| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.94592858766538 |
| beta | 0.0390410580898643 |
| gamma | 0.774358779506533 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 29.812 | 30.4108518601392 | -0.598851860139202 |
| 14 | 30.951 | 31.0277203611790 | -0.0767203611790386 |
| 15 | 32.974 | 33.1828321772309 | -0.208832177230875 |
| 16 | 32.936 | 33.249221569499 | -0.313221569499035 |
| 17 | 34.012 | 34.3593559417831 | -0.347355941783128 |
| 18 | 32.946 | 33.2493306419754 | -0.303330641975421 |
| 19 | 31.948 | 31.6553568019176 | 0.292643198082377 |
| 20 | 30.599 | 31.7001352790484 | -1.10113527904840 |
| 21 | 27.691 | 29.4968068936204 | -1.80580689362036 |
| 22 | 25.073 | 25.4577397593152 | -0.384739759315206 |
| 23 | 23.406 | 23.6621771137398 | -0.256177113739838 |
| 24 | 22.248 | 21.5978279616387 | 0.650172038361298 |
| 25 | 22.896 | 22.6071486755763 | 0.288851324423700 |
| 26 | 25.317 | 23.6204808768503 | 1.69651912314973 |
| 27 | 26.558 | 26.9221072279287 | -0.36410722792866 |
| 28 | 26.471 | 26.6602191539865 | -0.189219153986528 |
| 29 | 27.543 | 27.4789451409819 | 0.0640548590181105 |
| 30 | 26.198 | 26.7928178426481 | -0.594817842648137 |
| 31 | 24.725 | 25.0794719940671 | -0.354471994067122 |
| 32 | 25.005 | 24.3580384768944 | 0.646961523105634 |
| 33 | 23.462 | 23.9090564767751 | -0.447056476775064 |
| 34 | 20.78 | 21.5302491452802 | -0.750249145280151 |
| 35 | 19.815 | 19.5843179241324 | 0.230682075867612 |
| 36 | 19.761 | 18.2656226881529 | 1.49537731184706 |
| 37 | 21.454 | 20.0394202464613 | 1.41457975353869 |
| 38 | 23.899 | 22.2099459337419 | 1.68905406625807 |
| 39 | 24.939 | 25.4276607847813 | -0.488660784781327 |
| 40 | 23.58 | 25.1501356347057 | -1.57013563470565 |
| 41 | 24.562 | 24.5980484598158 | -0.0360484598158379 |
| 42 | 24.696 | 23.9000245006762 | 0.795975499323752 |
| 43 | 23.785 | 23.6748571958157 | 0.110142804184282 |
| 44 | 23.812 | 23.5687095540276 | 0.24329044597237 |
| 45 | 21.917 | 22.8451750415451 | -0.928175041545053 |
| 46 | 19.713 | 20.1933602161703 | -0.480360216170343 |
| 47 | 19.282 | 18.6847240859458 | 0.597275914054247 |
| 48 | 18.788 | 17.9012260028784 | 0.886773997121558 |
| 49 | 21.453 | 19.1461462696094 | 2.30685373039060 |
| 50 | 24.482 | 22.2897716073321 | 2.19222839266788 |
| 51 | 27.474 | 26.0854805411882 | 1.3885194588118 |
| 52 | 27.264 | 27.8050665240494 | -0.54106652404943 |
| 53 | 27.349 | 28.7855240097176 | -1.43652400971756 |
| 54 | 30.632 | 26.9931088134042 | 3.63889118659579 |
| 55 | 29.429 | 29.5911524772775 | -0.162152477277477 |
| 56 | 30.084 | 29.5736049193155 | 0.510395080684464 |
| 57 | 26.29 | 29.1809859682926 | -2.89098596829262 |
| 58 | 24.379 | 24.6190217369547 | -0.240021736954745 |
| 59 | 23.335 | 23.444077155783 | -0.109077155783009 |
| 60 | 21.346 | 21.9685466339507 | -0.622546633950737 |
| 61 | 21.106 | 22.0727240154377 | -0.96672401543771 |
| 62 | 24.514 | 22.1128616055365 | 2.40113839446347 |
| 63 | 28.353 | 26.0935692617528 | 2.25943073824721 |
| 64 | 30.805 | 28.6280553198637 | 2.17694468013628 |
| 65 | 31.348 | 32.5008305921727 | -1.15283059217267 |
| 66 | 34.556 | 31.3355555680500 | 3.22044443194997 |
| 67 | 33.855 | 33.4116922047595 | 0.443307795240472 |
| 68 | 34.787 | 34.2005628890866 | 0.586437110913359 |
| 69 | 32.529 | 33.7395689877443 | -1.21056898774427 |
| 70 | 29.998 | 30.7127497827325 | -0.714749782732468 |
| 71 | 29.257 | 29.0950864324581 | 0.161913567541873 |
| 72 | 28.155 | 27.71952869522 | 0.435471304779995 |
| 73 | 30.466 | 29.303796207033 | 1.16220379296698 |
| 74 | 35.704 | 32.3776841488372 | 3.32631585116278 |
| 75 | 39.327 | 38.420523233371 | 0.906476766628963 |
| 76 | 39.351 | 40.1684440499140 | -0.817444049913959 |
| 77 | 42.234 | 41.7684890050156 | 0.465510994984413 |
