| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 621 | 621 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 587 | 608.77098293182 | -0.457029630606978 | -15.1574639493343 | -0.46781160979471 |
| 3 | 655 | 624.585272219781 | 0.841245852901682 | 25.4003335052864 | 0.428890000761588 |
| 4 | 517 | 586.465726157435 | -1.92478391657941 | -55.4286075192865 | -1.18105343404841 |
| 5 | 646 | 599.850778532084 | -1.08612382719182 | 39.6789350415096 | 0.522285943566346 |
| 6 | 657 | 622.25515888051 | -0.105258441708400 | 24.0215548655193 | 0.845927991724805 |
| 7 | 382 | 546.008355326935 | -2.67664199316742 | -128.113390545872 | -2.80183895345711 |
| 8 | 345 | 459.943035686867 | -5.13740127537003 | -75.120546104286 | -3.09400965205076 |
| 9 | 625 | 494.706815567802 | -4.04485749192906 | 111.142356167958 | 1.48496242341417 |
| 10 | 654 | 556.308470751571 | -2.31851830651843 | 66.1251819453168 | 2.44557844414699 |
| 11 | 606 | 587.525480990667 | -1.45798142715996 | 2.33742604031028 | 1.24971155673083 |
| 12 | 510 | 568.697202855142 | -1.89552278121732 | -50.3357120615608 | -0.64738744682891 |
| 13 | 614 | 572.250500305224 | -2.08610185058685 | 38.9212523787227 | 0.230969132616398 |
| 14 | 647 | 600.983265593104 | -1.99009976459817 | 31.5495590506249 | 1.17235415241348 |
| 15 | 580 | 586.226037070328 | -2.35599813800913 | -1.03972473354552 | -0.433850432379405 |
| 16 | 614 | 614.342559589628 | -1.25319274740779 | -12.4170203497891 | 1.02770463716922 |
| 17 | 636 | 612.031960869023 | -1.29001996226939 | 24.4031411983240 | -0.0369297761523492 |
| 18 | 388 | 511.692876005303 | -4.303396568697 | -81.2797777888639 | -3.57073956757405 |
| 19 | 356 | 466.307425345646 | -5.37321938506412 | -92.2585362686458 | -1.50955357530999 |
| 20 | 639 | 542.802123574905 | -3.51026151063354 | 59.7256510800657 | 3.03785386079080 |
| 21 | 753 | 602.841823609167 | -2.2078727964014 | 121.644663892949 | 2.36909371732910 |
| 22 | 611 | 603.258776300688 | -2.15907954363693 | 6.55897315730887 | 0.0980474355147776 |
| 23 | 639 | 611.819851252373 | -1.98815407907637 | 22.3364519826641 | 0.400822062084261 |
| 24 | 630 | 638.442512506838 | -1.67518347796536 | -21.4472961760856 | 1.07341239749444 |
| 25 | 586 | 622.133358808472 | -1.69302677303452 | -29.3440153369266 | -0.56116244342708 |
| 26 | 695 | 630.205336756158 | -1.61325889620705 | 60.380865466204 | 0.365476329508416 |
| 27 | 552 | 608.750192802577 | -1.97329989298572 | -48.2275917249707 | -0.71296342829598 |
| 28 | 619 | 600.689339908611 | -2.11948679300902 | 20.8596004778360 | -0.215358333088907 |
| 29 | 681 | 594.383044764793 | -2.22667704776392 | 88.3789033877845 | -0.149342826050015 |
| 30 | 421 | 562.111760846053 | -2.96508938111127 | -128.245552105742 | -1.08870869752609 |
| 31 | 307 | 524.024981542537 | -3.75439885877948 | -201.732348792529 | -1.28987195686643 |
| 32 | 754 | 580.767433379845 | -2.53303674714980 | 146.580320560859 | 2.24120703380798 |
| 33 | 690 | 589.542584793103 | -2.32938966587949 | 95.4393417668576 | 0.420932197722659 |
