| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.536611617913518 |
| beta | 0.166578889966966 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 471 | 463.071581196581 | 7.92841880341877 |
| 14 | 471 | 467.751552884205 | 3.24844711579470 |
| 15 | 476 | 474.627236794817 | 1.37276320518305 |
| 16 | 475 | 475.035782381664 | -0.0357823816636937 |
| 17 | 470 | 471.64362085405 | -1.64362085404969 |
| 18 | 461 | 463.200087599295 | -2.20008759929476 |
| 19 | 455 | 455.052952691543 | -0.052952691543112 |
| 20 | 456 | 451.594928643116 | 4.40507135688415 |
| 21 | 517 | 508.839560015662 | 8.16043998433759 |
| 22 | 525 | 541.662145934044 | -16.6621459340436 |
| 23 | 523 | 536.133578501047 | -13.1335785010471 |
| 24 | 519 | 518.199494830221 | 0.800505169779285 |
| 25 | 509 | 489.613095194284 | 19.3869048057157 |
| 26 | 512 | 498.599085098242 | 13.4009149017578 |
| 27 | 519 | 511.286947545559 | 7.71305245444125 |
| 28 | 517 | 516.245225687211 | 0.754774312789436 |
| 29 | 510 | 514.403062155734 | -4.40306215573378 |
| 30 | 509 | 505.84508877072 | 3.15491122927972 |
| 31 | 501 | 503.669307708342 | -2.66930770834210 |
| 32 | 507 | 502.742084420553 | 4.25791557944746 |
| 33 | 569 | 563.503761208528 | 5.49623879147248 |
| 34 | 580 | 585.011876546371 | -5.01187654637124 |
| 35 | 578 | 590.029141065672 | -12.0291410656716 |
| 36 | 565 | 581.902392373837 | -16.9023923738370 |
| 37 | 547 | 553.604492859586 | -6.604492859586 |
| 38 | 555 | 544.721394179860 | 10.2786058201395 |
| 39 | 562 | 551.67103798072 | 10.3289620192795 |
| 40 | 561 | 553.61542775731 | 7.38457224268984 |
| 41 | 555 | 552.340204233303 | 2.65979576669702 |
| 42 | 544 | 551.105250362051 | -7.10525036205081 |
| 43 | 537 | 539.838465791353 | -2.83846579135343 |
| 44 | 543 | 541.128938165233 | 1.87106183476715 |
| 45 | 594 | 600.06874267317 | -6.06874267317039 |
| 46 | 611 | 608.352960108755 | 2.64703989124450 |
| 47 | 613 | 612.764329901227 | 0.235670098773085 |
| 48 | 611 | 608.593102913576 | 2.40689708642446 |
| 49 | 594 | 596.787031036753 | -2.78703103675298 |
| 50 | 595 | 599.475406005942 | -4.47540600594198 |
| 51 | 591 | 598.911923547078 | -7.91192354707778 |
| 52 | 589 | 588.453840275072 | 0.54615972492843 |
| 53 | 584 | 579.458559536532 | 4.54144046346835 |
| 54 | 573 | 573.015426832889 | -0.0154268328886928 |
| 55 | 567 | 566.471166359232 | 0.528833640767857 |
| 56 | 569 | 570.992771866034 | -1.99277186603410 |
| 57 | 621 | 623.076464890373 | -2.07646489037290 |
| 58 | 629 | 636.795119478016 | -7.79511947801586 |
| 59 | 628 | 632.805641128437 | -4.80564112843717 |
| 60 | 612 | 624.804612392861 | -12.8046123928613 |
| 61 | 595 | 598.938635959318 | -3.93863595931759 |
| 62 | 597 | 596.633307254131 | 0.366692745869045 |
| 63 | 593 | 593.915169523852 | -0.915169523852 |
| 64 | 590 | 588.595890879709 | 1.40410912029097 |
| 65 | 580 | 579.453940564458 | 0.546059435542247 |
| 66 | 574 | 565.939678962967 | 8.06032103703274 |
| 67 | 573 | 561.887477248082 | 11.1125227519179 |
| 68 | 573 | 569.772301821045 | 3.22769817895528 |
| 69 | 620 | 623.937596823766 | -3.93759682376572 |
| 70 | 626 | 633.160244599522 | -7.16024459952166 |
| 71 | 620 | 630.106143626558 | -10.1061436265580 |
| 72 | 588 | 614.289777716373 | -26.2897777163729 |
| 73 | 566 | 582.826085556346 | -16.8260855563458 |
