| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.100728105613193 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.706402297696408 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 614 | 651.525172725983 | -37.5251727259829 |
| 14 | 647 | 670.684799400148 | -23.6847994001478 |
| 15 | 580 | 582.366193489376 | -2.36619348937563 |
| 16 | 614 | 614.082108335153 | -0.0821083351529523 |
| 17 | 636 | 638.174882180815 | -2.17488218081451 |
| 18 | 388 | 385.959140339202 | 2.04085966079765 |
| 19 | 356 | 394.926976308915 | -38.9269763089152 |
| 20 | 639 | 352.672465590974 | 286.327534409026 |
| 21 | 753 | 693.557227890671 | 59.4427721093285 |
| 22 | 611 | 732.547969407503 | -121.547969407503 |
| 23 | 639 | 664.801621910674 | -25.8016219106745 |
| 24 | 630 | 570.204342613149 | 59.795657386851 |
| 25 | 586 | 684.778644320277 | -98.7786443202771 |
| 26 | 695 | 708.953919341885 | -13.9539193418846 |
| 27 | 552 | 629.015895313806 | -77.0158953138058 |
| 28 | 619 | 656.890366325891 | -37.8903663258913 |
| 29 | 681 | 677.18892234409 | 3.81107765590946 |
| 30 | 421 | 412.132031059866 | 8.86796894013384 |
| 31 | 307 | 394.297058880402 | -87.2970588804023 |
| 32 | 754 | 548.078347243632 | 205.921652756368 |
| 33 | 690 | 738.007640476895 | -48.0076404768953 |
| 34 | 644 | 650.364283790538 | -6.36428379053825 |
| 35 | 643 | 655.016731898568 | -12.0167318985677 |
| 36 | 608 | 615.297809380185 | -7.29780938018473 |
| 37 | 651 | 621.45786180542 | 29.5421381945806 |
| 38 | 691 | 714.167953646476 | -23.1679536464757 |
| 39 | 627 | 590.361326062452 | 36.6386739375477 |
| 40 | 634 | 656.629737764733 | -22.6297377647328 |
| 41 | 731 | 706.927738944956 | 24.0722610550442 |
| 42 | 475 | 435.746172981773 | 39.2538270182273 |
| 43 | 337 | 354.502513101708 | -17.5025131017079 |
| 44 | 803 | 720.352028684078 | 82.647971315922 |
| 45 | 722 | 736.604638027393 | -14.6046380273928 |
| 46 | 590 | 676.10183672607 | -86.1018367260698 |
| 47 | 724 | 669.123010458944 | 54.8769895410561 |
| 48 | 627 | 637.505502594523 | -10.505502594523 |
| 49 | 696 | 667.903375102016 | 28.0966248979839 |
| 50 | 825 | 729.271384717009 | 95.7286152829913 |
| 51 | 677 | 650.188277027583 | 26.8117229724173 |
| 52 | 656 | 679.113810957953 | -23.1138109579528 |
| 53 | 785 | 763.609137573266 | 21.3908624267337 |
| 54 | 412 | 486.525784079443 | -74.5257840794429 |
| 55 | 352 | 353.932010390557 | -1.93201039055725 |
| 56 | 839 | 799.58096909401 | 39.4190309059899 |
| 57 | 729 | 748.091207851041 | -19.0912078510413 |
| 58 | 696 | 638.025230518301 | 57.9747694816986 |
| 59 | 641 | 739.369895717159 | -98.3698957171586 |
| 60 | 695 | 648.518206853014 | 46.4817931469859 |
| 61 | 638 | 711.124747901819 | -73.1247479018185 |
| 62 | 762 | 806.64707788869 | -44.64707788869 |
| 63 | 635 | 669.168037572516 | -34.1680375725161 |
| 64 | 721 | 660.229436337253 | 60.7705636627469 |
| 65 | 854 | 782.134785031731 | 71.8652149682692 |
| 66 | 418 | 444.066913202401 | -26.0669132024013 |
| 67 | 367 | 360.664586686199 | 6.33541331380138 |
| 68 | 824 | 845.017958361628 | -21.0179583616283 |
| 69 | 687 | 748.612709808728 | -61.6127098087283 |
| 70 | 601 | 682.190300654261 | -81.1903006542611 |
| 71 | 676 | 669.410901471898 | 6.58909852810211 |
| 72 | 740 | 680.98018402519 | 59.0198159748098 |
| 73 | 691 | 668.260798330375 | 22.7392016696249 |
| 74 | 683 | 793.770722055046 | -110.770722055046 |
| 75 | 594 | 654.717447856971 | -60.7174478569707 |
| 76 | 729 | 703.435798355649 | 25.564201644351 |
| 77 | 731 | 828.604696928258 | -97.6046969282577 |
