Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 26548 | 26548 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 26752 | 26715.0711601537 | 20.6390422870589 | 36.9288398463191 | 0.655157802561565 |
3 | 26967 | 26905.9848574437 | 60.6524450815843 | 61.0151425563079 | 0.797201645473681 |
4 | 27034 | 27023.3368428961 | 78.3387848253866 | 10.6631571039364 | 0.260047571583508 |
5 | 27056 | 27064.5026227903 | 65.9119502713695 | -8.50262279034184 | -0.163277419399898 |
6 | 27476 | 27371.7479631305 | 148.157340019902 | 104.252036869505 | 1.05359781154324 |
7 | 28497 | 28251.0395063614 | 399.416856521773 | 245.960493638624 | 3.19443636634054 |
8 | 29085 | 29029.5396239157 | 530.197917709607 | 55.4603760843449 | 1.65696680734548 |
9 | 28720 | 28972.3331143086 | 327.219979063559 | -252.333114308634 | -2.56773172212168 |
10 | 29067 | 29067.6843740869 | 247.046495247978 | -0.684374086876244 | -1.01358872503052 |
11 | 29249 | 29237.9329865949 | 220.484756303641 | 11.0670134050717 | -0.335726035983488 |
12 | 29672 | 29600.61195138 | 269.671633375584 | 71.3880486199861 | 0.62164125467645 |
13 | 29761 | 29878.9303215381 | 272.580636832681 | -117.930321538066 | 0.0404532214802299 |
14 | 30066 | 30100.7268984668 | 255.444053548699 | -34.7268984668399 | -0.208407717797834 |
15 | 30315 | 30273.8784421762 | 228.505373595743 | 41.1215578238274 | -0.335766994045634 |
16 | 30571 | 30507.164335154 | 230.102196499273 | 63.8356648459858 | 0.0204911994051311 |
17 | 30757 | 30807.9256950309 | 253.991899944700 | -50.9256950309447 | 0.301274491280909 |
18 | 30742 | 30943.3158692665 | 213.941770040189 | -201.315869266538 | -0.502871907000844 |
19 | 31310 | 31170.7751718584 | 218.499799397522 | 139.224828141646 | 0.057433184126269 |
20 | 31381 | 31223.3671993483 | 162.539170526016 | 157.632800651745 | -0.706683206745636 |
21 | 31470 | 31558.1445332407 | 220.677054601602 | -88.1445332407225 | 0.734636757521303 |
22 | 31226 | 31387.7478671986 | 88.630822864254 | -161.747867198606 | -1.66873740076928 |
23 | 31081 | 31192.8057916132 | -7.01679000012729 | -111.805791613217 | -1.20870955964957 |
24 | 31061 | 31025.9858320732 | -60.7364633955012 | 35.0141679267804 | -0.681669535008176 |
25 | 31114 | 31118.5431277041 | -9.17458033242673 | -4.54312770407705 | 0.667213170070226 |
26 | 30828 | 30922.2405160452 | -72.0196421270532 | -94.2405160452136 | -0.787468975070231 |
27 | 30418 | 30505.9314245896 | -185.848338749833 | -87.9314245896289 | -1.42399743668197 |
28 | 30195 | 30182.3792107237 | -231.545449421952 | 12.6207892762570 | -0.582334562156756 |
29 | 29877 | 29903.6335795030 | -247.348888625837 | -26.6335795030399 | -0.200384461419676 |
30 | 29192 | 29474.2476114323 | -308.373187248733 | -282.247611432276 | -0.768536563314524 |
31 | 29876 | 29538.9891794660 | -183.468990414924 | 337.010820534046 | 1.57354403807739 |
32 | 29409 | 29350.1184862488 | -185.276759711418 | 58.8815137512226 | -0.0228176816561006 |
33 | 28458 | 28638.7705933574 | -361.412617010191 | -180.770593357424 | -2.22515972296892 |
34 | 28340 | 28337.9811361967 | -341.116830714749 | 2.01886380326632 | 0.256453293310451 |
35 | 28164 | 28175.7477639450 | -281.308069745666 | -11.7477639450351 | 0.756318845029209 |