| 34 | 644 | 609.851502485735 | -1.97130942827454 | 24.0595076533150 | 0.844552864550726 |
| 35 | 643 | 621.776542187702 | -1.78560130870115 | 15.0120655486108 | 0.519041157009959 |
| 36 | 608 | 623.540824294328 | -1.74782442418364 | -17.1327274760061 | 0.132858990255110 |
| 37 | 651 | 640.94101018189 | -1.58220576801607 | 1.44603956092786 | 0.718483062662077 |
| 38 | 691 | 635.631699085548 | -1.62332443698287 | 57.0258623707766 | -0.138443997933265 |
| 39 | 627 | 643.483111289272 | -1.47791578234435 | -20.6080472153400 | 0.345998611251437 |
| 40 | 634 | 630.627411607222 | -1.69217833793495 | 8.25242546629732 | -0.411386558057923 |
| 41 | 731 | 623.946802266965 | -1.79447254940086 | 109.188924797363 | -0.180569852188678 |
| 42 | 475 | 613.686350554475 | -1.96866576009505 | -135.035385432936 | -0.308747886460838 |
| 43 | 337 | 600.806323844922 | -2.18271197697785 | -259.054757747277 | -0.401258546006242 |
| 44 | 803 | 619.097284026921 | -1.81128030894418 | 174.912555802609 | 0.75771959755711 |
| 45 | 722 | 630.18207267864 | -1.59903381756483 | 86.1223128180933 | 0.479133557912105 |
| 46 | 590 | 615.453374009324 | -1.79214434148784 | -19.6337033381906 | -0.488783055232906 |
| 47 | 724 | 643.120877435123 | -1.40900205080723 | 67.7919717289004 | 1.09784679736256 |
| 48 | 627 | 652.16828426199 | -1.28745567322089 | -29.8198702618583 | 0.389928755431202 |
| 49 | 696 | 666.339324084548 | -1.11508247109218 | 22.7883552361092 | 0.575971901724822 |
| 50 | 825 | 701.292844903496 | -0.671393384782864 | 107.772065807677 | 1.3365663954281 |
| 51 | 677 | 704.123634514612 | -0.620918729099026 | -28.6550749599137 | 0.128719650590822 |
| 52 | 656 | 684.98296158411 | -0.924748997579368 | -20.9516605022626 | -0.676826656574083 |
| 53 | 785 | 676.060030419167 | -1.06572357526415 | 112.400273080222 | -0.292168275896699 |
| 54 | 412 | 633.10719804537 | -1.81711738242252 | -202.930856972486 | -1.53555949633318 |
| 55 | 352 | 621.818262874004 | -1.98298519254837 | -265.685510422510 | -0.348938324879473 |
| 56 | 839 | 634.405431249039 | -1.74108437046113 | 198.202753824826 | 0.539045358103248 |
| 57 | 729 | 639.357579730207 | -1.63771628939421 | 86.6939754541648 | 0.248332286286509 |
| 58 | 696 | 671.15813964896 | -1.16209682443139 | 10.0720142960903 | 1.24259482556811 |
| 59 | 641 | 651.280535083776 | -1.40775901034266 | -2.00071385198322 | -0.696024750007052 |
| 60 | 695 | 675.560517673485 | -1.08978042044173 | 8.06872849183365 | 0.955428323014933 |
| 61 | 638 | 667.57848435152 | -1.17418726961684 | -26.5309242129937 | -0.256055514260866 |
| 62 | 762 | 659.300742226267 | -1.26566166259239 | 105.828715770000 | -0.263065293459633 |
| 63 | 635 | 652.278610715343 | -1.34626880522629 | -14.7563856761802 | -0.212260059134228 |
| 64 | 721 | 672.985772032546 | -1.01210855673648 | 38.3963855563151 | 0.810567366105447 |
| 65 | 854 | 689.751806449676 | -0.728500241438924 | 156.508797888657 | 0.65301587060007 |
