| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.121313434871579 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.727613202056801 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 614 | 647.620192307693 | -33.6201923076928 |
| 14 | 647 | 666.82278845398 | -19.8227884539805 |
| 15 | 580 | 581.282528387406 | -1.28252838740593 |
| 16 | 614 | 613.033117619586 | 0.966882380413608 |
| 17 | 636 | 637.014923931782 | -1.01492393178171 |
| 18 | 388 | 383.964643846328 | 4.03535615367218 |
| 19 | 356 | 400.360363918437 | -44.3603639184371 |
| 20 | 639 | 357.218366288849 | 281.781633711151 |
| 21 | 753 | 673.475107980917 | 79.5248920190827 |
| 22 | 611 | 712.653722945721 | -101.653722945721 |
| 23 | 639 | 650.144604470535 | -11.1446044705352 |
| 24 | 630 | 565.865458044773 | 64.1345419552268 |
| 25 | 586 | 669.890483722475 | -83.8904837224753 |
| 26 | 695 | 691.815904759382 | 3.18409524061758 |
| 27 | 552 | 620.920291796552 | -68.920291796552 |
| 28 | 619 | 645.90365877734 | -26.9036587773400 |
| 29 | 681 | 665.237338143583 | 15.7626618564166 |
| 30 | 421 | 417.451270613437 | 3.54872938656263 |
| 31 | 307 | 402.846445716454 | -95.8464457164538 |
| 32 | 754 | 561.975406134494 | 192.024593865506 |
| 33 | 690 | 738.031789830672 | -48.0317898306716 |
| 34 | 644 | 645.900615091595 | -1.90061509159455 |
| 35 | 643 | 653.359345657001 | -10.3593456570012 |
| 36 | 608 | 617.304728146627 | -9.3047281466271 |
| 37 | 651 | 617.781679800204 | 33.2183201997957 |
| 38 | 691 | 709.584576940514 | -18.5845769405137 |
| 39 | 627 | 589.948628304088 | 37.0513716959123 |
| 40 | 634 | 654.650861703136 | -20.6508617031362 |
| 41 | 731 | 702.021543123609 | 28.9784568763912 |
| 42 | 475 | 448.029825309511 | 26.9701746904890 |
| 43 | 337 | 372.718633002093 | -35.7186330020926 |
| 44 | 803 | 723.190511083501 | 79.809488916499 |
| 45 | 722 | 732.155099517306 | -10.1550995173059 |
| 46 | 590 | 674.11256343875 | -84.1125634387495 |
| 47 | 724 | 666.189841991122 | 57.8101580088784 |
| 48 | 627 | 639.079364443766 | -12.0793644437661 |
| 49 | 696 | 666.40656893179 | 29.5934310682096 |
| 50 | 825 | 724.649849687071 | 100.350150312929 |
| 51 | 677 | 655.012788238624 | 21.9872117613761 |
| 52 | 656 | 680.995963101049 | -24.9959631010490 |
| 53 | 785 | 759.569729687146 | 25.4302703128540 |
| 54 | 412 | 503.863586117536 | -91.8635861175355 |
| 55 | 352 | 374.056552474132 | -22.0565524741315 |
| 56 | 839 | 800.048029727487 | 38.9519702725128 |
| 57 | 729 | 746.537737331535 | -17.5377373315350 |
| 58 | 696 | 640.315331336555 | 55.6846686634447 |
| 59 | 641 | 740.089324952775 | -99.089324952775 |
| 60 | 695 | 649.261389180738 | 45.7386108192617 |
| 61 | 638 | 710.245940337771 | -72.2459403377711 |
| 62 | 762 | 801.372617178017 | -39.3726171780174 |
| 63 | 635 | 664.684436579969 | -29.6844365799691 |
| 64 | 721 | 654.360737919369 | 66.639262080631 |
| 65 | 854 | 776.2907954428 | 77.7092045571995 |
| 66 | 418 | 451.935672033139 | -33.9356720331388 |
| 67 | 367 | 373.786776918547 | -6.78677691854745 |
| 68 | 824 | 840.636112721433 | -16.6361127214334 |
| 69 | 687 | 744.265886513551 | -57.2658865135514 |
| 70 | 601 | 680.038224210279 | -79.038224210279 |
| 71 | 676 | 664.514705234317 | 11.4852947656833 |
| 72 | 740 | 679.695820229922 | 60.3041797700785 |
| 73 | 691 | 667.014662171078 | 23.9853378289220 |
| 74 | 683 | 790.832846030486 | -107.832846030486 |
| 75 | 594 | 652.033599524172 | -58.0335995241725 |
| 76 | 729 | 699.854740054528 | 29.1452599454718 |
| 77 | 731 | 824.313772088603 | -93.313772088603 |
