| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.955476297029324 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 27951 | 23606.7585227273 | 4344.24147727272 |
| 14 | 29781 | 28949.1199494997 | 831.880050500306 |
| 15 | 32914 | 32239.3782863910 | 674.621713609042 |
| 16 | 33488 | 32886.8383432057 | 601.161656794298 |
| 17 | 35652 | 35211.3590569555 | 440.640943044462 |
| 18 | 36488 | 36197.7143668685 | 290.285633131498 |
| 19 | 35387 | 33596.7837420271 | 1790.21625797287 |
| 20 | 35676 | 35703.6262764101 | -27.6262764100757 |
| 21 | 34844 | 33594.8550241251 | 1249.14497587493 |
| 22 | 32447 | 34103.6334401268 | -1656.63344012683 |
| 23 | 31068 | 32019.8427885528 | -951.842788552829 |
| 24 | 29010 | 30318.0878989256 | -1308.08789892564 |
| 25 | 29812 | 29798.6626342383 | 13.3373657617267 |
| 26 | 30951 | 30846.5645008638 | 104.435499136187 |
| 27 | 32974 | 33434.7650880421 | -460.765088042121 |
| 28 | 32936 | 32994.1192541694 | -58.1192541694181 |
| 29 | 34012 | 34681.5657078299 | -669.565707829883 |
| 30 | 32946 | 34600.4505028695 | -1654.45050286947 |
| 31 | 31948 | 30208.1530617198 | 1739.84693828016 |
| 32 | 30599 | 32185.9318239906 | -1586.93182399058 |
| 33 | 27691 | 28644.1276651643 | -953.127665164306 |
| 34 | 25073 | 26919.3107579642 | -1846.31075796425 |
| 35 | 23406 | 24685.6678147397 | -1279.66781473968 |
| 36 | 22248 | 22654.8225315389 | -406.822531538946 |
| 37 | 22896 | 23055.3697087059 | -159.369708705879 |
| 38 | 25317 | 23942.3100855799 | 1374.68991442011 |
| 39 | 26558 | 27719.0438346965 | -1161.04383469645 |
| 40 | 26471 | 26627.2255405919 | -156.225540591859 |
| 41 | 27543 | 28193.7099027009 | -650.709902700863 |
| 42 | 26198 | 28086.7602545280 | -1888.76025452795 |
| 43 | 24725 | 23621.7120905697 | 1103.28790943032 |
| 44 | 25005 | 24843.1532796539 | 161.846720346100 |
| 45 | 23462 | 23000.4848768039 | 461.515123196074 |
| 46 | 20780 | 22587.5578039234 | -1807.55780392343 |
| 47 | 19815 | 20416.1714318193 | -601.17143181929 |
| 48 | 19761 | 19072.4756642477 | 688.524335752296 |
| 49 | 21454 | 20530.6183261198 | 923.38167388018 |
| 50 | 23899 | 22520.4039996299 | 1378.59600037009 |
| 51 | 24939 | 26187.9696650275 | -1248.96966502745 |
| 52 | 23580 | 25056.8785554112 | -1476.87855541118 |
| 53 | 24562 | 25339.4939903978 | -777.49399039782 |
| 54 | 24696 | 25056.2825654625 | -360.282565462487 |
| 55 | 23785 | 22184.8756676705 | 1600.12433232954 |
| 56 | 23812 | 23839.1158344686 | -27.1158344685791 |
| 57 | 21917 | 21829.2405364253 | 87.7594635747373 |
| 58 | 19713 | 20958.1712608702 | -1245.17126087015 |
| 59 | 19282 | 19377.8446889211 | -95.844688921119 |
| 60 | 18788 | 18574.3986777217 | 213.601322278340 |
| 61 | 21453 | 19589.2203756690 | 1863.77962433104 |
| 62 | 24482 | 22497.8018280704 | 1984.19817192957 |
| 63 | 27474 | 26627.0170606004 | 846.982939399564 |
| 64 | 27264 | 27488.4116364712 | -224.411636471235 |
| 65 | 27349 | 28998.8687159533 | -1649.86871595327 |
| 66 | 30632 | 27900.6997161820 | 2731.30028381796 |
| 67 | 29429 | 28070.5115255988 | 1358.48847440118 |
| 68 | 30084 | 29421.4235997856 | 662.576400214424 |
| 69 | 26290 | 28075.6475578758 | -1785.64755787580 |
| 70 | 24379 | 25355.2352669807 | -976.235266980722 |
| 71 | 23335 | 24083.0429375168 | -748.042937516828 |
| 72 | 21346 | 22670.2146411082 | -1324.21464110823 |
| 73 | 21106 | 22289.1616854156 | -1183.16168541560 |
| 74 | 24514 | 22291.8244175601 | 2222.17558243989 |
| 75 | 28353 | 26597.7883918342 | 1755.21160816575 |
| 76 | 30805 | 28279.2714791332 | 2525.72852086683 |
| 77 | 31348 | 32353.9556648559 | -1005.95566485592 |
| 78 | 34556 | 32066.0961899662 | 2489.90381003381 |
| 79 | 33855 | 31944.1367252586 | 1910.86327474136 |
| 80 | 34787 | 33791.8452457619 | 995.154754238058 |
| 81 | 32529 | 32654.8359417111 | -125.835941711081 |
| 82 | 29998 | 31556.3723400160 | -1558.37234001595 |
| 83 | 29257 | 29738.1218031421 | -481.121803142105 |
| 84 | 28155 | 28554.6770260139 | -399.677026013924 |
