| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.957106985347539 |
| beta | 0.0213231419809721 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 27951 | 24203.1065705128 | 3747.89342948717 |
| 14 | 29781 | 29654.6202551851 | 126.379744814931 |
| 15 | 32914 | 32946.4121193041 | -32.412119304121 |
| 16 | 33488 | 33593.0200307429 | -105.020030742926 |
| 17 | 35652 | 35915.2410986995 | -263.241098699524 |
| 18 | 36488 | 36895.8636472487 | -407.863647248749 |
| 19 | 35387 | 34286.1180476208 | 1100.88195237923 |
| 20 | 35676 | 36417.4957808125 | -741.495780812547 |
| 21 | 34844 | 34291.6797450763 | 552.320254923688 |
| 22 | 32447 | 34813.0811183625 | -2366.08111836253 |
| 23 | 31068 | 32676.8052514775 | -1608.80525147745 |
| 24 | 29010 | 30941.1150593774 | -1931.11505937737 |
| 25 | 29812 | 30347.5787971138 | -535.578797113765 |
| 26 | 30951 | 31417.2352441557 | -466.235244155694 |
| 27 | 32974 | 33996.147292809 | -1022.14729280899 |
| 28 | 32936 | 33533.2865375478 | -597.286537547756 |
| 29 | 34012 | 35208.4510334612 | -1196.45103346121 |
| 30 | 32946 | 35101.5248152052 | -2155.52481520519 |
| 31 | 31948 | 30659.9642363374 | 1288.0357636626 |
| 32 | 30599 | 32671.431673882 | -2072.43167388201 |
| 33 | 27691 | 29080.0894447363 | -1389.08944473627 |
| 34 | 25073 | 27331.3798624231 | -2258.37986242307 |
| 35 | 23406 | 25046.0703511278 | -1640.07035112784 |
| 36 | 22248 | 22981.3960861211 | -733.39608612112 |
| 37 | 22896 | 23333.2722700379 | -437.272270037862 |
| 38 | 25317 | 24241.2077194548 | 1075.7922805452 |
| 39 | 26558 | 28044.8456366513 | -1486.84563665127 |
| 40 | 26471 | 26918.6438964953 | -447.643896495269 |
| 41 | 27543 | 28477.5879114897 | -934.587911489689 |
| 42 | 26198 | 28351.7548651241 | -2153.75486512409 |
| 43 | 24725 | 23831.2288487044 | 893.771151295619 |
| 44 | 25005 | 25084.7917686993 | -79.7917686992987 |
| 45 | 23462 | 23234.1860439703 | 227.813956029706 |
| 46 | 20780 | 22832.9944567295 | -2052.99445672949 |
| 47 | 19815 | 20612.2284668615 | -797.228466861485 |
| 48 | 19761 | 19251.7817676975 | 509.218232302523 |
| 49 | 21454 | 20689.6820866707 | 764.31791332933 |
| 50 | 23899 | 22721.0981287392 | 1177.90187126078 |
| 51 | 24939 | 26423.1608238923 | -1484.16082389229 |
| 52 | 23580 | 25254.7722664694 | -1674.77226646938 |
| 53 | 24562 | 25503.9618002236 | -941.961800223642 |
| 54 | 24696 | 25204.2520675701 | -508.252067570131 |
| 55 | 23785 | 22308.4228014564 | 1476.57719854357 |
| 56 | 23812 | 24008.98557568 | -196.985575680013 |
| 57 | 21917 | 21987.966387298 | -70.9663872980345 |
| 58 | 19713 | 21125.4410414512 | -1412.44104145119 |
| 59 | 19282 | 19507.1512849837 | -225.151284983735 |
| 60 | 18788 | 18697.4908395731 | 90.5091604269 |
| 61 | 21453 | 19684.2482889166 | 1768.75171108344 |
| 62 | 24482 | 22653.9183268628 | 1828.08167313724 |
| 63 | 27474 | 26836.5214996775 | 637.47850032249 |
| 64 | 27264 | 27706.3251380422 | -442.32513804223 |
| 65 | 27349 | 29207.4155870458 | -1858.41558704582 |
| 66 | 30632 | 28071.3458877913 | 2560.6541122087 |
| 67 | 29429 | 28282.7365692389 | 1146.26343076108 |
| 68 | 30084 | 29673.4414532649 | 410.558546735116 |
| 69 | 26290 | 28329.7832894654 | -2039.7832894654 |
| 70 | 24379 | 25575.6399447563 | -1196.63994475625 |
| 71 | 23335 | 24269.5158481254 | -934.515848125386 |
| 72 | 21346 | 22834.6746514593 | -1488.67465145932 |
| 73 | 21106 | 22389.9577075273 | -1283.95770752727 |
| 74 | 24514 | 22386.0903534579 | 2127.90964654207 |
| 75 | 28353 | 26756.3987381578 | 1596.60126184223 |
| 76 | 30805 | 28469.250045438 | 2335.74995456201 |
| 77 | 31348 | 32596.5922140573 | -1248.59221405726 |
| 78 | 34556 | 32274.2585747889 | 2281.74142521108 |
| 79 | 33855 | 32192.8629260746 | 1662.13707392537 |
| 80 | 34787 | 34091.1161300116 | 695.883869988422 |
| 81 | 32529 | 32966.6240006514 | -437.624000651398 |
| 82 | 29998 | 31865.9628984148 | -1867.96289841482 |
| 83 | 29257 | 29998.7329284108 | -741.732928410791 |
| 84 | 28155 | 28798.7492071099 | -643.749207109926 |
