Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
timeY[t]F[t]95% LB95% UBp-value
(H0: Y[t] = F[t])
P(F[t]>Y[t-1])P(F[t]>Y[t-s])P(F[t]>Y[47])
35212-------
36240-------
37234-------
38217-------
39287-------
40221-------
41208-------
42241-------
43156-------
4496-------
45320-------
46242-------
47227-------
48200239.9577178.4672301.44830.10140.66020.49950.6602
49215232.3678167.6591297.07650.29940.83660.48030.5646
50238213.8844148.7496279.01930.2340.48660.46270.3465
51279268.688203.501333.8750.37830.82190.2910.895
52208210.3145.1066275.49340.47240.01940.37380.3078
53262203.1355137.9413268.32960.03840.44190.44190.2365
54259238.8061173.6118304.00040.27190.24280.47370.6387
55167149.156383.962214.35050.29585e-040.41850.0096
5612394.481629.2873159.67580.19560.01460.48180
57302299.8479234.6537365.04210.474210.27230.9857
58246240.136174.9424305.32960.430.03140.47770.6536
59235219.062153.8737284.25030.31590.2090.40570.4057


Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time% S.E.PEMAPESq.EMSERMSE
480.1307-0.166501596.61900
490.1421-0.07470.1206301.6408949.129930.808
500.15540.11280.118581.5603826.606728.7508
510.12380.03840.0981106.3371646.539325.4271
520.1582-0.01090.08075.2899518.289422.766
530.16370.28980.11553465.03331009.413431.7713
540.13930.08460.1111407.7937923.467830.3886
550.2230.11960.1122318.3994847.834229.1176
560.35210.30180.1332813.3017843.997329.0516
570.11090.00720.12064.6314760.060727.5692
580.13850.02440.111934.3866694.090326.3456
590.15180.07280.1086254.0195657.417725.6402