 45 | 968.75 | 971.730025609308 | -62.4784000181356 | -2.98002560930846 | -3.2453517183306 |
| 46 | 896.24 | 896.435677762127 | -64.8036881421995 | -0.195677762126545 | -0.251588995916415 |
| 47 | 903.25 | 896.326794186749 | -53.065015178427 | 6.92320581325083 | 1.27015766709631 |
| 48 | 825.88 | 827.117635861972 | -55.9916476971527 | -1.23763586197186 | -0.316704900562764 |
| 49 | 735.09 | 748.617320251757 | -60.0573085461071 | -13.5273202517568 | -0.456862317864839 |
| 50 | 797.87 | 797.734431881375 | -40.4129240524773 | 0.135568118624634 | 2.05604575055323 |
| 51 | 872.81 | 864.005074905056 | -21.1151238393168 | 8.80492509494428 | 2.09256909221330 |
| 52 | 919.14 | 908.016106417033 | -9.30619823359594 | 11.1238935829666 | 1.27685535300450 |
| 53 | 919.32 | 922.265054996798 | -5.03549660036184 | -2.94505499679804 | 0.461805437371435 |
| 54 | 987.48 | 985.326941497581 | 7.30965135007947 | 2.15305850241862 | 1.33538037188976 |
| 55 | 1020.62 | 1014.81907655139 | 11.3308889362981 | 5.80092344861396 | 0.435030050251917 |
| 56 | 1057.08 | 1050.51773296625 | 15.7481921427191 | 6.56226703374715 | 0.477902688790586 |
| 57 | 1036.19 | 1038.47515658027 | 10.7104055367327 | -2.28515658026792 | -0.545053910784206 |
| 58 | 1095.63 | 1095.21953837437 | 19.0554864526338 | 0.410461625631616 | 0.902929730448005 |
| 59 | 1115.1 | 1106.91151977254 | 17.7206058843324 | 8.18848022746418 | -0.144434962164476 |
| 60 | 1073.87 | 1075.52133933223 | 8.82681568371132 | -1.65133933223487 | -0.962748007605339 |
| 61 | 1104.49 | 1125.35890700867 | 16.2394810504188 | -20.8689070086678 | 0.824107489298788 |
| 62 | 1169.43 | 1172.96189607397 | 21.8911302851220 | -3.53189607397373 | 0.59671510432668 |
| 63 | 1186.69 | 1181.99745962783 | 19.5674769396398 | 4.69254037216617 | -0.251846304781234 |
| 64 | 1089.41 | 1084.97465089641 | -1.55693244978512 | 4.43534910359214 | -2.28483253462047 |
| 65 | 1030.71 | 1037.89762562787 | -9.80451386639556 | -7.18762562786593 | -0.891833279370407 |
| 66 | 1101.6 | 1095.78627262500 | 2.45916866098518 | 5.81372737499819 | 1.32656148890715 |
| 67 | 1049.33 | 1048.34263486264 | -6.58118110520495 | 0.987365137363155 | -0.978023875229743 |
| 68 | 1141.2 | 1127.55862208272 | 8.96150786880428 | 13.6413779172789 | 1.68156261293303 |
| 69 | 1183.26 | 1186.42609458333 | 18.0022741912657 | -3.16609458333172 | 0.97816078291961 |
| 70 | 1180.55 | 1182.22475562239 | 13.9798161313664 | -1.67475562239472 | -0.435232562037672 |
