| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.316980625774965 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.600837245360393 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 143.6 | 142.513755341880 | 1.08624465811960 |
| 14 | 134.9 | 134.505699144731 | 0.394300855268853 |
| 15 | 135.6 | 135.765810167953 | -0.165810167953197 |
| 16 | 105.3 | 105.610876848531 | -0.310876848530825 |
| 17 | 86.4 | 86.2974602019199 | 0.102539798080130 |
| 18 | 74.6 | 73.8942552893241 | 0.705744710675887 |
| 19 | 67.6 | 72.5822546473935 | -4.98225464739348 |
| 20 | 73.4 | 76.3672684095344 | -2.9672684095344 |
| 21 | 78.5 | 81.5159937702799 | -3.01599377027989 |
| 22 | 98.2 | 92.4034408023518 | 5.7965591976482 |
| 23 | 118.6 | 109.609296388873 | 8.9907036111274 |
| 24 | 136.9 | 128.181800537060 | 8.71819946293971 |
| 25 | 137.9 | 148.180369678706 | -10.2803696787063 |
| 26 | 115.6 | 136.285354650808 | -20.6853546508077 |
| 27 | 119.3 | 130.633762970068 | -11.3337629700679 |
| 28 | 98.5 | 96.8792720136946 | 1.62072798630540 |
| 29 | 84.3 | 78.3477960382321 | 5.95220396176789 |
| 30 | 73.5 | 68.0463666635998 | 5.45363333640022 |
| 31 | 60.7 | 65.9050937623291 | -5.20509376232911 |
| 32 | 69.5 | 70.4463889054797 | -0.946388905479694 |
| 33 | 77.9 | 76.2156978329615 | 1.68430216703848 |
| 34 | 113.9 | 92.2095737613934 | 21.6904262386066 |
| 35 | 126.3 | 115.764301366450 | 10.5356986335498 |
| 36 | 135.1 | 134.714707803197 | 0.38529219680251 |
| 37 | 130.5 | 144.275207878323 | -13.7752078783225 |
| 38 | 113.1 | 127.002362915626 | -13.9023629156255 |
| 39 | 110 | 127.338586931013 | -17.3385869310125 |
| 40 | 90.8 | 96.9969921895486 | -6.19699218954861 |
| 41 | 85.4 | 77.7650165620859 | 7.6349834379141 |
| 42 | 72.5 | 67.79239053091 | 4.70760946909 |
| 43 | 64.7 | 61.0404770052546 | 3.65952299474542 |
| 44 | 67.2 | 70.1393860319418 | -2.93938603194177 |
| 45 | 77.9 | 76.3565456385111 | 1.54345436148887 |
| 46 | 105.2 | 100.515958345942 | 4.68404165405832 |
| 47 | 107.2 | 114.102275597597 | -6.90227559759728 |
| 48 | 120.7 | 123.359622940109 | -2.6596229401093 |
| 49 | 121.3 | 126.143708619721 | -4.8437086197206 |
| 50 | 107.9 | 111.649793554500 | -3.74979355450022 |
| 51 | 105.6 | 113.794015791984 | -8.1940157919841 |
| 52 | 81.3 | 90.9233993479795 | -9.62339934797954 |
| 53 | 71.7 | 76.2817333193824 | -4.58173331938238 |
| 54 | 64.8 | 61.2352988509161 | 3.5647011490839 |
| 55 | 57.3 | 53.690988156794 | 3.60901184320601 |
| 56 | 61.9 | 60.0658028808564 | 1.83419711914360 |
| 57 | 70.1 | 69.6357794998148 | 0.464220500185192 |
| 58 | 88.8 | 94.7419411228185 | -5.94194112281848 |
| 59 | 106.8 | 100.205194517947 | 6.59480548205279 |
| 60 | 110.7 | 115.481969626421 | -4.78196962642106 |
| 61 | 114.1 | 116.696999844925 | -2.59699984492451 |
| 62 | 108 | 103.364172603638 | 4.63582739636243 |
| 63 | 111.5 | 106.342638832871 | 5.15736116712863 |
| 64 | 86.8 | 87.117554815307 | -0.317554815307091 |
| 65 | 78.4 | 77.4946776565126 | 0.905322343487413 |
| 66 | 68 | 67.5306956470861 | 0.46930435291388 |
| 67 | 57.3 | 59.0233885163179 | -1.72338851631790 |
| 68 | 65.3 | 62.9795809958962 | 2.32041900410375 |
| 69 | 73.3 | 72.1414647607161 | 1.15853523928389 |
| 70 | 88.6 | 94.8387278081597 | -6.2387278081597 |
| 71 | 101.3 | 105.352779265323 | -4.05277926532256 |
| 72 | 122.9 | 112.585635744930 | 10.3143642550704 |
