Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 548604 | 548604 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 563668 | 562016.947440278 | 704.345528645455 | 1651.05255972227 | 0.639639182814211 |
3 | 586111 | 580587.370185185 | 1179.82651323899 | 5523.62981481553 | 1.32250295302630 |
4 | 604378 | 599693.449905042 | 1327.17000450475 | 4684.55009495789 | 1.37853242285227 |
5 | 600991 | 601398.733889013 | 1329.08392847948 | -407.733889012837 | 0.0290542150589399 |
6 | 544686 | 556523.987680729 | 1073.30169941725 | -11837.9876807288 | -3.54876999359405 |
7 | 537034 | 537049.222147274 | 952.075417468482 | -15.2221472740840 | -1.57803770617811 |
8 | 551531 | 546147.11335907 | 1000.47887495443 | 5383.88664093047 | 0.625573455780406 |
9 | 563250 | 559557.27281574 | 1073.67734184806 | 3692.72718426024 | 0.953025681362728 |
10 | 574761 | 571790.047426 | 1139.01655928620 | 2970.95257399994 | 0.856977807592458 |
11 | 580112 | 578528.619184439 | 1171.60186657992 | 1583.38081556105 | 0.430020595573834 |
12 | 575093 | 575649.431964169 | 1148.16509997577 | -556.431964169046 | -0.311078881348947 |
13 | 557560 | 571421.297157701 | 1349.79472472095 | -13861.2971577006 | -0.471200136501134 |
14 | 564478 | 568188.482915325 | 1283.03565245604 | -3710.48291532461 | -0.32323754592142 |
15 | 580523 | 576746.451622686 | 1415.5297397816 | 3776.54837731381 | 0.533231188285758 |
16 | 596594 | 589423.709881159 | 1520.44063600364 | 7170.29011884085 | 0.861826031391642 |
17 | 586570 | 581622.379450372 | 1479.56565841286 | 4947.62054962772 | -0.715940513077779 |
18 | 536214 | 553065.457233961 | 1377.66476117585 | -16851.4572339609 | -2.30570576608185 |
19 | 523597 | 530088.112874485 | 1289.78744144588 | -6491.11287448514 | -1.86896203968085 |
20 | 536535 | 530412.388294499 | 1286.06194085891 | 6122.61170550146 | -0.0740821968556601 |
21 | 536322 | 533617.286186172 | 1293.81557036507 | 2704.71381382838 | 0.147239612346936 |
22 | 532638 | 532136.122398902 | 1282.01949789657 | 501.877601098182 | -0.213001426720579 |
23 | 528222 | 527642.984028959 | 1260.65960189303 | 579.015971040655 | -0.44324080235284 |
24 | 516141 | 518326.266440672 | 1270.60730664961 | -2185.26644067168 | -0.811547659722004 |
25 | 501866 | 514950.103225772 | 1325.25343203174 | -13084.1032257723 | -0.370839965838765 |
26 | 506174 | 513145.269568085 | 1306.43455297191 | -6971.26956808448 | -0.233418623836777 |
27 | 517945 | 516861.07370766 | 1336.64601858446 | 1083.92629233995 | 0.178405386398126 |
28 | 533590 | 522681.848119795 | 1377.66474066902 | 10908.1518802055 | 0.341535753705118 |
29 | 528379 | 517987.674827628 | 1346.87752453859 | 10391.3251723717 | -0.466003285148121 |
30 | 477580 | 496454.69601857 | 1271.38380308250 | -18874.69601857 | -1.75634529924390 |
31 | 469357 | 480367.35815971 | 1218.61067102278 | -11010.3581597097 | -1.33207411105833 |
32 | 490243 | 482446.849443023 | 1221.44251279894 | 7796.15055697727 | 0.0660522630845694 |
33 | 492622 | 487522.847968293 | 1235.28611605162 | 5099.15203170746 | 0.295784921494092 |
34 | 507561 | 500922.096536194 | 1278.32452707196 | 6638.90346380574 | 0.933572815125066 |
35 | 516922 | 511150.734183575 | 1297.22109434975 | 5771.26581642509 | 0.686378408821981 |
36 | 514258 | 515156.212708348 | 1292.52187393446 | -898.212708347512 | 0.208071963458438 |
37 | 509846 | 520906.756593135 | 1271.51687832713 | -11060.7565931349 | 0.346934361529854 |
38 | 527070 | 532181.755531434 | 1307.98800886166 | -5111.75553143357 | 0.75607371720059 |
39 | 541657 | 540702.499209796 | 1373.12762803159 | 954.500790203915 | 0.539284885910175 |
40 | 564591 | 549486.77880843 | 1433.89180163269 | 15104.2211915696 | 0.563200775250767 |
41 | 555362 | 542173.003857475 | 1386.64288498744 | 13188.9961425245 | -0.670534840718818 |
42 | 498662 | 520851.229313406 | 1305.85520934167 | -22189.2293134055 | -1.74299882216345 |
43 | 511038 | 520502.201240661 | 1300.94174224817 | -9464.20124066087 | -0.127006889914247 |
44 | 525919 | 519501.247726123 | 1293.94344032715 | 6417.75227387652 | -0.176646543200523 |
45 | 531673 | 526930.57305361 | 1313.48310614462 | 4742.42694638963 | 0.470848519105573 |
46 | 548854 | 540039.138514952 | 1346.54794980713 | 8814.861485048 | 0.904969652727832 |
47 | 560576 | 552145.379873763 | 1359.86889691095 | 8430.620126237 | 0.824863991198845 |
48 | 557274 | 558852.538053309 | 1352.93998815335 | -1578.53805330925 | 0.410785419128755 |
49 | 565742 | 575097.120918293 | 1324.98151124578 | -9355.12091829265 | 1.14821707539112 |