| 66 | 418 | 671.208813117774 | -1.01793830502444 | -245.44387303271 | -0.655482137368702 |
| 67 | 367 | 659.528943872454 | -1.18917309756548 | -287.867428218858 | -0.393414750224318 |
| 68 | 824 | 649.957025133187 | -1.31922044538525 | 177.720438402894 | -0.310153172232603 |
| 69 | 687 | 637.734297143313 | -1.48017395483181 | 54.0623919102231 | -0.404212492074054 |
| 70 | 601 | 618.137899936111 | -1.73309585227055 | -9.15290568198557 | -0.672387330779044 |
| 71 | 676 | 636.274103360507 | -1.46947646193621 | 30.9586854480501 | 0.737858622326889 |
| 72 | 740 | 667.135621242642 | -1.05452254423450 | 58.5949741381707 | 1.20058086039231 |
| 73 | 691 | 687.600410432093 | -0.77940423008278 | -6.08984707852706 | 0.798392170950982 |
| 74 | 683 | 658.013798118804 | -1.15802728968394 | 37.6614294848401 | -1.06675151639112 |
| 75 | 594 | 641.188822704551 | -1.37382979987935 | -40.3163121777086 | -0.578763224685468 |
| 76 | 729 | 653.955892675977 | -1.16953657891463 | 68.8575746492839 | 0.52141944534227 |
| 77 | 731 | 625.995007377817 | -1.57011764564309 | 116.711920097518 | -0.98738172003967 |
| 78 | 386 | 618.012122023127 | -1.66741466902773 | -229.208483631222 | -0.236542346122302 |
| 79 | 331 | 613.118539412001 | -1.71610409726735 | -280.705660102587 | -0.119194125160116 |
| 80 | 706 | 582.451149916966 | -2.14363322441074 | 136.254200402822 | -1.07143670154653 |
| 81 | 715 | 599.305588164758 | -1.87207518228141 | 107.341835613924 | 0.704006055071197 |
| 82 | 657 | 629.63961206741 | -1.42815202796696 | 13.1823711947994 | 1.19443422218725 |
| 83 | 653 | 639.615028048671 | -1.27593432620173 | 8.36110865959837 | 0.423087885211165 |
| 84 | 642 | 624.650954562691 | -1.45504256245903 | 23.3801769942602 | -0.507818262702407 |
| 85 | 643 | 621.480329145757 | -1.47744151179037 | 22.2751339716811 | -0.0636087685384157 |
| 86 | 718 | 635.388778069596 | -1.27340004650516 | 75.8449614938698 | 0.569813235567022 |
| 87 | 654 | 655.976837804265 | -0.97553666369995 | -11.5739756014158 | 0.80851384281048 |
| 88 | 632 | 624.298641517965 | -1.40609186814535 | 21.1587647339096 | -1.13425862673243 |
| 89 | 731 | 612.050837209052 | -1.56152856199170 | 123.697585528878 | -0.400387398236031 |
| 90 | 392 | 609.826912515841 | -1.57112542773569 | -217.536734987818 | -0.0244731298740309 |
| 91 | 344 | 610.519622101672 | -1.53840237875069 | -267.512300197305 | 0.0837185905122837 |
| 92 | 792 | 630.867041236609 | -1.22625500767058 | 151.524073071899 | 0.810194216984395 |
| 93 | 852 | 676.749855698353 | -0.568159785211801 | 154.542934184500 | 1.74542190475153 |
| 94 | 649 | 674.149377770956 | -0.595899610253425 | -24.2552797243459 | -0.0753408918796882 |
| 95 | 629 | 654.52758315293 | -0.850391654729315 | -17.1531932033344 | -0.705501806771062 |
| 96 | 685 | 653.712202098903 | -0.849929119021646 | 31.2723864138528 | 0.00129817759552111 |
| 97 | 617 | 638.409682026268 | -1.04055275350547 | -15.0500601187458 | -0.535692805971087 |
| 98 | 715 | 636.419770257486 | -1.05318577032379 | 78.997646976741 | -0.035164371491228 |