| 78 | 43.63 | 42.639153863473 | 0.990846136527011 |
| 79 | 43.722 | 42.3890093003529 | 1.33299069964707 |
| 80 | 43.121 | 44.3427201392084 | -1.22172013920841 |
| 81 | 37.985 | 41.9708497812421 | -3.9858497812421 |
| 82 | 37.135 | 36.0713692363126 | 1.06363076368743 |
| 83 | 34.646 | 36.0739805912821 | -1.42798059128206 |
| 84 | 33.026 | 32.9792318749246 | 0.04676812507536 |
| 85 | 35.087 | 34.4756688771795 | 0.611331122820509 |
| 86 | 38.846 | 37.4375704568802 | 1.40842954311976 |
| 87 | 42.013 | 41.7550078798706 | 0.257992120129366 |
| 88 | 43.908 | 42.7992996973438 | 1.10870030265615 |
| 89 | 42.868 | 46.5348530217785 | -3.66685302177846 |
| 90 | 44.423 | 43.3911211216381 | 1.03187887836193 |
| 91 | 44.167 | 43.0434932991901 | 1.12350670080986 |
| 92 | 43.636 | 44.5618201396121 | -0.925820139612135 |
| 93 | 44.382 | 42.2010383373369 | 2.18096166266308 |
| 94 | 42.142 | 42.0990864992032 | 0.0429135007968355 |
| 95 | 43.452 | 40.9101755949056 | 2.54182440509438 |
| 96 | 36.912 | 41.3642332326973 | -4.45223323269729 |
| 97 | 42.413 | 38.8229176915438 | 3.59008230845622 |
| 98 | 45.344 | 45.2310272123783 | 0.112972787621679 |
| 99 | 44.873 | 48.8288267624973 | -3.95582676249727 |
| 100 | 47.51 | 45.9171710256538 | 1.59282897434619 |
| 101 | 49.554 | 50.0413328798024 | -0.487332879802373 |
| 102 | 47.369 | 50.2350603672695 | -2.86606036726945 |
| 103 | 45.998 | 46.0411439298867 | -0.0431439298867033 |
| 104 | 48.14 | 46.2785469358806 | 1.86145306411944 |
| 105 | 48.441 | 46.5251881000633 | 1.91581189993671 |
| 106 | 44.928 | 45.8500197481911 | -0.922019748191069 |
| 107 | 40.454 | 43.7143775324225 | -3.2603775324225 |
| 108 | 38.661 | 38.3032606948223 | 0.357739305177731 |
| 109 | 37.246 | 40.6562035443757 | -3.41020354437566 |
| 110 | 36.843 | 39.6721259494619 | -2.82912594946193 |
| 111 | 36.424 | 39.2988683660116 | -2.87486836601157 |
| 112 | 37.594 | 37.0542629909156 | 0.539737009084412 |
| 113 | 38.144 | 39.1388326121083 | -0.994832612108254 |
| 114 | 38.737 | 38.1756927722865 | 0.561307227713549 |
| 115 | 34.56 | 37.2507179739447 | -2.69071797394471 |
| 116 | 36.08 | 34.5468567524539 | 1.5331432475461 |
| 117 | 33.508 | 34.4595659913753 | -0.951565991375311 |
| 118 | 35.462 | 31.3086590596157 | 4.15334094038426 |
| 119 | 33.374 | 33.8781803729084 | -0.50418037290838 |
| 120 | 32.11 | 31.4038870283788 | 0.706112971621174 |
| 121 | 35.533 | 33.4055620788884 | 2.12743792111159 |
| 122 | 35.532 | 37.5401587191845 | -2.00815871918453 |
| 123 | 37.903 | 37.8593090942476 | 0.0436909057523636 |
| 124 | 36.763 | 38.6635397739057 | -1.90053977390566 |
| 125 | 40.399 | 38.3687062336844 | 2.03029376631564 |
| 126 | 44.164 | 40.4826284707793 | 3.68137152922071 |
| 127 | 44.496 | 42.412796055742 | 2.08320394425800 |
| 128 | 43.11 | 44.8981254831121 | -1.78812548311215 |
| 129 | 43.88 | 41.5641713688254 | 2.31582863117459 |
| 130 | 43.93 | 41.5212116436901 | 2.40878835630993 |
| 131 | 44.327 | 42.1974492051025 | 2.12955079489754 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 132 | 42.0370509554123 | 38.7167875326701 | 45.3573143781545 |
| 133 | 44.2405793938914 | 39.4516221493873 | 49.0295366383954 |
| 134 | 46.9634492811187 | 40.8495367406383 | 53.0773618215991 |
| 135 | 50.4285210848259 | 42.9707176294571 | 57.8863245401946 |
| 136 | 51.7573304962743 | 43.2687699164462 | 60.2458910761025 |
| 137 | 54.6521621637968 | 44.9095238625536 | 64.39480046504 |
| 138 | 55.4407673079056 | 44.8013154063952 | 66.080219209416 |
| 139 | 53.6651335456204 | 42.619819500653 | 64.7104475905877 |
| 140 | 54.2632771140003 | 42.3696198275681 | 66.1569344004326 |
| 141 | 52.648055180037 | 40.3899302645288 | 64.9061800955453 |
| 142 | 50.10091979972 | 37.7229451816076 | 62.4788944178323 |
| 143 | 48.2972333281268 | 33.4219328681572 | 63.1725337880964 |