| 85 | 30466 | 29063.2780471583 | 1402.72195284168 |
| 86 | 35704 | 31688.3095275626 | 4015.69047243741 |
| 87 | 39327 | 37687.1435023099 | 1639.85649769007 |
| 88 | 39351 | 39292.7137819631 | 58.2862180368757 |
| 89 | 42234 | 40852.5716753730 | 1381.42832462696 |
| 90 | 43630 | 43001.4496232287 | 628.55037677128 |
| 91 | 43722 | 41075.2300438433 | 2646.76995615667 |
| 92 | 43121 | 43585.3092210899 | -464.309221089861 |
| 93 | 37985 | 41003.9060254657 | -3018.90602546565 |
| 94 | 37135 | 37077.4007080056 | 57.599291994411 |
| 95 | 34646 | 36851.1359451182 | -2205.13594511821 |
| 96 | 33026 | 34024.0627426539 | -998.062742653878 |
| 97 | 35087 | 34041.1698718371 | 1045.83012816290 |
| 98 | 38846 | 36441.5387073955 | 2404.46129260454 |
| 99 | 42013 | 40795.1004655312 | 1217.89953446879 |
| 100 | 43908 | 41927.0835031015 | 1980.91649689853 |
| 101 | 42868 | 45382.8802420564 | -2514.88024205639 |
| 102 | 44423 | 43775.4067944103 | 647.59320558967 |
| 103 | 44167 | 41957.2407956715 | 2209.75920432855 |
| 104 | 43636 | 43911.2497927933 | -275.249792793271 |
| 105 | 44382 | 41396.7482903085 | 2985.25170969150 |
| 106 | 42142 | 43344.0507813587 | -1202.05078135866 |
| 107 | 43452 | 41813.4748792327 | 1638.52512076731 |
| 108 | 36912 | 42712.6720877668 | -5800.67208776683 |
| 109 | 42413 | 38232.0015028872 | 4180.99849711277 |
| 110 | 45344 | 43688.4406925856 | 1655.55930741443 |
| 111 | 44873 | 47273.6142317984 | -2400.61423179836 |
| 112 | 47510 | 44982.1654758229 | 2527.83452417714 |
| 113 | 49554 | 48760.3599076388 | 793.640092361231 |
| 114 | 47369 | 50454.9042462039 | -3085.90424620392 |
| 115 | 45998 | 45139.0233421756 | 858.97665782438 |
| 116 | 48140 | 45691.7498312045 | 2448.25016879552 |
| 117 | 48441 | 45924.6575874102 | 2516.34241258985 |
| 118 | 44928 | 47237.4941472631 | -2309.49414726311 |
| 119 | 40454 | 44775.255316445 | -4321.25531644498 |
| 120 | 38661 | 39648.8029748707 | -987.802974870654 |
| 121 | 37246 | 40211.1356843402 | -2965.13568434021 |
| 122 | 36843 | 38727.1711439165 | -1884.17114391654 |
| 123 | 36424 | 38749.6202731522 | -2325.62027315225 |
| 124 | 37594 | 36749.2592556008 | 844.740744399249 |
| 125 | 38144 | 38842.0847173858 | -698.08471738582 |
| 126 | 38737 | 38938.5896787552 | -201.589678755248 |
| 127 | 34560 | 36554.2436827262 | -1994.24368272619 |
| 128 | 36080 | 34451.5461078987 | 1628.45389210132 |
| 129 | 33508 | 33904.1896721675 | -396.189672167457 |
| 130 | 35462 | 32219.3067471215 | 3242.69325287851 |
| 131 | 33374 | 34972.4803170590 | -1598.48031705896 |
| 132 | 32110 | 32595.9925914652 | -485.992591465169 |
| 133 | 35533 | 33549.7550536512 | 1983.24494634876 |
| 134 | 35532 | 36841.9794586496 | -1309.97945864956 |
| 135 | 37903 | 37393.4001832024 | 509.599816797563 |
| 136 | 36763 | 38243.1809707146 | -1480.18097071461 |
| 137 | 40399 | 38045.9065386635 | 2353.09346133649 |
| 138 | 44164 | 41079.8457254416 | 3084.15427455839 |
| 139 | 44496 | 41755.1346005092 | 2740.86539949083 |
| 140 | 43110 | 44338.0174283625 | -1228.01742836252 |
| 141 | 43880 | 40971.2257241070 | 2908.77427589295 |
| 142 | 43930 | 42606.1740564691 | 1323.82594353094 |
| 143 | 44327 | 43310.3684211231 | 1016.63157887689 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | 43482.0901992283 | 40030.8883238681 | 46933.2920745885 |
| 145 | 45010.1466617889 | 40236.8275953321 | 49783.4657282457 |
| 146 | 46260.8009841238 | 40459.218834752 | 52062.3831334957 |
| 147 | 48144.8904382033 | 41471.6501486873 | 54818.1307277193 |
| 148 | 48419.1682710349 | 40975.6532084231 | 55862.6833336468 |
| 149 | 49806.8432440332 | 41665.6088773638 | 57948.0776107027 |
| 150 | 50625.006938311 | 41841.3017099493 | 59408.7121666727 |
| 151 | 48338.1750157497 | 38955.8907488742 | 57720.4592826252 |
| 152 | 48125.516560889 | 38180.6164311658 | 58070.4166906122 |
| 153 | 46116.2516868647 | 35638.9037821762 | 56593.5995915531 |
| 154 | 44901.3673764284 | 33917.3517336141 | 55885.3830192426 |
| 155 | 44327 | 32858.6792786695 | 55795.3207213305 |
