| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.79903298900027 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 1319 | 1203 | 116 |
| 3 | 1328 | 1295.68782672403 | 32.3121732759687 |
| 4 | 1260 | 1321.50631911782 | -61.5063191178233 |
| 5 | 1286 | 1272.36074111070 | 13.6392588892954 |
| 6 | 1274 | 1283.25895890877 | -9.25895890876677 |
| 7 | 1389 | 1275.86074529686 | 113.139254703136 |
| 8 | 1255 | 1366.26274215557 | -111.262742155574 |
| 9 | 1244 | 1277.36014072664 | -33.3601407266392 |
| 10 | 1336 | 1250.70428776836 | 85.295712231637 |
| 11 | 1214 | 1318.85837566171 | -104.858375661715 |
| 12 | 1239 | 1235.07307433502 | 3.9269256649784 |
| 13 | 1174 | 1238.21081748669 | -64.2108174866912 |
| 14 | 1061 | 1186.90425606415 | -125.904256064150 |
| 15 | 1116 | 1086.30260201336 | 29.6973979866432 |
| 16 | 1123 | 1110.03180269215 | 12.968197307845 |
| 17 | 1086 | 1120.39382014899 | -34.3938201489877 |
| 18 | 1074 | 1092.91202323220 | -18.9120232322043 |
| 19 | 965 | 1077.80069278093 | -112.800692780934 |
| 20 | 1035 | 987.669218066883 | 47.3307819331169 |
| 21 | 1016 | 1025.48807422662 | -9.4880742266214 |
| 22 | 941 | 1017.90678991747 | -76.9067899174677 |
| 23 | 1003 | 956.455727695298 | 46.5442723047024 |
| 24 | 998 | 993.646136715766 | 4.35386328423351 |
| 25 | 891 | 997.125017109466 | -106.125017109466 |
| 26 | 828 | 912.327627480785 | -84.3276274807846 |
| 27 | 833 | 844.947071239512 | -11.9470712395118 |
| 28 | 887 | 835.400967197206 | 51.5990328027945 |
| 29 | 842 | 876.630296607145 | -34.6302966071454 |
| 30 | 793 | 848.959547199172 | -55.959547199172 |
| 31 | 778 | 804.246022937516 | -26.2460229375159 |
| 32 | 699 | 783.274584780383 | -84.274584780383 |
| 33 | 686 | 715.936411406557 | -29.936411406557 |
| 34 | 727 | 692.016231120434 | 34.983768879566 |
| 35 | 641 | 719.969416534768 | -78.9694165347682 |
| 36 | 619 | 656.870247601385 | -37.870247601385 |
| 37 | 627 | 626.61067046627 | 0.389329533730006 |
| 38 | 593 | 626.921757607312 | -33.9217576073123 |
| 39 | 535 | 599.817154234199 | -64.817154234199 |
| 40 | 536 | 548.026109747956 | -12.0261097479555 |
| 41 | 504 | 538.416851330001 | -34.4168513300014 |
| 42 | 487 | 510.916651739812 | -23.9166517398124 |
| 43 | 477 | 491.806458013272 | -14.8064580132716 |
| 44 | 435 | 479.97560961042 | -44.9756096104202 |
| 45 | 433 | 444.038613831297 | -11.0386138312969 |
| 46 | 393 | 435.218397227256 | -42.218397227256 |
| 47 | 389 | 401.484505099961 | -12.4845050999609 |
| 48 | 377 | 391.50897367375 | -14.5089736737501 |
| 49 | 339 | 379.915825071887 | -40.9158250718873 |
| 50 | 370 | 347.222731067285 | 22.777268932715 |
| 51 | 350 | 365.422520343855 | -15.4225203438552 |
| 52 | 341 | 353.099417815587 | -12.0994178155871 |
| 53 | 367 | 343.431583833235 | 23.5684161667646 |
| 54 | 396 | 362.263525848968 | 33.7364741510324 |
| 55 | 408 | 389.220081628197 | 18.7799183718026 |
| 56 | 405 | 404.225855938 | 0.774144062000119 |
| 57 | 391 | 404.844422581777 | -13.8444225817766 |
| 58 | 396 | 393.782272225277 | 2.21772777472319 |
| 59 | 368 | 395.554309877903 | -27.5543098779028 |
| 60 | 356 | 373.537507296322 | -17.5375072963225 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 359.524460421728 | 259.615045741503 | 459.433875101953 |
| 62 | 359.524460421728 | 231.638313208750 | 487.410607634706 |
| 63 | 359.524460421728 | 208.766899562533 | 510.282021280923 |
| 64 | 359.524460421728 | 188.934842732232 | 530.114078111224 |
| 65 | 359.524460421728 | 171.179582151352 | 547.869338692104 |
| 66 | 359.524460421728 | 154.959632853748 | 564.089287989707 |
| 67 | 359.524460421728 | 139.934514875144 | 579.114405968312 |
| 68 | 359.524460421728 | 125.873610450267 | 593.175310393189 |
| 69 | 359.524460421728 | 112.612137522241 | 606.436783321215 |
| 70 | 359.524460421728 | 100.027503393606 | 619.02141744985 |
| 71 | 359.524460421728 | 88.0255723685921 | 631.023348474864 |
| 72 | 359.524460421728 | 76.5321960021442 | 642.516724841312 |
