| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 235243 | 235243 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 230354 | 232283.475300317 | -3118.98546718632 | -1929.47530031745 | -0.787770786139232 |
| 3 | 227184 | 226737.043058758 | -4667.55045327995 | 446.956941242212 | -0.314224091923093 |
| 4 | 221678 | 221561.922420082 | -5005.54543250559 | 116.077579917826 | -0.071999339595215 |
| 5 | 217142 | 216898.935455963 | -4777.82355696093 | 243.064544037223 | 0.0449541604538859 |
| 6 | 219452 | 217433.461776764 | -1312.92777950473 | 2018.53822323614 | 0.688572060871794 |
| 7 | 256446 | 245673.039130419 | 18012.034389361 | 10772.9608695808 | 3.85734568502129 |
| 8 | 265845 | 267933.871596819 | 20797.4692310085 | -2088.87159681906 | 0.554935040690873 |
| 9 | 248624 | 260257.126115788 | 2125.53403808093 | -11633.1261157883 | -3.71935122915677 |
| 10 | 241114 | 244536.289229718 | -9574.88059089592 | -3422.28922971804 | -2.33087005318605 |
| 11 | 229245 | 229277.411038897 | -13300.5565978056 | -32.411038896804 | -0.742179145405557 |
| 12 | 231805 | 226913.205900511 | -6132.7909741586 | 4891.79409948901 | 1.42785852085247 |
| 13 | 219277 | 220596.426578587 | -6252.94520354418 | -1319.4265785873 | -0.0240284551797335 |
| 14 | 219313 | 218258.291322507 | -3684.64827810473 | 1054.70867749254 | 0.520038923266318 |
| 15 | 212610 | 211882.273225669 | -5403.86472967043 | 727.726774330758 | -0.33946396850086 |
| 16 | 214771 | 210534.651651769 | -2851.4499552408 | 4236.34834823129 | 0.515689148976804 |
| 17 | 211142 | 211986.062548644 | -109.067057220854 | -844.062548643847 | 0.550216572046135 |
| 18 | 211457 | 219667.008839153 | 4826.62660617173 | -8210.00883915304 | 0.97900546599519 |
| 19 | 240048 | 230625.936858628 | 8692.09125520746 | 9422.0631413718 | 0.769657809871539 |
| 20 | 240636 | 235259.81343547 | 6129.7580031356 | 5376.18656452976 | -0.510881514528709 |
| 21 | 230580 | 236834.342967043 | 3249.43051961296 | -6254.34296704321 | -0.573777676921273 |
| 22 | 208795 | 218436.564653128 | -10440.6554181222 | -9641.56465312842 | -2.72716790482247 |
| 23 | 197922 | 202030.328090383 | -14211.3805973328 | -4108.32809038303 | -0.751187175939356 |
| 24 | 194596 | 188821.104848968 | -13578.7013261792 | 5774.89515103165 | 0.126098282857188 |
| 25 | 194581 | 190553.625863171 | -3909.59532475463 | 4027.37413682891 | 1.932342386762 |
| 26 | 185686 | 184778.249522188 | -5089.45660868973 | 907.750477812478 | -0.2354425777624 |
| 27 | 178106 | 178163.860071679 | -6046.06533564857 | -57.8600716789767 | -0.189976400953351 |
| 28 | 172608 | 170360.121716464 | -7142.2339836255 | 2247.87828353585 | -0.219140218164648 |
| 29 | 167302 | 169410.018440859 | -3261.32092299261 | -2108.01844085947 | 0.776881772309404 |
| 30 | 168053 | 176474.537922729 | 3213.05582589735 | -8421.53792272916 | 1.28832533634249 |
| 31 | 202300 | 189940.055174568 | 9617.96389374864 | 12359.9448254316 | 1.27393816818813 |
| 32 | 202388 | 196887.834023677 | 7950.65690762981 | 5500.16597632308 | -0.332184095681747 |
| 33 | 182516 | 186807.23545374 | -3321.57149718465 | -4291.23545373993 | -2.24587418391417 |
| 34 | 173476 | 180162.302467512 | -5400.04613149327 | -6686.30246751232 | -0.414047163981782 |
| 35 | 166444 | 172531.68125591 | -6794.52712687721 | -6087.68125591043 | -0.277821536677563 |
