Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[96])
84	93.77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
85	94.71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
86	94.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
87	94.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
88	94.88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
89	94.79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
90	93.43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	94.37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	94.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	94.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	94.37	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
95	94.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
96	92.66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	93.51	93.5425	92.5626	94.5477	0.4748	0.9573	0.0114	0.9573
98	93.6	93.5246	92.4234	94.6579	0.4481	0.5101	0.0291	0.9326
99	93.6	93.5783	92.3664	94.8292	0.4865	0.4865	0.0288	0.9249
100	93.77	93.6562	92.3419	95.0164	0.4349	0.5323	0.0389	0.9244
101	93.6	93.5893	92.1848	95.0463	0.4943	0.404	0.0531	0.8944
102	92.41	92.2143	90.7749	93.7098	0.3988	0.0347	0.0556	0.2796
103	93.6	93.1443	91.5897	94.7638	0.2906	0.8129	0.069	0.7211
104	93.34	93.1672	91.5354	94.8707	0.4212	0.3093	0.0473	0.7203
105	92.92	93.1055	91.4035	94.8855	0.4191	0.3981	0.0694	0.6881
106	92.07	93.0152	91.2479	94.8669	0.1585	0.5401	0.0758	0.6465
107	91.89	92.8197	90.9951	94.7348	0.1707	0.7786	0.0789	0.5649
108	90.27	91.2056	89.3941	93.1079	0.1675	0.2404	0.067	0.067
109	91.72	92.1265	90.0471	94.325	0.3585	0.951	0.1087	0.3172
110	91.98	92.1092	89.9118	94.4402	0.4567	0.6283	0.105	0.3216
111	91.81	92.161	89.8481	94.6222	0.3899	0.5573	0.1259	0.3455
112	91.98	92.2361	89.8118	94.8237	0.4231	0.6266	0.1227	0.3741
113	91.3	92.1716	89.6493	94.8712	0.2634	0.5553	0.1499	0.3614
114	89.93	90.8456	88.3136	93.5592	0.2542	0.3714	0.1292	0.095
115	90.87	91.7425	89.0586	94.6292	0.2768	0.8908	0.1036	0.2667
116	90.53	91.7647	88.9898	94.7566	0.2093	0.7211	0.151	0.2788
117	90.27	91.7051	88.8484	94.7926	0.1811	0.7722	0.2203	0.2722
118	90.1	91.6181	88.6846	94.7957	0.1745	0.7972	0.3902	0.2602
119	89.68	91.4296	88.43	94.6855	0.1461	0.7883	0.3908	0.2294
120	87.89	89.8722	86.9163	93.0814	0.113	0.5467	0.404	0.0443

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
97	0.0055	-3e-04	0	0.0011	0	0
98	0.0062	8e-04	6e-04	0.0057	0.0034	0.058
99	0.0068	2e-04	5e-04	5e-04	0.0024	0.049
100	0.0074	0.0012	6e-04	0.0129	0.005	0.071
101	0.0079	1e-04	5e-04	1e-04	0.0041	0.0637
102	0.0083	0.0021	8e-04	0.0383	0.0098	0.0988
103	0.0089	0.0049	0.0014	0.2077	0.038	0.195
104	0.0093	0.0019	0.0014	0.0298	0.037	0.1924
105	0.0098	-0.002	0.0015	0.0344	0.0367	0.1916
106	0.0102	-0.0102	0.0024	0.8934	0.1224	0.3498
107	0.0105	-0.01	0.0031	0.8644	0.1898	0.4357
108	0.0106	-0.0103	0.0037	0.8754	0.247	0.497
109	0.0122	-0.0044	0.0037	0.1652	0.2407	0.4906
110	0.0129	-0.0014	0.0036	0.0167	0.2247	0.474
111	0.0136	-0.0038	0.0036	0.1232	0.2179	0.4668
112	0.0143	-0.0028	0.0035	0.0656	0.2084	0.4565
113	0.0149	-0.0095	0.0039	0.7597	0.2408	0.4907
114	0.0152	-0.0101	0.0042	0.8383	0.274	0.5235
115	0.0161	-0.0095	0.0045	0.7613	0.2997	0.5474
116	0.0166	-0.0135	0.0049	1.5244	0.3609	0.6008
117	0.0172	-0.0156	0.0055	2.0595	0.4418	0.6647
118	0.0177	-0.0166	0.006	2.3045	0.5265	0.7256
119	0.0182	-0.0191	0.0065	3.061	0.6367	0.7979
120	0.0182	-0.0221	0.0072	3.929	0.7738	0.8797