| 73 | 126.6 | 119.482586825273 | 7.11741317472689 |
| 74 | 114.1 | 112.197273110716 | 1.90272688928439 |
| 75 | 124.7 | 114.523428274349 | 10.1765717256512 |
| 76 | 93.3 | 94.6425216905708 | -1.34252169057078 |
| 77 | 77.2 | 85.1965984734846 | -7.99659847348461 |
| 78 | 66.5 | 72.23194545287 | -5.73194545287001 |
| 79 | 57.9 | 60.8591173492844 | -2.95911734928442 |
| 80 | 63.7 | 66.0831195301012 | -2.38311953010123 |
| 81 | 65.8 | 73.277254805 | -7.47725480500002 |
| 82 | 85 | 90.2014251731632 | -5.20142517316324 |
| 83 | 101 | 101.941358637347 | -0.94135863734678 |
| 84 | 105.3 | 116.056513520694 | -10.7565135206938 |
| 85 | 121 | 114.962428670426 | 6.03757132957429 |
| 86 | 117.9 | 105.194804910582 | 12.7051950894179 |
| 87 | 106 | 114.340582435652 | -8.34058243565171 |
| 88 | 86.6 | 83.8628511032936 | 2.73714889670643 |
| 89 | 79.9 | 72.9793812399695 | 6.92061876003049 |
| 90 | 65.2 | 65.6725732589468 | -0.472573258946824 |
| 91 | 61.2 | 57.1047870893277 | 4.09521291067226 |
| 92 | 67.6 | 64.8012552794959 | 2.79874472050409 |
| 93 | 78.9 | 71.5473921689054 | 7.35260783109459 |
| 94 | 95.5 | 94.1063045583064 | 1.39369544169355 |
| 95 | 113.1 | 109.685024409225 | 3.41497559077521 |
| 96 | 124.4 | 121.153075431026 | 3.24692456897415 |
| 97 | 122 | 131.389824122558 | -9.38982412255803 |
| 98 | 110.3 | 119.468297535695 | -9.16829753569536 |
| 99 | 114 | 113.043762274479 | 0.956237725521177 |
| 100 | 93.3 | 90.0590607418619 | 3.24093925813813 |
| 101 | 75.5 | 81.0521095807769 | -5.55210958077686 |
| 102 | 65.4 | 66.7576445010084 | -1.35764450100837 |
| 103 | 59.2 | 59.7838518763816 | -0.583851876381573 |
| 104 | 63.8 | 65.4650980555767 | -1.66509805557668 |
| 105 | 74.2 | 72.6651134562123 | 1.53488654378775 |
| 106 | 91.7 | 90.9344817119508 | 0.765518288049208 |
| 107 | 107 | 107.143581555905 | -0.143581555904632 |
| 108 | 120.7 | 117.414673543462 | 3.28532645653773 |
| 109 | 127.4 | 122.477681993805 | 4.92231800619484 |
| 110 | 119.7 | 115.183738026577 | 4.5162619734228 |
| 111 | 112.7 | 117.251885009185 | -4.55188500918538 |
| 112 | 84.4 | 93.458819049478 | -9.05881904947807 |
| 113 | 75.6 | 76.9445608266687 | -1.34456082666867 |
| 114 | 66.5 | 65.7051463573496 | 0.794853642650367 |
| 115 | 59.9 | 59.731205650859 | 0.168794349140995 |
| 116 | 64.8 | 65.2073005325693 | -0.407300532569323 |
| 117 | 74.3 | 74.1192341928584 | 0.180765807141555 |
| 118 | 100.4 | 91.6436363884385 | 8.75636361156154 |
| 119 | 105.9 | 110.012599826484 | -4.11259982648355 |
| 120 | 131.1 | 120.432757119394 | 10.6672428806060 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 128.507484345050 | 115.750275241454 | 141.264693448647 |
| 122 | 119.486622248420 | 106.103849497187 | 132.869394999654 |
| 123 | 116.401783974666 | 102.421410985742 | 130.382156963590 |
| 124 | 92.2020061010276 | 77.6485511398265 | 106.755461062229 |
| 125 | 81.7250221392856 | 66.6202125176459 | 96.8298317609254 |
| 126 | 71.7897877558599 | 56.1530522876026 | 87.4265232241172 |
| 127 | 65.3069694531807 | 49.1558172186641 | 81.4581216876973 |
| 128 | 70.4931399744884 | 53.8434570675738 | 87.142822881403 |
| 129 | 79.7755127230415 | 62.641798493515 | 96.909226952568 |
| 130 | 100.761899324329 | 83.1574571094403 | 118.366341539218 |
| 131 | 111.074055154101 | 93.01114818718 | 129.136962121021 |
| 132 | 128.863230187763 | 110.353210455361 | 147.373249920165 |
