Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[216])
204	5.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
205	7.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
206	6.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
207	8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
208	14.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
209	14.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
210	17.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
211	17.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
212	17.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
213	14.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
214	10.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
215	6.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
216	4.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
217	6.5	6.2279	1.5989	10.8569	0.4541	0.8162	0.3403	0.8162
218	6.1	6.1904	1.5257	10.855	0.4849	0.4482	0.3989	0.8101
219	6.3	7.5695	2.8904	12.2487	0.2974	0.7309	0.4285	0.9269
220	9.3	14.0495	9.2965	18.8025	0.0251	0.9993	0.4589	1
221	16.4	14.4423	9.6841	19.2004	0.21	0.9829	0.4741	1
222	16.1	17.3944	12.6342	22.1546	0.297	0.6589	0.4827	1
223	18	17.1361	12.3729	21.8992	0.3611	0.6651	0.4895	1
224	17.6	17.1597	12.3961	21.9233	0.4281	0.3648	0.4934	1
225	14	14.0737	9.31	18.8375	0.4879	0.0734	0.4957	1
226	10.5	10.4838	5.7199	15.2477	0.4973	0.074	0.4973	0.9957
227	6.9	6.7898	2.0258	11.5537	0.4819	0.0634	0.4983	0.8658
228	2.8	4.0934	-0.6705	8.8574	0.2973	0.1241	0.4989	0.4989
229	0.7	6.2238	-0.4247	12.8722	0.0517	0.8436	0.4675	0.7344
230	3.6	6.1878	-0.486	12.8615	0.2236	0.9465	0.5103	0.7301
231	6.7	7.5679	0.8839	14.2519	0.3996	0.8777	0.645	0.8454
232	12.5	14.0485	7.3123	20.7847	0.3262	0.9837	0.9165	0.9981
233	14.4	14.4416	7.7018	21.1815	0.4952	0.7138	0.2845	0.9987
234	16.5	17.394	10.6527	24.1353	0.3975	0.808	0.6466	0.9999
235	18.7	17.1358	10.3924	23.8792	0.3247	0.5733	0.4008	0.9999
236	19.4	17.1595	10.4158	23.9032	0.2575	0.3272	0.4491	0.9999
237	15.8	14.0736	7.3298	20.8175	0.3079	0.0608	0.5085	0.9981
238	11.3	10.4837	3.7397	17.2277	0.4062	0.0612	0.4981	0.9682
239	9.7	6.7897	0.0457	13.5337	0.1988	0.095	0.4872	0.7828
240	2.9	4.0934	-2.6506	10.8374	0.3644	0.0516	0.6465	0.4992

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
217	0.3792	0.0437	0	0.074	0	0
218	0.3845	-0.0146	0.0291	0.0082	0.0411	0.2027
219	0.3154	-0.1677	0.0753	1.6117	0.5647	0.7514
220	0.1726	-0.3381	0.141	22.5581	6.063	2.4623
221	0.1681	0.1356	0.1399	3.8327	5.6169	2.37
222	0.1396	-0.0744	0.129	1.6755	4.96	2.2271
223	0.1418	0.0504	0.1178	0.7463	4.3581	2.0876
224	0.1416	0.0257	0.1063	0.1939	3.8376	1.959
225	0.1727	-0.0052	0.095	0.0054	3.4118	1.8471
226	0.2318	0.0015	0.0857	3e-04	3.0706	1.7523
227	0.358	0.0162	0.0794	0.0122	2.7926	1.6711
228	0.5938	-0.316	0.0991	1.6729	2.6993	1.6429
229	0.545	-0.8875	0.1597	30.5121	4.8387	2.1997
230	0.5503	-0.4182	0.1782	6.6965	4.9714	2.2297
231	0.4506	-0.1147	0.174	0.7532	4.6902	2.1657
232	0.2446	-0.1102	0.17	2.3978	4.5469	2.1324
233	0.2381	-0.0029	0.1602	0.0017	4.2796	2.0687
234	0.1977	-0.0514	0.1541	0.7993	4.0862	2.0214
235	0.2008	0.0913	0.1508	2.4466	3.9999	2
236	0.2005	0.1306	0.1498	5.0198	4.0509	2.0127
237	0.2445	0.1227	0.1485	2.9803	3.9999	2
238	0.3282	0.0779	0.1453	0.6663	3.8484	1.9617
239	0.5068	0.4286	0.1576	8.4698	4.0493	2.0123
240	0.8406	-0.2915	0.1632	1.4242	3.94	1.9849