| 78 | 386 | 407.831788073037 | -21.8317880730366 |
| 79 | 331 | 348.508738408874 | -17.5087384088740 |
| 80 | 706 | 807.760243024426 | -101.760243024426 |
| 81 | 715 | 675.086916307864 | 39.9130836921358 |
| 82 | 657 | 608.728356397025 | 48.2716436029752 |
| 83 | 653 | 666.524898539208 | -13.5248985392084 |
| 84 | 642 | 709.883999619971 | -67.883999619971 |
| 85 | 643 | 658.431661515548 | -15.4316615155482 |
| 86 | 718 | 693.190876066811 | 24.8091239331891 |
| 87 | 654 | 602.321729277115 | 51.678270722885 |
| 88 | 632 | 719.189669589688 | -87.1896695896876 |
| 89 | 731 | 751.242271053243 | -20.2422710532435 |
| 90 | 392 | 389.326415494836 | 2.67358450516389 |
| 91 | 344 | 335.740112378772 | 8.25988762122779 |
| 92 | 792 | 744.25200817518 | 47.7479918248206 |
| 93 | 852 | 720.294022610471 | 131.705977389529 |
| 94 | 649 | 670.41516860093 | -21.4151686009303 |
| 95 | 629 | 680.24851913296 | -51.2485191329597 |
| 96 | 685 | 684.277076078083 | 0.7229239219173 |
| 97 | 617 | 674.682764306154 | -57.6827643061538 |
| 98 | 715 | 730.044054979828 | -15.0440549798276 |
| 99 | 715 | 651.518808479866 | 63.4811915201341 |
| 100 | 629 | 681.034224826663 | -52.0342248266631 |
| 101 | 916 | 760.154067953868 | 155.845932046132 |
| 102 | 531 | 434.251190655471 | 96.7488093445294 |
| 103 | 357 | 395.649045274614 | -38.6490452746141 |
| 104 | 917 | 823.716737627526 | 93.283262372474 |
| 105 | 828 | 858.960821867563 | -30.9608218675631 |
| 106 | 708 | 691.451222120707 | 16.5487778792930 |
| 107 | 858 | 686.816337372139 | 171.183662627861 |
| 108 | 775 | 751.056533756071 | 23.9434662439289 |
| 109 | 785 | 706.937862595599 | 78.0621374044014 |
| 110 | 1006 | 806.02763420346 | 199.972365796539 |
| 111 | 789 | 803.791409161267 | -14.7914091612669 |
| 112 | 734 | 749.957225437861 | -15.9572254378614 |
| 113 | 906 | 966.360612916558 | -60.360612916558 |
| 114 | 532 | 576.445589425618 | -44.445589425618 |
| 115 | 387 | 434.148867993739 | -47.1488679937387 |
| 116 | 991 | 945.535539734794 | 45.4644602652058 |
| 117 | 841 | 895.543857846838 | -54.5438578468385 |
| 118 | 892 | 755.54829394039 | 136.451706059609 |
| 119 | 782 | 864.324122550107 | -82.324122550107 |
| 120 | 813 | 803.673290690838 | 9.32670930916152 |
| 121 | 793 | 792.38185527175 | 0.618144728250172 |
| 122 | 978 | 960.019196505357 | 17.9808034946434 |
| 123 | 775 | 798.397030742782 | -23.3970307427824 |
| 124 | 797 | 742.773511928395 | 54.2264880716049 |
| 125 | 946 | 939.302089831546 | 6.6979101684542 |
| 126 | 594 | 567.697340021025 | 26.3026599789748 |
| 127 | 438 | 432.255006950696 | 5.74499304930379 |
| 128 | 1022 | 1009.27018533099 | 12.7298146690063 |
| 129 | 868 | 891.36763848615 | -23.3676384861495 |
| 130 | 795 | 877.266026191264 | -82.2660261912636 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 131 | 819.635454044015 | 689.008340930445 | 950.262567157586 |
| 132 | 827.568048691115 | 695.983230021659 | 959.15286736057 |
| 133 | 809.577390092995 | 677.041786091045 | 942.112994094944 |
| 134 | 988.240452822233 | 854.760835831288 | 1121.72006981318 |
| 135 | 797.982306238411 | 663.565305915024 | 932.399306561798 |
| 136 | 794.825288352778 | 659.477396607744 | 930.17318009781 |
| 137 | 954.388356217866 | 818.115931921117 | 1090.66078051461 |
| 138 | 594.505238007991 | 457.314511471533 | 731.695964544449 |
| 139 | 442.728619029250 | 304.625696281435 | 580.831541777066 |
| 140 | 1023.51255598068 | 884.503422844126 | 1162.52168911724 |
| 141 | 880.987023479102 | 741.077549463706 | 1020.8964974945 |
| 142 | 832.063892109122 | 691.259834130835 | 972.86795008741 |