| 78 | 386 | 419.108486405942 | -33.1084864059417 |
| 79 | 331 | 356.880824472789 | -25.8808244727888 |
| 80 | 706 | 806.5251716464 | -100.525171646401 |
| 81 | 715 | 680.869110641995 | 34.1308893580053 |
| 82 | 657 | 613.040899260461 | 43.9591007395389 |
| 83 | 653 | 668.228632670744 | -15.2286326707435 |
| 84 | 642 | 710.107472507583 | -68.1074725075835 |
| 85 | 643 | 662.749894114399 | -19.7498941143987 |
| 86 | 718 | 696.896524087989 | 21.1034759120112 |
| 87 | 654 | 604.375117566558 | 49.624882433442 |
| 88 | 632 | 718.842688245944 | -86.8426882459437 |
| 89 | 731 | 752.99602607945 | -21.9960260794497 |
| 90 | 392 | 394.765325432344 | -2.76532543234441 |
| 91 | 344 | 340.100045600303 | 3.8999543996967 |
| 92 | 792 | 747.68238166773 | 44.3176183322699 |
| 93 | 852 | 721.199203322578 | 130.800796677422 |
| 94 | 649 | 666.471440466248 | -17.4714404662477 |
| 95 | 629 | 678.199883454367 | -49.199883454367 |
| 96 | 685 | 682.839299327259 | 2.16070067274075 |
| 97 | 617 | 672.847062803514 | -55.8470628035141 |
| 98 | 715 | 731.041817232163 | -16.0418172321632 |
| 99 | 715 | 650.772655258232 | 64.2273447417683 |
| 100 | 629 | 679.867208951556 | -50.8672089515558 |
| 101 | 916 | 761.290149999896 | 154.709850000104 |
| 102 | 531 | 414.330995039189 | 116.669004960811 |
| 103 | 357 | 371.603349387028 | -14.6033493870279 |
| 104 | 917 | 836.962376447361 | 80.0376235526387 |
| 105 | 828 | 869.245091697302 | -41.2450916973019 |
| 106 | 708 | 693.441293776717 | 14.5587062232828 |
| 107 | 858 | 687.486984844789 | 170.513015155211 |
| 108 | 775 | 750.861332399602 | 24.1386676003976 |
| 109 | 785 | 701.03140276128 | 83.9685972387201 |
| 110 | 1006 | 809.343633894797 | 196.656366105203 |
| 111 | 789 | 796.57032178313 | -7.57032178312954 |
| 112 | 734 | 737.773987383306 | -3.77398738330567 |
| 113 | 906 | 984.09426384761 | -78.0942638476107 |
| 114 | 532 | 542.458664190362 | -10.4586641903621 |
| 115 | 387 | 392.075888372369 | -5.07588837236949 |
| 116 | 991 | 962.677697694665 | 28.322302305335 |
| 117 | 841 | 908.330735465524 | -67.3307354655235 |
| 118 | 892 | 755.047910374334 | 136.952089625666 |
| 119 | 782 | 865.880879179644 | -83.8808791796441 |
| 120 | 813 | 807.95388326262 | 5.04611673738043 |
| 121 | 793 | 792.723487392503 | 0.276512607497125 |
| 122 | 978 | 967.742541741162 | 10.2574582588376 |
| 123 | 775 | 803.9309183551 | -28.9309183550996 |
| 124 | 797 | 744.67136301732 | 52.3286369826798 |
| 125 | 946 | 953.043956280599 | -7.04395628059876 |
| 126 | 594 | 550.643450395871 | 43.3565496041286 |
| 127 | 438 | 403.543542647334 | 34.4564573526662 |
| 128 | 1022 | 1027.68207330509 | -5.68207330508676 |
| 129 | 868 | 903.510592234765 | -35.5105922347655 |
| 130 | 795 | 880.689443126828 | -85.6894431268275 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 131 | 827.429548585132 | 730.229994148165 | 924.6291030221 |
| 132 | 834.599505198186 | 736.481453704931 | 932.71755669144 |
| 133 | 815.2589480673 | 716.331868304118 | 914.186027830481 |
| 134 | 1001.63937840422 | 900.527979785676 | 1102.75077702276 |
| 135 | 806.666389269466 | 706.34963912771 | 906.983139411222 |
| 136 | 801.510713192643 | 700.379589898783 | 902.641836486502 |
| 137 | 970.7218365002 | 866.57756163545 | 1074.86611136495 |
| 138 | 591.883665574239 | 491.727316897714 | 692.040014250764 |
| 139 | 432.044100698021 | 332.789271702236 | 531.298929693807 |
| 140 | 1031.55768421552 | 918.657027025342 | 1144.4583414057 |
| 141 | 887.78499969121 | 778.181198893442 | 997.38880048898 |
| 142 | 835.49543354432 | 750.709349608741 | 920.2815174799 |
