| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0531970593633077 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1615 | 1538.19070512821 | 76.8092948717931 |
| 14 | 2350 | 2260.40115099657 | 89.5988490034279 |
| 15 | 3350 | 3281.00029686864 | 68.9997031313578 |
| 16 | 3536 | 3536.96196208825 | -0.96196208825495 |
| 17 | 5834 | 5834.82687245003 | -0.826872450025803 |
| 18 | 6767 | 6774.6989691833 | -7.69896918329869 |
| 19 | 5993 | 6672.4554905787 | -679.455490578703 |
| 20 | 7276 | 6147.89320709441 | 1128.10679290559 |
| 21 | 5641 | 7097.90458837418 | -1456.90458837418 |
| 22 | 3477 | 3522.10929908251 | -45.1092990825127 |
| 23 | 2247 | 2046.87570093747 | 200.124299062532 |
| 24 | 2466 | 2648.06280907082 | -182.062809070821 |
| 25 | 1567 | 1523.35028651109 | 43.6497134889078 |
| 26 | 2237 | 2255.90592762143 | -18.9059276214339 |
| 27 | 2598 | 3251.22960656391 | -653.229606563909 |
| 28 | 3729 | 3402.53088595997 | 326.469114040027 |
| 29 | 5715 | 5717.94206998266 | -2.9420699826569 |
| 30 | 5776 | 6651.19512303182 | -875.195123031818 |
| 31 | 5852 | 5866.78235018446 | -14.7823501844578 |
| 32 | 6878 | 7088.98400859382 | -210.984008593817 |
| 33 | 5488 | 5520.26331963836 | -32.2633196383595 |
| 34 | 3583 | 3356.94668796943 | 226.05331203057 |
| 35 | 2054 | 2128.32603521152 | -74.3260352115221 |
| 36 | 2282 | 2353.05731476613 | -71.0573147661262 |
| 37 | 1552 | 1447.95523817465 | 104.044761825346 |
| 38 | 2261 | 2124.49585329991 | 136.504146700086 |
| 39 | 2446 | 2527.50736665351 | -81.5073666535072 |
| 40 | 3519 | 3636.80421759122 | -117.80421759122 |
| 41 | 5161 | 5616.69388910629 | -455.693889106289 |
| 42 | 5085 | 5700.01012115041 | -615.010121150406 |
| 43 | 5711 | 5744.07976878683 | -33.0797687868253 |
| 44 | 6057 | 6779.54375119282 | -722.543751192821 |
| 45 | 5224 | 5352.82286209809 | -128.822862098089 |
| 46 | 3363 | 3428.94449319634 | -65.9444931963435 |
| 47 | 1899 | 1900.39036658448 | -1.3903665844814 |
| 48 | 2115 | 2132.09644336256 | -17.0964433625609 |
| 49 | 1491 | 1395.65208747884 | 95.3479125211634 |
| 50 | 2061 | 2102.46269684605 | -41.4626968460502 |
| 51 | 2419 | 2289.59295552298 | 129.407044477019 |
| 52 | 3430 | 3375.7438677065 | 54.2561322934962 |
| 53 | 4778 | 5044.87170926723 | -266.871709267229 |
| 54 | 4862 | 4987.39164903083 | -125.391649030826 |
| 55 | 6176 | 5608.48092845755 | 567.519071542454 |
| 56 | 5664 | 6023.10847702099 | -359.108477020991 |
| 57 | 5529 | 5177.85795949342 | 351.142040506578 |
| 58 | 3418 | 3339.04573658645 | 78.9542634135478 |
| 59 | 1941 | 1879.31983463798 | 61.6801653620196 |
| 60 | 2402 | 2099.51051856874 | 302.489481431258 |
| 61 | 1579 | 1486.52984090666 | 92.4701590933391 |
| 62 | 2146 | 2063.65467499477 | 82.3453250052339 |
| 63 | 2462 | 2419.15112991029 | 42.8488700897142 |
| 64 | 3695 | 3429.54429710566 | 265.455702894341 |
| 65 | 4831 | 4805.86255005113 | 25.1374499488666 |
| 66 | 5134 | 4897.87025546546 | 236.129744534538 |
| 67 | 6250 | 6194.24131776426 | 55.7586822357443 |
| 68 | 5760 | 5704.31103066312 | 55.6889693368776 |
| 69 | 6249 | 5553.59379609704 | 695.406203902963 |
| 70 | 2917 | 3475.38722656988 | -558.387226569878 |
| 71 | 1741 | 1965.40146471203 | -224.401464712025 |
| 72 | 2359 | 2398.37241577205 | -39.3724157720517 |
| 73 | 1511 | 1568.35877849033 | -57.3587784903261 |
| 74 | 2059 | 2127.92693100338 | -68.9269310033751 |
| 75 | 2635 | 2437.98078707724 | 197.019212922755 |
| 76 | 2867 | 3667.34016705761 | -800.34016705761 |
| 77 | 4403 | 4759.42718526263 | -356.427185262634 |
| 78 | 5720 | 5030.90489909207 | 689.095100907925 |
| 79 | 4502 | 6180.59653415312 | -1678.59653415312 |