| 85 | 30466 | 29262.8540575669 | 1203.14594243308 |
| 86 | 35704 | 31927.8712040232 | 3776.12879597679 |
| 87 | 39327 | 38028.6649060469 | 1298.33509395306 |
| 88 | 39351 | 39657.4133971206 | -306.413397120574 |
| 89 | 42234 | 41217.9221600109 | 1016.07783998913 |
| 90 | 43630 | 43376.5081197734 | 253.49188022656 |
| 91 | 43722 | 41447.8517953737 | 2274.14820462626 |
| 92 | 43121 | 44023.4776915288 | -902.477691528788 |
| 93 | 37985 | 41421.0008466684 | -3436.00084666835 |
| 94 | 37135 | 37428.4661847129 | -293.466184712874 |
| 95 | 34646 | 37187.8839885004 | -2541.88398850035 |
| 96 | 33026 | 34303.8060686304 | -1277.80606863038 |
| 97 | 35087 | 34261.9695397591 | 825.030460240945 |
| 98 | 38846 | 36689.43589895 | 2156.56410105001 |
| 99 | 42013 | 41114.7831357913 | 898.216864208669 |
| 100 | 43908 | 42264.5076086407 | 1643.49239135932 |
| 101 | 42868 | 45760.5696005895 | -2892.56960058953 |
| 102 | 44423 | 44078.2415818128 | 344.758418187237 |
| 103 | 44167 | 42258.2611563071 | 1908.73884369292 |
| 104 | 43636 | 44275.0906888205 | -639.090688820528 |
| 105 | 44382 | 41748.6028286708 | 2633.39717132922 |
| 106 | 42142 | 43756.3615625214 | -1614.36156252142 |
| 107 | 43452 | 42184.57959563 | 1267.42040437003 |
| 108 | 36912 | 43107.8557682617 | -6195.85576826174 |
| 109 | 42413 | 38455.9684959765 | 3957.03150402353 |
| 110 | 45344 | 44008.9799360331 | 1335.02006396692 |
| 111 | 44873 | 47648.0523369253 | -2775.05233692529 |
| 112 | 47510 | 45293.0713017395 | 2216.92869826049 |
| 113 | 49554 | 49134.1497955218 | 419.850204478178 |
| 114 | 47369 | 50819.3642618564 | -3450.36426185641 |
| 115 | 45998 | 45415.0199694621 | 582.980030537932 |
| 116 | 48140 | 46007.5063306288 | 2132.49366937119 |
| 117 | 48441 | 46284.4859863651 | 2156.51401363491 |
| 118 | 44928 | 47654.282754283 | -2726.28275428301 |
| 119 | 40454 | 45119.8543019029 | -4665.85430190292 |
| 120 | 38661 | 39901.1127273156 | -1240.11272731556 |
| 121 | 37246 | 40385.9124353144 | -3139.91243531439 |
| 122 | 36843 | 38847.1078568749 | -2004.10785687491 |
| 123 | 36424 | 38859.0220934936 | -2435.02209349359 |
| 124 | 37594 | 36795.5849014515 | 798.415098548547 |
| 125 | 38144 | 38924.9396374962 | -780.939637496209 |
| 126 | 38737 | 38993.3858705731 | -256.385870573133 |
| 127 | 34560 | 36582.7285794758 | -2022.72857947585 |
| 128 | 36080 | 34458.2633380606 | 1621.73666193943 |
| 129 | 33508 | 33947.5273990163 | -439.52739901626 |
| 130 | 35462 | 32270.3187389705 | 3191.68126102947 |
| 131 | 33374 | 35084.7196646527 | -1710.71966465272 |
| 132 | 32110 | 32669.5071767577 | -559.507176757666 |
| 133 | 35533 | 33566.3299314637 | 1966.67006853631 |
| 134 | 35532 | 36910.1059105792 | -1378.10591057919 |
| 135 | 37903 | 37461.7802399504 | 441.219760049586 |
| 136 | 36763 | 38307.6984169206 | -1544.69841692065 |
| 137 | 40399 | 38096.6723864796 | 2302.32761352043 |
| 138 | 44164 | 41171.5327145291 | 2992.46728547088 |
| 139 | 44496 | 41893.8137997328 | 2602.18620026722 |
| 140 | 43110 | 44545.7986950495 | -1435.79869504952 |
| 141 | 43880 | 41151.4504753465 | 2728.54952465348 |
| 142 | 43930 | 42858.0296394016 | 1071.97036059845 |
| 143 | 44327 | 43585.9473051438 | 741.05269485616 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | 43769.3449128364 | 40271.3686085046 | 47267.3212171683 |
| 145 | 45524.0726400358 | 40632.4850422983 | 50415.6602377733 |
| 146 | 47015.9719798344 | 41006.5861541469 | 53025.3578055218 |
| 147 | 49166.7071249073 | 42180.9145999252 | 56152.4996498895 |
| 148 | 49698.1737835985 | 41823.939885864 | 57572.407681333 |
| 149 | 51355.1499768495 | 42652.868811896 | 60057.431141803 |
| 150 | 52433.6015513244 | 42947.3006998522 | 61919.9024027965 |
| 151 | 50391.5220258944 | 40154.6098333451 | 60628.4342184437 |
| 152 | 50443.1192602075 | 39481.6735387983 | 61404.5649816167 |
| 153 | 48694.2922620938 | 37029.093605814 | 60359.4909183737 |
| 154 | 47755.3030739244 | 35403.1669813812 | 60107.4391664677 |
| 155 | 47458.1601579429 | 34432.8500262172 | 60483.4702896685 |