| 36 | 171297 | 169600.330112866 | -4380.24512249172 | 1696.66988713449 | 0.481335141427902 |
| 37 | 169701 | 164873.355591314 | -4597.10585510348 | 4827.64440868621 | -0.0432704221247869 |
| 38 | 164182 | 160991.666746623 | -4149.74274399488 | 3190.33325337734 | 0.089111366597111 |
| 39 | 161914 | 159351.935854454 | -2586.57808734296 | 2562.06414554566 | 0.310929178690287 |
| 40 | 159612 | 159043.357433323 | -1171.65522107888 | 568.642566677129 | 0.282279828668302 |
| 41 | 151001 | 158348.976122202 | -874.530947359976 | -7347.97612220182 | 0.0593581284609816 |
| 42 | 158114 | 167694.406679814 | 5495.7522704793 | -9580.40667981372 | 1.26920530017726 |
| 43 | 186530 | 173559.380065215 | 5725.48084138091 | 12970.6199347845 | 0.0457091639308827 |
| 44 | 187069 | 175926.92139224 | 3638.62808639775 | 11142.0786077599 | -0.415535207167158 |
| 45 | 174330 | 177636.098766244 | 2439.16335767283 | -3306.09876624417 | -0.238959092548035 |
| 46 | 169362 | 176635.221022719 | 299.840975595553 | -7273.22102271888 | -0.426228488063223 |
| 47 | 166827 | 174832.720507105 | -1007.54407215932 | -8005.72050710466 | -0.260527834256694 |
| 48 | 178037 | 175280.961486966 | -102.060899705734 | 2756.0385130343 | 0.180519749166594 |
| 49 | 186413 | 179870.875495755 | 2817.97272918215 | 6542.12450424504 | 0.582122455906605 |
| 50 | 189226 | 185671.883585803 | 4673.28904961722 | 3554.11641419733 | 0.36942268709986 |
| 51 | 191563 | 189675.874907847 | 4258.05910248038 | 1887.12509215314 | -0.082643755255516 |
| 52 | 188906 | 190335.818221649 | 2028.99532284567 | -1429.81822164902 | -0.444422383109327 |
| 53 | 186005 | 195991.271897971 | 4278.53217885679 | -9986.271897971 | 0.448956904681937 |
| 54 | 195309 | 204153.79650601 | 6690.55331169134 | -8844.79650601042 | 0.48074346176637 |
| 55 | 223532 | 210076.941439276 | 6214.3869188622 | 13455.0585607243 | -0.0947850942146274 |
| 56 | 226899 | 215171.058723992 | 5520.11811844759 | 11727.9412760083 | -0.138217594040503 |
| 57 | 214126 | 217029.405839082 | 3251.52539822038 | -2903.40583908191 | -0.451886535516855 |
| 58 | 206903 | 214883.799169536 | -92.7381171694744 | -7980.79916953632 | -0.666379595495791 |
| 59 | 204442 | 213310.665913817 | -1010.2650646007 | -8868.6659138167 | -0.182874987463589 |
| 60 | 220375 | 217561.595167895 | 2251.93151830071 | 2813.40483210534 | 0.650301218751216 |
| 61 | 214320 | 212156.014582494 | -2497.6580778006 | 2163.98541750632 | -0.946444689196778 |
| 62 | 212588 | 208105.379468978 | -3460.18209530756 | 4482.62053102215 | -0.191637979443586 |
| 63 | 205816 | 203063.437639888 | -4438.83384747022 | 2752.56236011208 | -0.194837158824675 |
| 64 | 202196 | 203404.570810108 | -1484.02833993371 | -1208.57081010757 | 0.588965764473686 |
| 65 | 195722 | 206204.151765535 | 1166.2399327503 | -10482.1517655351 | 0.528666137790662 |
| 66 | 198563 | 207629.746865737 | 1326.85416587885 | -9066.74686573736 | 0.0320147999893518 |
| 67 | 229139 | 213566.288803157 | 4180.36989740567 | 15572.711196843 | 0.568183536881156 |
| 68 | 229527 | 216885.804770334 | 3648.06076624843 | 12641.1952296657 | -0.105972790114439 |
| 69 | 211868 | 214846.136836091 | 133.325135065316 | -2978.13683609107 | -0.700038566080598 |
| 70 | 203555 | 212339.306904918 | -1498.14441994838 | -8784.30690491777 | -0.325106632455227 |
| 71 | 195770 | 207585.790379837 | -3510.52938433171 | -11815.7903798365 | -0.401137466304889 |
