Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[120])
108	2228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
109	1594	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
110	2467	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
111	2222	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
112	3607	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
113	4685	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
114	4962	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
115	5770	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
116	5480	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
117	5000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
118	3228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
119	1993	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
120	2288	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
121	1588	1502.2914	1300.7879	1735.0096	0.2352	0	0.2199	0
122	2105	2363.7201	2039.7284	2739.1749	0.0884	1	0.2949	0.6537
123	2191	2409.1968	2067.1967	2807.778	0.1416	0.9327	0.8214	0.7244
124	3591	3349.8741	2818.1272	3981.9553	0.2273	0.9998	0.2126	0.9995
125	4668	4823.3215	4055.7048	5736.2237	0.3694	0.9959	0.6168	1
126	4885	5237.5352	4374.2781	6271.1549	0.2519	0.8599	0.6993	1
127	5822	5338.5867	4434.5741	6426.8872	0.192	0.793	0.2186	1
128	5599	6022.985	5002.978	7250.9511	0.2493	0.6258	0.8069	1
129	5340	5161.6378	4266.423	6244.6936	0.3734	0.2143	0.6151	1
130	3082	3216.3537	2653.628	3898.4103	0.3497	0	0.4867	0.9962
131	2010	1953.9267	1611.4588	2369.1761	0.3956	0	0.4268	0.0574
132	2301	2300.1931	1891.4358	2797.2869	0.4987	0.8737	0.5192	0.5192

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
121	0.079	0.0571	0	7345.9623	0	0
122	0.081	-0.1095	0.0833	66936.1058	37141.034	192.7201
123	0.0844	-0.0906	0.0857	47609.8467	40630.6382	201.5704
124	0.0963	0.072	0.0823	58141.6866	45008.4003	212.1518
125	0.0966	-0.0322	0.0723	24124.7652	40831.6733	202.0685
126	0.1007	-0.0673	0.0714	124281.0946	54739.9102	233.9656
127	0.104	0.0906	0.0742	233688.4277	80303.9841	283.3796
128	0.104	-0.0704	0.0737	179763.3027	92736.3989	304.5265
129	0.1071	0.0346	0.0693	31813.0858	85967.1419	293.2015
130	0.1082	-0.0418	0.0666	18050.9068	79175.5184	281.3814
131	0.1084	0.0287	0.0631	3144.2112	72263.5814	268.8189
132	0.1103	4e-04	0.0579	0.651	66241.6705	257.3746