| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0535977728080357 |
| beta | 0.000530028422734916 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1615 | 1538.19070512821 | 76.8092948717931 |
| 14 | 2350 | 2260.4341115385 | 89.5658884614995 |
| 15 | 3350 | 3281.07212070563 | 68.9278792943678 |
| 16 | 3536 | 3537.06427000638 | -1.06427000638359 |
| 17 | 5834 | 5834.92996575642 | -0.929965756420643 |
| 18 | 6767 | 6774.80283349635 | -7.80283349634556 |
| 19 | 5993 | 6672.55710916704 | -679.557109167037 |
| 20 | 7276 | 6147.70421336274 | 1128.29578663726 |
| 21 | 5641 | 7098.19692601847 | -1457.19692601847 |
| 22 | 3477 | 3521.77992444771 | -44.7799244477064 |
| 23 | 2247 | 2046.52238964722 | 200.477610352776 |
| 24 | 2466 | 2647.79080771315 | -181.790807713152 |
| 25 | 1567 | 1522.96614664932 | 44.0338533506792 |
| 26 | 2237 | 2255.50181624142 | -18.5018162414208 |
| 27 | 2598 | 3250.78879452445 | -652.788794524454 |
| 28 | 3729 | 3401.81032399214 | 327.189676007861 |
| 29 | 5715 | 5717.35864362219 | -2.35864362219036 |
| 30 | 5776 | 6650.61223710473 | -874.612237104733 |
| 31 | 5852 | 5866.09488908419 | -14.0948890841892 |
| 32 | 6878 | 7087.82137027955 | -209.821370279547 |
| 33 | 5488 | 5519.59598532189 | -31.5959853218883 |
| 34 | 3583 | 3356.2611774559 | 226.738822544102 |
| 35 | 2054 | 2127.63499569831 | -73.6349956983131 |
| 36 | 2282 | 2352.39039501135 | -70.3903950113454 |
| 37 | 1552 | 1447.21916351783 | 104.780836482169 |
| 38 | 2261 | 2123.79021822474 | 137.209781775262 |
| 39 | 2446 | 2527.10018503946 | -81.1001850394614 |
| 40 | 3519 | 3636.20080115686 | -117.200801156859 |
| 41 | 5161 | 5616.01693622107 | -455.016936221075 |
| 42 | 5085 | 5699.46486948967 | -614.464869489669 |
| 43 | 5711 | 5743.25232569529 | -32.2523256952891 |
| 44 | 6057 | 6778.73506519813 | -721.735065198128 |
| 45 | 5224 | 5351.69603916262 | -127.696039162623 |
| 46 | 3363 | 3427.64728149998 | -64.6472814999765 |
| 47 | 1899 | 1899.06888669762 | -0.068886697616108 |
| 48 | 2115 | 2130.77993654896 | -15.7799365489645 |
| 49 | 1491 | 1394.26167264435 | 96.7383273556547 |
| 50 | 2061 | 2101.03578936866 | -40.0357893686601 |
| 51 | 2419 | 2288.17501080885 | 130.824989191147 |
| 52 | 3430 | 3374.41292250402 | 55.5870774959753 |
| 53 | 4778 | 5043.72935077699 | -265.729350776988 |
| 54 | 4862 | 4986.37536557658 | -124.375365576579 |
| 55 | 6176 | 5607.40626614289 | 568.593733857108 |
| 56 | 5664 | 6022.55057533152 | -358.550575331516 |
| 57 | 5529 | 5177.17316318898 | 351.826836811018 |
| 58 | 3418 | 3338.50474765172 | 79.4952523482793 |
| 59 | 1941 | 1878.78280243959 | 62.217197560411 |
| 60 | 2402 | 2098.97863869733 | 303.021361302675 |
| 61 | 1579 | 1486.05937008565 | 92.940629914353 |
| 62 | 2146 | 2063.21092230959 | 82.78907769041 |
| 63 | 2462 | 2418.66410600368 | 43.3358939963173 |
| 64 | 3695 | 3429.03278599895 | 265.967214001049 |
| 65 | 4831 | 4805.56183037692 | 25.4381696230757 |
| 66 | 5134 | 4897.6310664831 | 236.368933516904 |
| 67 | 6250 | 6193.87436954402 | 56.1256304559829 |
| 68 | 5760 | 5704.13534467181 | 55.8646553281851 |
| 69 | 6249 | 5553.31945782004 | 695.680542179962 |
| 70 | 2917 | 3475.4024122172 | -558.4024122172 |
| 71 | 1741 | 1965.17725698159 | -224.177256981593 |
| 72 | 2359 | 2397.95112283166 | -38.9511228316551 |
| 73 | 1511 | 1567.90284137867 | -56.9028413786732 |
| 74 | 2059 | 2127.43223157852 | -68.4322315785166 |
| 75 | 2635 | 2437.45397897118 | 197.546021028818 |
| 76 | 2867 | 3666.80340626359 | -799.803406263588 |
| 77 | 4403 | 4758.55866983873 | -355.558669838734 |
| 78 | 5720 | 5029.80821921765 | 690.191780782354 |
| 79 | 4502 | 6179.78119562558 | -1677.78119562558 |