| 80 | 5749 | 5598.33764527104 | 150.662354728958 |
| 81 | 5627 | 6058.35887438874 | -431.358874388736 |
| 82 | 2846 | 2733.11640918054 | 112.883590819461 |
| 83 | 1762 | 1575.058982302 | 186.941017697995 |
| 84 | 2429 | 2205.09819145702 | 223.901808542976 |
| 85 | 1169 | 1372.06042760199 | -203.060427601994 |
| 86 | 2154 | 1912.92492002083 | 241.075079979171 |
| 87 | 2249 | 2491.26856259593 | -242.268562595932 |
| 88 | 2687 | 2752.95633086746 | -65.956330867456 |
| 89 | 4359 | 4304.40852615203 | 54.5914738479732 |
| 90 | 5382 | 5587.65479903709 | -205.654799037085 |
| 91 | 4459 | 4448.01096795875 | 10.9890320412542 |
| 92 | 6398 | 5687.58075792026 | 710.419242079743 |
| 93 | 4596 | 5626.31999616176 | -1030.31999616176 |
| 94 | 3024 | 2784.50492708077 | 239.495072919229 |
| 95 | 1887 | 1703.30064827616 | 183.699351723842 |
| 96 | 2070 | 2368.1619957942 | -298.161995794199 |
| 97 | 1351 | 1103.10287202553 | 247.897127974465 |
| 98 | 2218 | 2088.46578491772 | 129.53421508228 |
| 99 | 2461 | 2203.24459935331 | 257.75540064669 |
| 100 | 3028 | 2658.46511155127 | 369.534888448733 |
| 101 | 4784 | 4347.21917507387 | 436.780824926133 |
| 102 | 4975 | 5404.39486109894 | -429.394861098941 |
| 103 | 4607 | 4457.96773299292 | 149.032267007082 |
| 104 | 6249 | 6367.10359675419 | -118.10359675419 |
| 105 | 4809 | 4613.63082670566 | 195.369173294343 |
| 106 | 3157 | 3039.28345860385 | 117.716541396147 |
| 107 | 1910 | 1898.77336712589 | 11.226632874108 |
| 108 | 2228 | 2098.23193237149 | 129.768067628508 |
| 109 | 1594 | 1372.94781373574 | 221.052186264263 |
| 110 | 2467 | 2244.81630068151 | 222.183699318486 |
| 111 | 2222 | 2485.9239907743 | -263.923990774304 |
| 112 | 3607 | 3019.22584117206 | 587.774158827938 |
| 113 | 4685 | 4783.2582425191 | -98.2582425190994 |
| 114 | 4962 | 4991.87373687506 | -29.8737368750571 |
| 115 | 5770 | 4614.35646356609 | 1155.64353643391 |
| 116 | 5480 | 6324.11606542414 | -844.116065424137 |
| 117 | 5000 | 4828.81850747275 | 171.181492527252 |
| 118 | 3228 | 3179.66268565193 | 48.3373143480749 |
| 119 | 1993 | 1934.63686477731 | 58.3631352226917 |
| 120 | 2288 | 2248.83833234928 | 39.1616676507169 |
| 121 | 1588 | 1605.16229163298 | -17.1622916329752 |
| 122 | 2105 | 2465.42978874396 | -360.429788743961 |
| 123 | 2191 | 2215.29596408047 | -24.2959640804656 |
| 124 | 3591 | 3567.7356334176 | 23.2643665823998 |
| 125 | 4668 | 4652.20027886796 | 15.7997211320435 |
| 126 | 4885 | 4931.62997252489 | -46.6299725248882 |
| 127 | 5822 | 5675.67255729787 | 146.327442702125 |
| 128 | 5599 | 5438.36123939567 | 160.63876060433 |
| 129 | 5340 | 4957.80039705972 | 382.199602940284 |
| 130 | 3082 | 3203.56088904513 | -121.560889045125 |
| 131 | 2010 | 1958.98946004527 | 51.0105399547347 |
| 132 | 2301 | 2254.61978520861 | 46.3802147913898 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 1558.00005969496 | 787.686993262783 | 2328.31312612714 |
| 134 | 2094.17386456308 | 1322.77160325135 | 2865.57612587481 |
| 135 | 2181.46633840655 | 1408.97641795609 | 2953.95625885702 |
| 136 | 3580.22874251642 | 2806.65269219023 | 4353.80479284261 |
| 137 | 4656.38824381344 | 3881.72758644211 | 5431.04890118476 |
| 138 | 4875.86882122995 | 4100.12507325664 | 5651.61256920326 |
| 139 | 5805.08463157405 | 5028.25930309898 | 6581.90996004911 |
| 140 | 5573.53912189013 | 4795.63371671473 | 6351.44452706553 |
| 141 | 5294.20722692388 | 4515.22324259442 | 6073.19121125335 |
| 142 | 3042.67390875467 | 2262.6128366055 | 3822.73498090384 |
| 143 | 1967.96029803255 | 1186.82362322895 | 2749.09697283614 |
| 144 | 2256.49300699301 | 1474.28220857359 | 3038.70380541242 |
