| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0855239409013859 |
| beta | 0.00861805869647365 |
| gamma | 0.213843782000805 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 13912 | 13713.8616452992 | 198.138354700845 |
| 14 | 12376 | 12237.3748762257 | 138.625123774269 |
| 15 | 12264 | 12165.608808136 | 98.3911918640042 |
| 16 | 11675 | 11602.3909615597 | 72.6090384403142 |
| 17 | 11271 | 11232.5216401343 | 38.4783598656832 |
| 18 | 10672 | 10718.4700223933 | -46.4700223932668 |
| 19 | 10933 | 11477.5357001490 | -544.535700148968 |
| 20 | 10379 | 10900.3534880909 | -521.353488090906 |
| 21 | 10187 | 10028.3946463998 | 158.605353600167 |
| 22 | 10747 | 10858.3304646311 | -111.330464631134 |
| 23 | 10970 | 11042.4315850731 | -72.4315850730854 |
| 24 | 12175 | 13542.9311052669 | -1367.93110526689 |
| 25 | 14200 | 13640.9564500248 | 559.043549975173 |
| 26 | 11676 | 12182.5195771599 | -506.519577159881 |
| 27 | 11258 | 12046.0567129745 | -788.056712974529 |
| 28 | 10872 | 11399.6776304375 | -527.677630437483 |
| 29 | 11148 | 10969.0456721942 | 178.954327805764 |
| 30 | 10690 | 10447.7502384579 | 242.249761542109 |
| 31 | 10684 | 11131.6761360110 | -447.676136010969 |
| 32 | 11658 | 10564.9495330362 | 1093.05046696383 |
| 33 | 10178 | 9962.85854052486 | 215.141459475144 |
| 34 | 10981 | 10743.7122117321 | 237.287788267908 |
| 35 | 10773 | 10964.3623258355 | -191.362325835509 |
| 36 | 11665 | 13200.3882447923 | -1535.38824479229 |
| 37 | 11359 | 13659.8373938020 | -2300.83739380203 |
| 38 | 10716 | 11745.2439716718 | -1029.24397167176 |
| 39 | 12928 | 11505.4423402738 | 1422.55765972615 |
| 40 | 12317 | 11097.0941641864 | 1219.90583581364 |
| 41 | 11641 | 10953.4479311061 | 687.552068893927 |
| 42 | 10459 | 10487.7424564449 | -28.7424564449175 |
| 43 | 10953 | 11013.0887608071 | -60.088760807077 |
| 44 | 10703 | 10780.6078504390 | -77.607850438977 |
| 45 | 10703 | 9905.65607107289 | 797.343928927112 |
| 46 | 11101 | 10739.99996871 | 361.000031290003 |
| 47 | 11334 | 10886.8640933975 | 447.135906602451 |
| 48 | 13268 | 12914.5948218803 | 353.405178119687 |
| 49 | 13145 | 13387.2146794904 | -242.214679490446 |
| 50 | 12334 | 11900.1876435763 | 433.812356423736 |
| 51 | 13153 | 12268.8911989637 | 884.108801036253 |
| 52 | 11289 | 11778.3830384783 | -489.383038478321 |
| 53 | 11374 | 11386.7072670123 | -12.7072670123343 |
| 54 | 10914 | 10722.7817716782 | 191.218228321803 |
| 55 | 11299 | 11262.7160825153 | 36.283917484745 |
| 56 | 11284 | 11037.0284580154 | 246.971541984607 |
| 57 | 10694 | 10363.1534911704 | 330.846508829552 |
| 58 | 11077 | 11074.1439116167 | 2.85608838331063 |
| 59 | 11104 | 11208.8309473176 | -104.830947317561 |
| 60 | 12820 | 13172.2274431405 | -352.227443140535 |
| 61 | 14915 | 13468.7039411252 | 1446.29605887484 |
| 62 | 11773 | 12260.2115706604 | -487.211570660364 |
| 63 | 11608 | 12639.4505119112 | -1031.45051191124 |
| 64 | 11468 | 11716.3583354729 | -248.358335472936 |
| 65 | 11511 | 11438.5253216914 | 72.4746783086248 |
| 66 | 11200 | 10821.839395187 | 378.160604812998 |
| 67 | 11164 | 11347.6771776742 | -183.677177674197 |
| 68 | 10960 | 11144.4301184834 | -184.430118483384 |
| 69 | 10667 | 10449.7956701136 | 217.204329886375 |
| 70 | 11556 | 11086.5765484987 | 469.423451501318 |
| 71 | 11372 | 11240.1011649544 | 131.898835045560 |