| 80 | 5749 | 5596.80082469422 | 152.199175305781 |
| 81 | 5627 | 6056.61335608884 | -429.613356088836 |
| 82 | 2846 | 2731.42611714609 | 114.573882853915 |
| 83 | 1762 | 1573.51149640558 | 188.488503594418 |
| 84 | 2429 | 2203.64254960891 | 225.357450391094 |
| 85 | 1169 | 1370.71937694711 | -201.719376947109 |
| 86 | 2154 | 1911.51967316080 | 242.480326839205 |
| 87 | 2249 | 2489.88107473489 | -240.881074734888 |
| 88 | 2687 | 2751.77863475017 | -64.7786347501728 |
| 89 | 4359 | 4303.32524571644 | 55.6747542835556 |
| 90 | 5382 | 5586.28967745597 | -204.289677455972 |
| 91 | 4459 | 4447.21326151398 | 11.7867384860228 |
| 92 | 6398 | 5686.68318588384 | 711.316814116162 |
| 93 | 4596 | 5625.84610379992 | -1029.84610379992 |
| 94 | 3024 | 2783.50229160411 | 240.497708395894 |
| 95 | 1887 | 1702.28799668004 | 184.712003319959 |
| 96 | 2070 | 2367.10751149119 | -297.107511491186 |
| 97 | 1351 | 1101.97809781242 | 249.021902187579 |
| 98 | 2218 | 2087.32469437971 | 130.675305620286 |
| 99 | 2461 | 2202.23209534194 | 258.767904658057 |
| 100 | 3028 | 2657.58046995612 | 370.419530043876 |
| 101 | 4784 | 4346.46945290073 | 437.530547099273 |
| 102 | 4975 | 5403.89979933126 | -428.899799331258 |
| 103 | 4607 | 4457.30381344760 | 149.696186552395 |
| 104 | 6249 | 6366.22994747587 | -117.229947475873 |
| 105 | 4809 | 4613.14835207163 | 195.85164792837 |
| 106 | 3157 | 3038.7944538962 | 118.205546103800 |
| 107 | 1910 | 1898.26541302465 | 11.7345869753472 |
| 108 | 2228 | 2097.84930476264 | 130.150695237362 |
| 109 | 1594 | 1372.52085362760 | 221.479146372397 |
| 110 | 2467 | 2244.42973561878 | 222.570264381223 |
| 111 | 2222 | 2485.53423166698 | -263.534231666984 |
| 112 | 3607 | 3018.58549318573 | 588.414506814272 |
| 113 | 4685 | 4782.7085014647 | -97.7085014647 |
| 114 | 4962 | 4991.48037623507 | -29.4803762350712 |
| 115 | 5770 | 4613.90901720555 | 1156.09098279445 |
| 116 | 5480 | 6324.21687882173 | -844.216878821731 |
| 117 | 5000 | 4828.51156540994 | 171.488434590063 |
| 118 | 3228 | 3179.40676063280 | 48.593239367196 |
| 119 | 1993 | 1934.41967581065 | 58.5803241893482 |
| 120 | 2288 | 2248.62236763414 | 39.3776323658581 |
| 121 | 1588 | 1604.89825765683 | -16.8982576568255 |
| 122 | 2105 | 2465.09263190931 | -360.092631909306 |
| 123 | 2191 | 2214.93011791436 | -23.9301179143608 |
| 124 | 3591 | 3567.12941779773 | 23.8705822022721 |
| 125 | 4668 | 4651.64935610467 | 16.3506438953264 |
| 126 | 4885 | 4931.11260714286 | -46.1126071428598 |
| 127 | 5822 | 5674.68351019995 | 147.316489800049 |
| 128 | 5599 | 5437.80517075069 | 161.194829249307 |
| 129 | 5340 | 4957.25969883867 | 382.740301161328 |
| 130 | 3082 | 3203.18148086508 | -121.181480865077 |
| 131 | 2010 | 1958.55406918362 | 51.4459308163841 |
| 132 | 2301 | 2254.20812113126 | 46.7918788687393 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 1557.62919925444 | 787.213613065321 | 2328.04478544356 |
| 134 | 2093.93727103644 | 1322.41471214799 | 2865.45982992488 |
| 135 | 2181.23801040174 | 1408.60889418985 | 2953.86712661364 |
| 136 | 3579.97741851713 | 2806.24215795643 | 4353.71267907784 |
| 137 | 4656.11920045374 | 3881.27820613201 | 5430.96019477547 |
| 138 | 4875.60840903364 | 4099.66208916608 | 5651.55472890121 |
| 139 | 5804.7315588039 | 5027.68031924723 | 6581.78279836057 |
| 140 | 5573.10667547203 | 4794.95091973856 | 6351.2624312055 |
| 141 | 5293.60286899197 | 4514.34299826352 | 6072.86273972043 |
| 142 | 3042.09727468024 | 2261.73368782193 | 3822.46086153855 |
| 143 | 1967.34267814184 | 1185.87577171580 | 2748.80958456788 |
| 144 | 2255.83606692871 | 1473.26623520769 | 3038.40589864974 |
