| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[207]) |
| 206 | 156.9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 207 | 160.5 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 208 | 163 | 164.2013 | 162.5257 | 165.8768 | 0.08 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 209 | 166.6 | 168.1947 | 164.6433 | 171.7461 | 0.1894 | 0.9979 | 0.9979 | 1 |
| 210 | 172.2 | 172.3511 | 166.9847 | 177.7174 | 0.478 | 0.9822 | 0.9822 | 1 |
| 211 | 177.1 | 176.5391 | 169.467 | 183.6112 | 0.4382 | 0.8854 | 0.8854 | 1 |
| 212 | 179.9 | 180.7065 | 171.9684 | 189.4446 | 0.4282 | 0.7907 | 0.7907 | 1 |
| 213 | 184 | 184.8526 | 174.4202 | 195.285 | 0.4364 | 0.8239 | 0.8239 | 1 |
| 214 | 188.9 | 188.9901 | 176.7996 | 201.1807 | 0.4942 | 0.7888 | 0.7888 | 1 |
| 215 | 195.3 | 193.1275 | 179.1047 | 207.1504 | 0.3807 | 0.7227 | 0.7227 | 1 |
| 216 | 201.6 | 197.267 | 181.3389 | 213.1951 | 0.297 | 0.5956 | 0.5956 | 1 |
| 217 | 207.34 | 201.4078 | 183.5048 | 219.3108 | 0.258 | 0.4916 | 0.4916 | 1 |
| 218 | 215.3 | 205.549 | 185.604 | 225.494 | 0.169 | 0.4301 | 0.4301 | 1 |
| 219 | 214.54 | 209.6901 | 187.6378 | 231.7424 | 0.3332 | 0.309 | 0.309 | 1 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 208 | 0.0052 | -0.0073 | 0 | 1.4431 | 0 | 0 |
| 209 | 0.0108 | -0.0095 | 0.0084 | 2.543 | 1.993 | 1.4117 |
| 210 | 0.0159 | -9e-04 | 0.0059 | 0.0228 | 1.3363 | 1.156 |
| 211 | 0.0204 | 0.0032 | 0.0052 | 0.3146 | 1.0809 | 1.0396 |
| 212 | 0.0247 | -0.0045 | 0.0051 | 0.6504 | 0.9948 | 0.9974 |
| 213 | 0.0288 | -0.0046 | 0.005 | 0.7269 | 0.9501 | 0.9748 |
| 214 | 0.0329 | -5e-04 | 0.0043 | 0.0081 | 0.8156 | 0.9031 |
| 215 | 0.037 | 0.0112 | 0.0052 | 4.7196 | 1.3036 | 1.1417 |
| 216 | 0.0412 | 0.022 | 0.0071 | 18.7749 | 3.2448 | 1.8013 |
| 217 | 0.0454 | 0.0295 | 0.0093 | 35.1908 | 6.4394 | 2.5376 |
| 218 | 0.0495 | 0.0474 | 0.0128 | 95.082 | 14.4978 | 3.8076 |
| 219 | 0.0537 | 0.0231 | 0.0136 | 23.5218 | 15.2498 | 3.9051 |