| 72 | 12333 | 13175.5322214937 | -842.532221493697 |
| 73 | 13102 | 13781.5929641904 | -679.592964190426 |
| 74 | 11115 | 12011.4189219817 | -896.418921981742 |
| 75 | 12572 | 12247.1704316818 | 324.829568318222 |
| 76 | 11557 | 11592.1481751232 | -35.1481751232022 |
| 77 | 12059 | 11394.3852842205 | 664.61471577951 |
| 78 | 11420 | 10887.6514050885 | 532.348594911535 |
| 79 | 11185 | 11316.4508788237 | -131.450878823749 |
| 80 | 11113 | 11117.206795526 | -4.20679552599358 |
| 81 | 10706 | 10516.3438401836 | 189.656159816444 |
| 82 | 11523 | 11199.8875532506 | 323.112446749357 |
| 83 | 11391 | 11274.5827522382 | 116.417247761758 |
| 84 | 12634 | 13017.811776959 | -383.811776958994 |
| 85 | 13469 | 13694.9826878066 | -225.982687806641 |
| 86 | 11735 | 11921.5511117760 | -186.551111776020 |
| 87 | 13281 | 12457.7071262035 | 823.292873796512 |
| 88 | 11968 | 11776.1598943288 | 191.840105671192 |
| 89 | 11623 | 11736.0593158455 | -113.059315845545 |
| 90 | 11084 | 11137.7844347606 | -53.7844347605842 |
| 91 | 11509 | 11387.0482233904 | 121.951776609572 |
| 92 | 11134 | 11234.9481636655 | -100.94816366546 |
| 93 | 10438 | 10664.2398866485 | -226.239886648505 |
| 94 | 11530 | 11338.5235486798 | 191.476451320154 |
| 95 | 11491 | 11361.6543837804 | 129.345616219622 |
| 96 | 13093 | 13008.2902747097 | 84.7097252902804 |
| 97 | 13106 | 13756.8640629284 | -650.864062928398 |
| 98 | 11305 | 11954.9616424890 | -649.961642489032 |
| 99 | 13113 | 12648.7791076034 | 464.220892396606 |
| 100 | 12203 | 11812.5882983158 | 390.411701684201 |
| 101 | 11309 | 11729.5415219505 | -420.541521950521 |
| 102 | 11088 | 11116.0302103273 | -28.0302103272807 |
| 103 | 11234 | 11401.3508410301 | -167.350841030146 |
| 104 | 11619 | 11180.1941898230 | 438.805810177049 |
| 105 | 10942 | 10630.8191108987 | 311.180889101328 |
| 106 | 11445 | 11432.8204845849 | 12.1795154150514 |
| 107 | 11291 | 11428.4038341983 | -137.403834198294 |
| 108 | 13281 | 13043.2375723240 | 237.76242767598 |
| 109 | 13726 | 13660.9087761417 | 65.0912238583114 |
| 110 | 11300 | 11920.7947327492 | -620.794732749246 |
| 111 | 11983 | 12835.3927377838 | -852.392737783768 |
| 112 | 11092 | 11871.5978580237 | -779.597858023662 |
| 113 | 11093 | 11528.4705977143 | -435.470597714348 |
| 114 | 10692 | 10988.9983638023 | -296.998363802333 |
| 115 | 10786 | 11222.4310004773 | -436.431000477263 |
| 116 | 11166 | 11094.9602744743 | 71.0397255257194 |
| 117 | 10553 | 10487.0653800712 | 65.9346199287847 |
| 118 | 11103 | 11207.3310314392 | -104.331031439227 |
| 119 | 10969 | 11161.3222154438 | -192.32221544381 |
| 120 | 12090 | 12842.4083353394 | -752.408335339358 |
| 121 | 12544 | 13338.4832797733 | -794.483279773329 |
| 122 | 12264 | 11386.9468133375 | 877.053186662453 |
| 123 | 13783 | 12381.6807296525 | 1401.31927034755 |
| 124 | 11214 | 11623.8528924113 | -409.852892411323 |
| 125 | 11453 | 11378.9013181109 | 74.098681889076 |
| 126 | 10883 | 10909.7218021862 | -26.7218021862172 |
| 127 | 10381 | 11138.8354157542 | -757.835415754245 |
| 128 | 10348 | 11082.7110859067 | -734.711085906678 |
| 129 | 10024 | 10403.9087196856 | -379.908719685563 |
| 130 | 10805 | 11051.4210219283 | -246.421021928287 |
| 131 | 10796 | 10974.6214978413 | -178.62149784127 |
| 132 | 11907 | 12545.930308905 | -638.930308905003 |
| 133 | 12261 | 13042.1446174628 | -781.14461746276 |
| 134 | 11377 | 11417.2983454144 | -40.2983454144105 |