| 99 | 715 | 656.862829514019 | -0.762576034453439 | 48.6953802579499 | 0.795577263933655 |
| 100 | 629 | 643.810657405746 | -0.931642481550809 | -9.4176764466217 | -0.454545437421962 |
| 101 | 916 | 688.768023886694 | -0.291480656918096 | 207.104469948607 | 1.69686083789203 |
| 102 | 531 | 720.227913164101 | 0.154615745349867 | -203.155668303637 | 1.17434988968461 |
| 103 | 357 | 704.737612000818 | -0.0649873767470255 | -340.871211899862 | -0.578952297308622 |
| 104 | 917 | 728.907308983821 | 0.272434359994997 | 177.448232640891 | 0.897390366024121 |
| 105 | 828 | 714.262374273252 | 0.0674211954527441 | 120.294529985932 | -0.552679284685347 |
| 106 | 708 | 712.791417276777 | 0.0465858003787882 | -4.11484250426232 | -0.0570172389326116 |
| 107 | 858 | 762.242404471211 | 0.707236459529172 | 74.0225070895943 | 1.83141410520292 |
| 108 | 775 | 764.748760558954 | 0.731106339609664 | 9.45968188700372 | 0.0666915443393308 |
| 109 | 785 | 778.856376938914 | 0.908344229504944 | 0.259680039294548 | 0.49573786647434 |
| 110 | 1006 | 833.805170384898 | 1.62796873335074 | 148.435328423141 | 2.00193181356576 |
| 111 | 789 | 819.125853007679 | 1.40878172503416 | -22.9605532293672 | -0.60381381317988 |
| 112 | 734 | 804.980557654964 | 1.19750128286981 | -64.1499726398601 | -0.5757023262697 |
| 113 | 906 | 775.431001796747 | 0.776192668393245 | 144.067515816919 | -1.13786546360258 |
| 114 | 532 | 756.191026241127 | 0.500642625919868 | -215.403299092785 | -0.740830848502529 |
| 115 | 387 | 748.183248888348 | 0.383549058208852 | -357.446617512852 | -0.315009315688191 |
| 116 | 991 | 766.258740922955 | 0.625836602479941 | 216.967942413959 | 0.655265634842063 |
| 117 | 841 | 760.637560279432 | 0.540972144364167 | 83.108465096877 | -0.231454166914231 |
| 118 | 892 | 813.239112415817 | 1.24175749110983 | 55.8680307397057 | 1.92933611495761 |
| 119 | 782 | 794.638641597445 | 0.976797113598297 | -3.91141493290453 | -0.735431409482744 |
| 120 | 813 | 800.433646083426 | 1.04081268941329 | 10.4470588395289 | 0.178580028311706 |
| 121 | 793 | 807.71536379231 | 1.12364257364201 | -17.4600720307446 | 0.231277606022705 |
| 122 | 978 | 810.346092759279 | 1.14370088782955 | 166.991289910576 | 0.0558363090836428 |
| 123 | 775 | 800.980044593906 | 1.00305255874989 | -21.3609316892798 | -0.389265791214877 |
| 124 | 797 | 810.542988329192 | 1.11833942004229 | -17.3038811069407 | 0.316972230061722 |
| 125 | 946 | 806.484630276868 | 1.04824142081894 | 141.789387714637 | -0.191673987913987 |
| 126 | 594 | 807.495723491526 | 1.04773688685236 | -213.479404920941 | -0.00137554507840970 |
| 127 | 438 | 809.169279508838 | 1.05623603275497 | -371.444240613927 | 0.0231774436329254 |
| 128 | 1022 | 811.432206712518 | 1.07257568478584 | 210.037471982115 | 0.0447007517877364 |
| 129 | 868 | 813.022800352097 | 1.07955528551371 | 54.7494732998991 | 0.0191936889291054 |
| 130 | 795 | 787.531345305311 | 0.723585967650354 | 19.1523093908025 | -0.98467096989025 |