36 | 28438 | 28297.0663171147 | -146.845539897833 | 140.933682885279 | 1.70787769093953 |
37 | 28053 | 28049.3665674207 | -180.602859623056 | 3.63343257928044 | -0.430305741362482 |
38 | 27599 | 27645.856288222 | -255.093863319666 | -46.8562882220065 | -0.93750543967464 |
39 | 27226 | 27286.7875299428 | -289.55776432753 | -60.7875299428079 | -0.432883522008801 |
40 | 27119 | 27050.9348063584 | -271.760293849928 | 68.0651936416054 | 0.225823654725565 |
41 | 26625 | 26672.4922305923 | -307.302956533675 | -47.4922305923384 | -0.451044796960724 |
42 | 26541 | 26777.099526657 | -169.785940146996 | -236.099526656986 | 1.73628166490649 |
43 | 27023 | 26661.0145033727 | -151.872400451269 | 361.985496627329 | 0.225817688612905 |
44 | 26631 | 26422.958069467 | -180.60104905316 | 208.041930533002 | -0.36248289620195 |
45 | 26154 | 26323.5026762431 | -153.555466889015 | -169.502676243091 | 0.341553227503716 |
46 | 26029 | 26142.7316996139 | -162.622893656690 | -113.731699613897 | -0.114577876487621 |
47 | 26008 | 26107.9018622941 | -120.079539737631 | -99.9018622940992 | 0.538356921112227 |
48 | 26632 | 26315.6778733876 | -10.9104029941995 | 316.322126612373 | 1.38542830379758 |
49 | 27010 | 26750.8104979997 | 137.862005144066 | 259.189502000304 | 1.88731956683512 |
50 | 27041 | 27023.3869063740 | 182.732391448486 | 17.6130936260493 | 0.565419162152878 |
51 | 27244 | 27287.3208057622 | 209.649665502674 | -43.3208057621617 | 0.338836017499217 |
52 | 26976 | 27081.5859462145 | 72.0876033019442 | -105.58594621454 | -1.74201812991879 |
53 | 26715 | 26962.4719443513 | 8.56889468535878 | -247.471944351268 | -0.805671148517118 |
54 | 27017 | 27168.5432147142 | 74.3147573654074 | -151.543214714203 | 0.831287997757693 |
55 | 27714 | 27306.0925189186 | 95.3583562041105 | 407.907481081378 | 0.265488155779644 |
56 | 27655 | 27439.9359010357 | 108.154237456146 | 215.064098964331 | 0.161431691995990 |
57 | 27103 | 27338.1443926945 | 38.3912689838747 | -235.144392694536 | -0.880788600479137 |
58 | 27088 | 27276.0739319876 | 5.02562760095843 | -188.073931987641 | -0.421668242536758 |
59 | 26968 | 27224.1795054151 | -13.8739147793201 | -256.179505415110 | -0.239236439101584 |
60 | 27770 | 27497.8060074155 | 81.6591018419422 | 272.193992584519 | 1.21123276927662 |
61 | 27616 | 27480.4961718109 | 48.7349271617143 | 135.503828189074 | -0.416863820866641 |
62 | 27481 | 27475.6585174355 | 30.9334259174824 | 5.34148256450683 | -0.224460930549671 |
63 | 27279 | 27259.1910362491 | -51.0181775953889 | 19.8089637508565 | -1.03283995756840 |
64 | 26918 | 27026.6762417456 | -111.080188538592 | -108.676241745629 | -0.759908093071657 |
65 | 26503 | 26845.9197240207 | -134.182259343628 | -342.919724020668 | -0.292829396133781 |
66 | 26547 | 26720.4351493483 | -131.293367897765 | -173.435149348331 | 0.0365501859303891 |
67 | 27467 | 26921.4242579236 | -20.92553380533 | 545.575742076427 | 1.3933213515838 |
68 | 27305 | 26995.4303486074 | 10.5778877407435 | 309.569651392615 | 0.397467970756622 |
69 | 26259 | 26624.1528325546 | -116.033069044342 | -365.152832554619 | -1.59832629851900 |
70 | 26048 | 26300.1312311149 | -184.958543233422 | -252.131231114932 | -0.871155018129837 |
71 | 25743 | 26098.731979908 | -190.407261880979 | -355.731979908003 | -0.0689744663970854 |