| 135 | 12689 | 12434.0955471457 | 254.904452854324 |
| 136 | 11474 | 11221.1889642829 | 252.811035717121 |
| 137 | 10992 | 11125.1895708322 | -133.189570832175 |
| 138 | 10764 | 10616.0526039754 | 147.947396024572 |
| 139 | 12164 | 10714.7470281337 | 1449.25297186628 |
| 140 | 10409 | 10851.1457581461 | -442.145758146078 |
| 141 | 10398 | 10266.2058348480 | 131.794165152029 |
| 142 | 10349 | 10983.4200440787 | -634.420044078666 |
| 143 | 10865 | 10886.2447473934 | -21.2447473933717 |
| 144 | 11630 | 12380.6622302628 | -750.662230262773 |
| 145 | 12221 | 12839.0926009216 | -618.092600921605 |
| 146 | 10884 | 11372.7701024268 | -488.77010242679 |
| 147 | 12019 | 12408.3127903861 | -389.312790386075 |
| 148 | 11021 | 11138.7981807552 | -117.798180755239 |
| 149 | 10799 | 10934.2426618679 | -135.242661867938 |
| 150 | 10423 | 10478.5305294948 | -55.530529494763 |
| 151 | 10484 | 10812.7722607621 | -328.7722607621 |
| 152 | 10450 | 10424.3969616586 | 25.6030383414291 |
| 153 | 9906 | 9989.204556255 | -83.2045562550065 |
| 154 | 11049 | 10535.5426932424 | 513.457306757588 |
| 155 | 11281 | 10654.6424414418 | 626.357558558153 |
| 156 | 12485 | 12060.4760347732 | 424.523965226803 |
| 157 | 12849 | 12644.8756468006 | 204.124353199360 |
| 158 | 11380 | 11274.3060916889 | 105.693908311061 |
| 159 | 12079 | 12380.7212565589 | -301.721256558851 |
| 160 | 11366 | 11172.4406195528 | 193.559380447236 |
| 161 | 11328 | 10991.9785115000 | 336.021488499970 |
| 162 | 10444 | 10593.3824404453 | -149.382440445264 |
| 163 | 10854 | 10867.3182072975 | -13.3182072974505 |
| 164 | 10434 | 10576.6085687239 | -142.608568723932 |
| 165 | 10137 | 10107.0151104702 | 29.9848895298455 |
| 166 | 10992 | 10781.0602411463 | 210.939758853718 |
| 167 | 10906 | 10897.4891009266 | 8.51089907344976 |
| 168 | 12367 | 12211.6804503702 | 155.319549629827 |
| 169 | 14371 | 12730.4259818257 | 1640.57401817425 |
| 170 | 11695 | 11464.9870234456 | 230.012976554448 |
| 171 | 11546 | 12503.9823220540 | -957.982322054046 |
| 172 | 10922 | 11337.566526828 | -415.566526828008 |
| 173 | 10670 | 11133.5560544401 | -463.55605444014 |
| 174 | 10254 | 10571.7517609036 | -317.751760903628 |
| 175 | 10573 | 10857.8698415874 | -284.869841587413 |
| 176 | 10239 | 10518.4263887194 | -279.426388719361 |
| 177 | 10253 | 10070.5561374226 | 182.443862577447 |
| 178 | 11176 | 10792.8120522472 | 383.187947752767 |
| 179 | 10719 | 10884.2984910501 | -165.298491050124 |
| 180 | 11817 | 12212.1182532878 | -395.118253287785 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 181 | 12973.6155484516 | 11906.4177722517 | 14040.8133246516 |
| 182 | 11290.195165701 | 10219.0342609654 | 12361.3560704366 |
| 183 | 12075.2000960665 | 11000.0230344597 | 13150.3771576733 |
| 184 | 11095.4926278845 | 10016.2463997920 | 12174.7388559770 |
| 185 | 10916.6505154357 | 9833.28213746593 | 12000.0188934055 |
| 186 | 10422.3578538924 | 9334.81437622551 | 11509.9013315592 |
| 187 | 10741.6694707908 | 9649.89798437254 | 11833.4409572090 |
| 188 | 10427.4515963990 | 9331.39923997768 | 11523.5039528204 |
| 189 | 10093.8038806038 | 8993.41784760905 | 11194.1899135986 |
| 190 | 10839.5823641583 | 9734.80990942084 | 11944.3548188958 |
| 191 | 10790.624728234 | 9681.41317454438 | 11899.8362819236 |
| 192 | 12087.3478388302 | 10973.6445833367 | 13201.0510943237 |