| 74 | 557 | 571.978445650377 | -14.9784456503767 |
| 75 | 561 | 555.43845916651 | 5.56154083349043 |
| 76 | 549 | 550.254857467324 | -1.25485746732409 |
| 77 | 532 | 534.636256526055 | -2.63625652605481 |
| 78 | 526 | 517.959679332787 | 8.0403206672131 |
| 79 | 511 | 510.372642804143 | 0.627357195856575 |
| 80 | 499 | 503.101562688043 | -4.10156268804326 |
| 81 | 555 | 543.482720567128 | 11.5172794328715 |
| 82 | 565 | 554.355923893489 | 10.6440761065107 |
| 83 | 542 | 555.932855417494 | -13.9328554174937 |
| 84 | 527 | 526.663783270571 | 0.336216729428997 |
| 85 | 510 | 512.353382708619 | -2.35338270861905 |
| 86 | 514 | 509.901935189993 | 4.09806481000726 |
| 87 | 517 | 514.595628298504 | 2.40437170149607 |
| 88 | 508 | 505.756010964664 | 2.24398903533626 |
| 89 | 493 | 492.88436069052 | 0.115639309479718 |
| 90 | 490 | 484.387424791358 | 5.61257520864183 |
| 91 | 469 | 473.601079162435 | -4.60107916243538 |
| 92 | 478 | 462.404200940752 | 15.5957990592484 |
| 93 | 528 | 523.424661152204 | 4.57533884779582 |
| 94 | 534 | 532.379458080291 | 1.62054191970924 |
| 95 | 518 | 519.130346449903 | -1.13034644990262 |
| 96 | 506 | 505.892519087918 | 0.107480912082281 |
| 97 | 502 | 492.741748299746 | 9.2582517002544 |
| 98 | 516 | 503.07740846181 | 12.9225915381903 |
| 99 | 528 | 516.077059626759 | 11.9229403732409 |
| 100 | 533 | 517.477196976979 | 15.5228030230213 |
| 101 | 536 | 517.138128488837 | 18.8618715111627 |
| 102 | 537 | 529.316814624977 | 7.68318537502341 |
| 103 | 524 | 523.162741553029 | 0.837258446970736 |
| 104 | 536 | 532.983308090758 | 3.01669190924167 |
| 105 | 587 | 589.76266759015 | -2.76266759015039 |
| 106 | 597 | 600.370403048525 | -3.37040304852474 |
| 107 | 581 | 589.682047832455 | -8.68204783245471 |
| 108 | 564 | 578.804137022419 | -14.8041370224188 |
| 109 | 558 | 566.397709905406 | -8.39770990540592 |
| 110 | 575 | 571.884484623554 | 3.11551537644561 |
| 111 | 580 | 581.209177648417 | -1.20917764841727 |
| 112 | 575 | 578.107606064073 | -3.10760606407325 |
| 113 | 563 | 568.530194661399 | -5.53019466139949 |
| 114 | 552 | 559.471044825142 | -7.47104482514192 |
| 115 | 537 | 537.68940729755 | -0.689407297549792 |
| 116 | 545 | 543.240900085893 | 1.75909991410708 |
| 117 | 601 | 592.095147897925 | 8.90485210207453 |
| 118 | 604 | 605.152945466706 | -1.15294546670555 |
| 119 | 586 | 589.862116780835 | -3.86211678083487 |
| 120 | 564 | 575.833544283051 | -11.8335442830514 |
| 121 | 549 | 565.35518379774 | -16.3551837977404 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 122 | 568.561024560532 | 552.643901893686 | 584.478147227378 |
| 123 | 570.58543727255 | 551.806768810062 | 589.364105735038 |
| 124 | 563.736654902548 | 541.77531873324 | 585.697991071856 |
| 125 | 551.465644931159 | 526.041459224428 | 576.88983063789 |
| 126 | 541.730451673823 | 512.593637842211 | 570.867265505435 |
| 127 | 525.023975938094 | 491.947653227259 | 558.10029864893 |
| 128 | 530.065227641141 | 492.840161304098 | 567.290293978185 |
| 129 | 579.114742983349 | 537.545644208624 | 620.683841758075 |
| 130 | 579.76540093894 | 533.668274292965 | 625.862527584915 |
| 131 | 560.972891379286 | 510.173091837153 | 611.772690921419 |
| 132 | 542.803169970987 | 487.133947307406 | 598.472392634567 |
| 133 | 535.117591698618 | 474.418975784733 | 595.816207612502 |
